PA-06: Safe GOP?

[MarkWarner08]

Chuck Todd and other political experts have pointed to Jim Gerlach's 2006 reelection campaign as the best-run reelection campaign of the cycle. Despite a $3 million onslaught from the DCCC, the landslide wins of Democratic Governor Rendell and Bob Casey and the unpopularity of President Bush, Gerlach prevailed with 50.6% the vote.

Could Mr. 51% survive 2008 without a serious challenge? If Andy Dinniman, who hails from Ches. Co (a Gerlach stronghold) decides not run, expect Gerlach to breeze to victory.

[MarkWarner08]

Gerlach will be just as vulnerable next year.

Sure. But who will beat him?

[MarkWarner08]

Gerlach is one of the better Republicans

Dave

Is Gerlach really a moderate, or does he just vote the district?

 He votes with the Democrats on environmental and social issues when the margin on the bill is lopsided or when his vote doesn't matter. Has he ever cast the deciding vote on an important bill against the wishes of the leadership?

[MarkWarner08]

Gerlach is one of the better Republicans

Dave

Is Gerlach really a moderate, or does he just vote the district?

 He votes with the Democrats on environmental and social issues when the margin on the bill is lopsided or when his vote doesn't matter. Has he ever cast the deciding vote on an important bill against the wishes of the leadership?

Has Baron Hill?

http://projects.washingtonpost.com/congress/107/house/2/votes/264/

Baron Hill cast the deciding vote in favor of the renewal of the Andean Trade Preference Act, which was opposed by the Democratic leadership and Big Labor.

Jim Gerlach, on the other hand, has not cast a deciding vote on an important issue against the leadership's position. When Tom DeLay needed Jim Gerlach's vote to pass the Medicare bill and CAFTA, two of the most substantive pieces of legislation passed by the 108th and the 109th Congress, Jim Gerlach voted yes.

The bottom line: Baron Hill stood up to his party's leadership, while Jim Gerlach acquiesced to his party's leadership.

[MarkWarner08]

Take KY-3 and PA-6, which have similar partisan makeups.

That's just simply wrong.  KY-03 is a historically Democratic area, PA-06 is a historically Republican area.  Not to mention party registration probably matches that analysis.  Your analysis would be more correct if you compared, say KY-03 with NM-01, for example.

Furthermore, PA-06 is really an amalgamation of non-connected communities with divergent political beliefs. It includes the Main Line, home to country club Republicans and pro-choice suburban women, rural areas with blue-collar Democrats, exurbs teeming with church-going Republicans and minority-majority precincts in Mont. Co. It's kind of a cross-section of Pennsylvania itself.

[MarkWarner08]

It's kind of a cross-section of Pennsylvania itself.

No. It's a cross-section of something for sure, but isn't representative of Pennsylvania much; isn't working class enough.

Yep.  That's the reason why I should have made the comment earlier that the vote for CAFTA would probably be supported in the CD (if they understand what CAFTA was) - free trade support tends to be strongest in upper-income suburban areas.

I wasn't disputing his position or whether it resonated with his district. I was simply pointing out that, unlike Baron Hill, he's not cast a high-profile deciding vote in dissent of the GOP leadership's position.

[MarkWarner08]

It's kind of a cross-section of Pennsylvania itself.

No. It's a cross-section of something for sure, but isn't representative of Pennsylvania much; isn't working class enough.

But it's the more microcosmic of the state as a whole than any of the other 17 CD's.  Where else do you have trust-funders, liberal intellectual types, Reagan Democrats, and minorities all place in one House district?

[MarkWarner08]

Gerlach's numbers have also been steadily decreasing. 

In line with the perception of the GOP in the country.

Don't think so.  Turnout matters.

Mattered 0.4% worth in 2004 as turnout increased, and somehow he lost another 0.4% as turnout decreased in 2006. That's not supposed to happen for a Republican incumbent.

