AR Congressional Races 2014

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http://www.upi.com/blog/2013/05/23/Tom-Cotton-would-punish-family-members-of-sanctions-violators/8361369336333/

A little crazy?

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http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/senate-races/305527-nra-has-pryors-back-for-now


Finally, his gun vote can save him!

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Pryor was one of the nay votes in both 2006 and 2007, if memory serves me. It illustrates the point, just like with Healthcare, that he may talk a good game but when Harry Reid needs him, he'll be there.

Cotton should hammer that point on Healthcare and Immigration, and imply that it could be the same way on guns or anything else down the road.

Healthcare: Pryor voted against during the final vote.
Immigration: 68 senators voted this bill.
Playing on this points risks to be hard but you're right, he should try!

They're toying with him. Pryor's rated C, Cotton A. Or to put it graphically...

Yes but strategically, I think it would be better for the NRA to endorse Pryor. I mean, Arkansas is really becoming red, being only pro-life won't save him anymore. He will have to become the new Joe Manchin if he wants to be reelected. According to me, the NRA will stay neutral. But this association has nothing to lose to support Pryor, with or without his support, Cotton will be extremely pro gun if he wins! So supporting pro gun democrats is probably the right thing to do for the NRA, strategically.

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Pryor risks to be much more pro-gun in order to win office againn, he probably dealt with the NRA.  And yes, you're right, "The NRA only cares about having folks in Congress who will vote how they want them to on gun control." So strategically, if they don't support Pryor and support Cotton, it's not sure Pryor will lose and will be less pro gun because he hasn't their official support. But if they support Pryor, his prospects to win again will be bigger and he will be probable much more pro gun because he would have dealt with the NRA, not supporting Cotton changes nothing because he's always strongly pro-gun.

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Pryor was one of the nay votes in both 2006 and 2007, if memory serves me. It illustrates the point, just like with Healthcare, that he may talk a good game but when Harry Reid needs him, he'll be there.

Cotton should hammer that point on Healthcare and Immigration, and imply that it could be the same way on guns or anything else down the road.

Healthcare: Pryor voted against during the final vote.
Immigration: 68 senators voted this bill.
Playing on this points risks to be hard but you're right, he should try!

We crossed that vote Aye on Cloture but nay on final vote bridge in 2004. It doesn't work. Cloture vote is what matters.  

As for immigration, so what? Just because 68 people vote for trash, doesn't change the fact that it is trash.

The point is all these Democrats like Pryor and Landrieu voted no last time because it was Bush's immigration reform effort and they promised they opposed amnesty, but when it came down to it with a Democrat in the White house and in the leadership, when they need their votes, their state's view came in second to the agenda. I don't see any downside to running against the immigration bill in either LA or AR.

Yes Yankee, I agree with you, cloture vote is what matters. But I mean, if they attack him, he will be able to block this attack with "I oppose the final vote". It's just vicious, I agree, and politically well played. Landrieu was a good political player with health care: she has voted the bill but has added an amendment which permits Louisiana to win 300 millions dollards for Katrina. The results: she manages to mobilize the black community because of her vote in favor of health care but doesn't ruin her political carreer: "Louisiana wins 300 millions!". They're just good political players...

And for immigration, they are hypocrital, but it's not really a surprise? It's politics...

Well, there lies the problem with Pryor if his vote on certain issues can be bought. I understand your point - a fair one. I imagine there is a decent chance the NRA will just skip this race completely since it is essentially a win-win situation for them.

They will probably skip the race completely. And Pryor can be bought, it's sure!

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I really don't want darr to go for the 4th district.  I rather have a Dem than him.

Why do you dislike him?

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Initially, I thought Cotton would be a strong candidate. Now, it seems he's just an another tea party member who risks to alienate voters with his far right speech.

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Yes it's arkansas, a social conservative state, not a libertarian conservative state, if you see the difference.

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Lol goodbye. Maybe he will successfully explode an opportunity for the democrats again. He's a poison.

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Yes, too far on the left. He should move in an another region. I don't know, Vermont?

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Pryor's campaign responds with not hopscotch, but Cotton's voting record. Weird tack for an R+14 state.

