AR Congressional Races 2014

[RogueBeaver]

Westerman's a slam dunk, Darr would be pulled in by PVI. Rankin would be very weak but she'll probably place last in the primary.

Tolbert points out that all the primary action will be on the Pub side, plus there might be more Pub than Dem primary voters next year depending on turnout.

Boozman's hoping for an issues-based campaign.

[RogueBeaver]

Wow: Pryor personally doubled down on voting records. "He's more interesting in placating some national conservative, hard-right interests. In 7 short months he's managed to alienate farmers, women students... I think that there will be a very clear difference between Mr. Cotton and myself." 

[Keystone Phil]

Remember in 2008 when Pryor didn't even have a Republican opponent and beating him or Blanche was beyond fantasy? LOL

But people here still insist on predicting 2016 Senate races with certainty...

[windjammer]

Remember in 2008 when Pryor didn't even have a Republican opponent and beating him or Blanche was beyond fantasy? LOL

But people here still insist on predicting 2016 Senate races with certainty...

People in Arkansas seem to frequently change their mind .

[RogueBeaver]

Ark Times got their hands on a Dem poll which has Pryor 43, Cotton 35, 21 undecided. Would definitely like a real poll, though Pryor's # matching his approval rating seems plausible.

[windjammer]

Ark Times got their hands on a Dem poll which has Pryor 43, Cotton 35, 21 undecided. Would definitely like a real poll, though Pryor's # matching his approval rating seems plausible.

Well, I suppose the main reason is lack of Cotton's recognition?

[RogueBeaver]

Yep. In fact that poll almost exactly mirrors Pryor's approvals in February of 42/35/23. Of course Pryor should have much higher name ID than Cotton, so this looks to me like Pryor's bumping his head on a ceiling.

[windjammer]

I suppose the 4th district will be really decisive in Arkansas in 2014 :
-Will Pryor be reelected?
-Will Ross be elected?

I guess the 4th district will give us the answer.

[RogueBeaver]

Yep, CD4 is the state's swing region. Pubs need to at least break even here plus do well in most other parts of the state, like 2010. Cotton essentially tracked Romney's performance, so we'll see just how swingy it is. I wouldn't be surprised to see a lot of Blue Dog Dems in that district split their tickets between Ross and Cotton though. More interesting maps for Miles at any rate.

[windjammer]

Yep, CD4 is the state's swing region. Pubs need to at least break even here plus do well in most other parts of the state, like 2010. Cotton essentially tracked Romney's performance, so we'll see just how swingy it is. I wouldn't be surprised to see a lot of Blue Dog Dems in that district split their tickets between Ross and Cotton though. More interesting maps for Miles at any rate.

Blue dog voting for Cotton and Ross, or voting for Pryor and Hutchinson!

Yep, if the dems win, I suppose Miles will make new maps and will ask the dem winner to sign his map .

[windjammer]

http://dailycaller.com/2013/08/01/tom-cotton-at-harvard-hated-libertarians-loved-bill-clinton/


I have the feeling he will love Rand Paul if elected haha!

[RogueBeaver]

Here's the Clinton article. He praises Clinton's skills and sincerity but also said Clinton never had a strong opponent in his entire career and most of his gubernatorial agenda was focus-grouped Permanent Campaigning. None of which is inaccurate.

I don't know why the MSM is making a big deal out of this: you can find everything he ever wrote for the Crimson with a quick Google. I looked through it 2 weeks ago: he was just as severely conservative then as now.

[RogueBeaver]

Meanwhile in 2013, Pryor's sticking to voting records.

[windjammer]

Krazen, are you sure you haven't forgotten a part of this poll? I just see the beginning, but I don't see the poll between Cotton and Pryor for example!

[Mad Deadly Worldwide Communist Gangster Computer God]

"Mark Pryor recently voted to support immigration reform legislation that offers amnesty to illegal aliens."

"Mark Pryor supported Obamacare which in some states has increased insurance premiums by 88% for people who buy their own health insurance."