Two-term Republican incumbents rarely face the a confluence of factors such as the kind that nearly toppled Jim Gerlach in 2006.  All things considered, Dan Wofford was a stronger foe than Lois Murphy. Unfortunately for him, he ran in the best election year for the GOP since 1994.

[MarkWarner08]

The Democrats are still without a credible candidate in PA-06. Jim Gerlach is the single luckiest man in Congress. His State House colleagues drew a district specially tailored for Jim Gerlach. A grateful Gerlach seized the opportunity and ran unopposed in the GOP primary.

After winning the GOP primary, he runs against a formidable Democrat (Dan Wofford) in 2002, a tremendous year for Republicans, and wins largely because the DCCC and other Democratic groups ignored this race. In 2004 Gerlach ekes out  a win against a far-left pro-choice activist with no elected experience. In 2006 Gerlach was named to the Philly Trio of vulnerable Republican Congressman.

Fortunately for him, his challenger wasn't a military vet, rather, his opponent was the same out-of-touch liberal he underperformed against two years ago. Despite three millions in negative ads from the DCCC, Rendell's coattails, and Bush's approvals in the 30's, Gerlach wins.

When the GOP is strong and Gerlach has no federal record to attack, the Democrats nominate a strong candidate. When the GOP is weaker and Gerlach has a record replete with politically untenable votes, the Democrats nominate the same inexperienced woman twice.

Now the DCCC has a 30-1 COH edge over the NRCC and they still can't find anybody credible to run against Gerlach. Truly astounding.

[MarkWarner08]

As long as he's guaranteed 51%, he's always safe. 

Anyway, PA 6 has been a major failure for the DCCC. Gerlach will never be completely safe but this is as lucky as he'll get. I'm happy for him. 

Personally, I always preferred Mike Fitzgerald to Jim Gerlach, but I guess it's helpful (for ideological reasons) that the GOP has at least one Rep. from the Philly suburbs.

[MarkWarner08]

As someone who is right on the border of PA-6, I assure you: The two major guys running are COMPLETE nobodies. One of them ran the Casey campaign in 06, and the other has never held any elected office. Its bad gang, its bad. Ive talked to them both and they seem personable and determined, but they are both gonna be weak.

Yeah. Unlike Lois Murphy, they lack money and connection. My bet is Gerlach will break 60%.

[MarkWarner08]

As long as he's guaranteed 51%, he's always safe. 

Anyway, PA 6 has been a major failure for the DCCC. Gerlach will never be completely safe but this is as lucky as he'll get. I'm happy for him. 

Personally, I always preferred Mike Fitzgerald to Jim Gerlach, but I guess it's helpful (for ideological reasons) that the GOP has at least one Rep. from the Philly suburbs.

Oh, I love Fitz. He definitley is far better than Gerlach, in my opinion. They just don't compare (partly because I had personal interaction with Fitz during and after the 2006 campaign as opposed to Gerlach whom I have never met).

Yeah. Unlike Lois Murphy, they lack money and connection. My bet is Gerlach will break 60%.

Eh, 60% is pushing it. I say 55%.

You accusing me of overestimating Gerlach's vote share? What has happened to this world?

[MarkWarner08]

My bet is Gerlach will break 60%.

Not when Hillary/Obama wins the district solidly.

In retrospect, I agree that number is too high. He'll probably win 54-56% of the vote.
Do you agree with me that Chris Carney has a surprisingly strong chance of being reelected? If he can win in November, he only has to survive one more election until he gets a safer district.

[MarkWarner08]

My bet is Gerlach will break 60%.

Not when Hillary/Obama wins the district solidly.

I don't know about solidly...

Hillary/Obama will beat McCain by 2-3 points, Romney by 4-6 points, and Huckabee by 6-8 points.

[MarkWarner08]

Do you agree with me that Chris Carney has a surprisingly strong chance of being reelected? If he can win in November, he only has to survive one more election until he gets a safer district.