I suppose farm bill is popular?
Honestly, maybe it's a R+14 state, but I don't think it's a Ted Cruz state. It's a social conservative, they're not so extreme on economy like Cotton.

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Remember in 2008 when Pryor didn't even have a Republican opponent and beating him or Blanche was beyond fantasy? LOL

But people here still insist on predicting 2016 Senate races with certainty...

People in Arkansas seem to frequently change their mind .

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Ark Times got their hands on a Dem poll which has Pryor 43, Cotton 35, 21 undecided. Would definitely like a real poll, though Pryor's # matching his approval rating seems plausible.

Well, I suppose the main reason is lack of Cotton's recognition?

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I suppose the 4th district will be really decisive in Arkansas in 2014 :
-Will Pryor be reelected?
-Will Ross be elected?

I guess the 4th district will give us the answer.

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Yep, CD4 is the state's swing region. Pubs need to at least break even here plus do well in most other parts of the state, like 2010. Cotton essentially tracked Romney's performance, so we'll see just how swingy it is. I wouldn't be surprised to see a lot of Blue Dog Dems in that district split their tickets between Ross and Cotton though. More interesting maps for Miles at any rate.

Blue dog voting for Cotton and Ross, or voting for Pryor and Hutchinson!

Yep, if the dems win, I suppose Miles will make new maps and will ask the dem winner to sign his map .

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http://dailycaller.com/2013/08/01/tom-cotton-at-harvard-hated-libertarians-loved-bill-clinton/


I have the feeling he will love Rand Paul if elected haha!

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Krazen, are you sure you haven't forgotten a part of this poll? I just see the beginning, but I don't see the poll between Cotton and Pryor for example!

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http://politics.nytimes.com/congress/votes/113/house/1/426

Even Justin Amash voted for this bill: LOL.
Cotton will easily alienate young voters.

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If Pryor wants to continue deep-diving on votes, then he's setting himself up on Obamacare, guns, and just about everything else on the WH's agenda. Not that I'm complaining.

He didn't vote for the final health care bill. So he could do his moderate hero. And for guns, yes, he can be hurt I guess.

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If Pryor wants to continue deep-diving on votes, then he's setting himself up on Obamacare, guns, and just about everything else on the WH's agenda. Not that I'm complaining.

He didn't vote for the final health care bill. So he could do his moderate hero. And for guns, yes, he can be hurt I guess.

That's what Blanche Lincoln did, voted for the 2009 bill but against the 2010 one.

But she had a challenge from the left, her!

Hhonestly, Arkansas is the best pick up for the reps. But if he continues to be too far on the right, he will have problems. Arkansas is a social conservative state, so I guess they're not too far on the right economically.

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I read the article: Well, he both criticizes Obama and Cotton. Nothing shocked me.
Honestly, I think he's right to attack on voting records. Even if he voted with Obama 91% of the time, I suppose Obama's goal isn't destroying Arkansas? So except if he's stupid, except for Obamacare, I suppose he voted to be reelected!
Why should he attack Cotton?
Well: his vote against farm bill, probably popular in Arkansas, after Boozman was a co sponsor with Pryor. His vote against Violence against Women act. His vote against Student loan bill, backed by 400 members of Congress. Oh, see this video: http://dailycaller.com/2013/08/01/tom-cotton-at-harvard-hated-libertarians-loved-bill-clinton/

"women could impair combat missions", with his corruption of blood bill, I think it won't be difficult to tie Cotton with extremism.

So, Cotton is totally a far

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Well, this race will be really interesting. Personally, I have the feeling that Cotton will destroy himself and other posters think he will be really strong. Two opposite visions, one of us will be completely wrong. I hope it won't be me but I know I can often be wrong because of my lack of impartiality!

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I hope PPP will poll Arkansas. So few polls...

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http://www.arkansasbusiness.com/article/93940/bill-halters-exit-creates-hope-for-arkansas-democrats-ap-analysis

Griffin is popular? I guess Halter has no chance.

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Griffin's popular but more importantly, the Dems will be shut out federally. More accurately, the Dem establishment pathologically despises Halter and doesn't want him running for anything- not for Congress, nor are they keen on him being the nominee against Boozman in 2016. They'd prefer McDaniel.

Mcdaniel? I think his career is ended...
Honestly, Halter is just too far on the left to win...