"Mark Pryor supported President Obama's stimulus plan, which increased government spending by 1 trillion dollars."

Ah, the fresh smell of push poll.

[windjammer]

http://politics.nytimes.com/congress/votes/113/house/1/426

Even Justin Amash voted for this bill: LOL.
Cotton will easily alienate young voters.

[RogueBeaver]

If Pryor wants to continue deep-diving on votes, then he's setting himself up on Obamacare, guns, and just about everything else on the WH's agenda. Not that I'm complaining.

[windjammer]

If Pryor wants to continue deep-diving on votes, then he's setting himself up on Obamacare, guns, and just about everything else on the WH's agenda. Not that I'm complaining.

He didn't vote for the final health care bill. So he could do his moderate hero. And for guns, yes, he can be hurt I guess.

[RogueBeaver]

If Pryor wants to continue deep-diving on votes, then he's setting himself up on Obamacare, guns, and just about everything else on the WH's agenda. Not that I'm complaining.

He didn't vote for the final health care bill. So he could do his moderate hero. And for guns, yes, he can be hurt I guess.

That's what Blanche Lincoln did, voted for the 2009 bill but against the 2010 one.

[windjammer]

If Pryor wants to continue deep-diving on votes, then he's setting himself up on Obamacare, guns, and just about everything else on the WH's agenda. Not that I'm complaining.

He didn't vote for the final health care bill. So he could do his moderate hero. And for guns, yes, he can be hurt I guess.

That's what Blanche Lincoln did, voted for the 2009 bill but against the 2010 one.

But she had a challenge from the left, her!

Hhonestly, Arkansas is the best pick up for the reps. But if he continues to be too far on the right, he will have problems. Arkansas is a social conservative state, so I guess they're not too far on the right economically.

[RogueBeaver]

Pryor gave an interview to AP which is completely incoherent. He thinks Cotton's primary motivation is anti-Obama, and said "I hope Arkansas doesn't waste one of its Senate seats just to send someone to Washington to oppose a president for two years." In the same breath: "The other thing is if you look at the president's policies, he just doesn't offer a lot to states like Arkansas,"  "He doesn't offer a lot to rural America. I've encouraged the White House to remember rural America and remember small -town America. They just don't have a lot of policies that are geared toward middle America."

Needless to say Pryor voted for all those policies and last year voted with Obama and Reid 91% of the time. I told Miles earlier this week that I thought Pryor had either decided to run on his record, figuring he might as well defend it instead of mealymouth like Romney or hiding like Lincoln- and/or that his famous "IQ test" quote was entirely self-referential.

Pryor on Obamacare just 2 months ago: "I think it was the right vote. I think it was good for Arkansas."

[tmthforu94]

Haha, he basically says Obama's policies are bad for Arkansas, yet has voted with Obama over 90% of the time. I'm becoming more and more optimistic about this race.

[windjammer]

I read the article: Well, he both criticizes Obama and Cotton. Nothing shocked me.
Honestly, I think he's right to attack on voting records. Even if he voted with Obama 91% of the time, I suppose Obama's goal isn't destroying Arkansas? So except if he's stupid, except for Obamacare, I suppose he voted to be reelected!
Why should he attack Cotton?
Well: his vote against farm bill, probably popular in Arkansas, after Boozman was a co sponsor with Pryor. His vote against Violence against Women act. His vote against Student loan bill, backed by 400 members of Congress. Oh, see this video: http://dailycaller.com/2013/08/01/tom-cotton-at-harvard-hated-libertarians-loved-bill-clinton/

"women could impair combat missions", with his corruption of blood bill, I think it won't be difficult to tie Cotton with extremism.

So, Cotton is totally a far

[RogueBeaver]

Tmth: Just wait for the debates.

[Mad Deadly Worldwide Communist Gangster Computer God]

I don't think using the "IQ test" quote in full context would necessarily hurt Pryor in Arkansas.

Then again, there's no reason why they should show it in full context...