No. I think he has a less than 50% chance of being re-elected actually. I'd like to see some fundraising and see how large Meuser's primary win is first however. I don't see him winning this district in 2008, not with the partisanship, not with the GOP nominee getting in the upper 50s-60%, not with a mildly favorable Democratic year rather than an awesome Democratic year + scandal tarred incumbent, etc.

I think Carney is actually going to be favored. The GOP field is full of weak unknowns (unless Vince Sweeney gets in). You think Meuser will win the primary? I think that's who I'll end up backing.

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Are you kidding? 

I really hope you are. The Dems won the House 102-101. That's the way it was. Voting for Perzel as Speaker wouldn't have changed the make up of the House. I don't know why people don't see that.

Anyway, word is that we're getting the State House back even though we have quite a few retirements on our side that will result in Dem pickups.

Who cares about the will of the voters or election dynamics, when we can take solace in the "word" of pundits. The DLCC has an excellent plan for holding and picking up State House seats in PA.  I expect the Democrats to hold the PA State House in 2008.

[MarkWarner08]

Do you agree with me that Chris Carney has a surprisingly strong chance of being reelected? If he can win in November, he only has to survive one more election until he gets a safer district.

No. I think he has a less than 50% chance of being re-elected actually. I'd like to see some fundraising and see how large Meuser's primary win is first however. I don't see him winning this district in 2008, not with the partisanship, not with the GOP nominee getting in the upper 50s-60%, not with a mildly favorable Democratic year rather than an awesome Democratic year + scandal tarred incumbent, etc.

And I would count on holding the PA House through two more elections. We saw a small swing last time which Keystone Phil's boy turned into a Democratic House majority. They'll need to pick up a few seats in the next two elections and hold the ones they currently have.

3% win last time, more favorable Democratic year than 2004, no incumbency for the Republican, more suburban growth=better for Democrats, etc. I'd say that turns into an 8% win this year. More for Obama, less if it's McCain/Rudy.

I've said before that Sherwood winning 47% last year is a testament to the Republican nature of this disjointed district. Meuser is probably guaranteed 48-49% of the vote in a Presidential turnout environment. I think it's possible that Carney will hold enough independents to eke out a 51-49 win.

It's important to note  that Rep. Carney has given voters few reasons to fire him. His voting record, while slightly to the left, is Tim Holdenesque, which bodes well for Carney's chances.

[MarkWarner08]

Who cares about the will of the voters or election dynamics, when we can take solace in the "word" of pundits.

Uh, I'm simply saying what people expect to happen. I'm not saying the voice of the people means any less. 

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Do you have access to that information? If so, how in the world did you get it? Are you on the inside or something?

The DLCC had several operatives on the ground in Pennsylvania in 2006 and they expect to have more in 2008. The DLCC has worked in conjunction with the Democratic Party of Pennsylvania to identify and target winnable GOP House seats. There's nothing sinister or secretive about this...

[MarkWarner08]

Who cares about the will of the voters or election dynamics, when we can take solace in the "word" of pundits.

Uh, I'm simply saying what people expect to happen. I'm not saying the voice of the people means any less. 

You must be logged in to read this quote.

....


Do you have access to that information? If so, how in the world did you get it? Are you on the inside or something?

The DLCC had several operatives on the ground in Pennsylvania in 2006 and they expect to have more in 2008. The DLCC has worked in conjunction with the Democratic Party of Pennsylvania to identify and target winnable GOP House seats. There's nothing sinister or secretive about this...

I've never worked for the DLCC, but family members have contributed to them in the past. I'm fortunate that I have family members who are very involved in politics.

Well, it seemed secretive because you said they have a "plan." Do you work with the DLCC? If so, what did they say about PA that makes you so sure? Start talking about certain seats, boy (though if you'd like, we can speak about that privately since it doesn't belong here). I'm interested since I am heavily involved in the SE.