Ohio Megathread

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Fitzgerald vs. Kasich = border between lean and likely Kasich

Cordrey vs. Kasich = toss-up

Sutton vs. Kasich = likely Kasich

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

With Fitzgerald's name recognition low at the moment, the key is for Kasich to define Fitzgerald, and define him quick. Kasich I think is favored thus far, but if he fails in that department, Fitzgerald could very well beat him.

Saying obvious things.

Sadly, Fitzgerald doesn't stand much of a chance.  We could pick up Treasurer and Auditor, but that's it as far as statewide offices go.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

With Fitzgerald's name recognition low at the moment, the key is for Kasich to define Fitzgerald, and define him quick. Kasich I think is favored thus far, but if he fails in that department, Fitzgerald could very well beat him.

Saying obvious things.

Sadly, Fitzgerald doesn't stand much of a chance.  We could pick up Treasurer and Auditor, but that's it as far as statewide offices go.

With a different candidate I think you guys would have a chance at Secretary of State too, though not with Nina Turner running. I also doubt Carney can be elected Auditor after his "haphazard" comments. Of course there is still Josh Mandel...

Don't forget though, anything can happen in the next 11 months. About 6 months before the 2010 election, Strickland had a 55% approval, but by election time it was down in the 30s. Part of the reason was a very high, but decreasing unemployment rate throughout that year. Kasich himself can often be related  to this situation because our unemployment is 7.5% (only 2% less than the unemployment rate at Strickland's loss) and some polls are saying he's doing well with a 52% approval while others are saying he's really low in the water at 37%.

Now that doesn't mean it will be an easy task to defeat Kasich. FitzGerald not only needs to raise money to get his name known everywhere, but will have to raise money on statewide attack ads like this one:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wR_XOjT35Dg

^^If he got that on our TVs, this would be a race. Now in terms of who's likely to fall to who's not:

1) Treasurer Josh Mandel - Tossup
2 & 3) Governor John Kasich/Lt. Governor Mary Taylor - Tossup (I'm taking the PPP poll into account)
4) Secretary of State Jon A. Husted - Lean R
5) State Auditor Dave Yost - Likely R
6) Attorney General Mike DeWine  - Safe R (If he runs)

Treasurer - Lean D
Auditor - Tossup
Governor/LG - Likely R
Attorney General - Safe R
Secretary of State - Safe R makes the race sound more competative than it really is

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I'd say it's:

Treasurer - Lean D
Governor/Lt. Gov. - Lean R
Auditor - Likely R
Secretary of State - Likely R
Attorney General - Safe R

Incidentally, I think the Treasurer race hinges on how close the Gubernatorial race is. If FitzGerald wins or Kasich wins by fewer than 4 points, I think Mandel loses to Pillich, but I think if Kasich wins by more than 4 Mandel will hang on.

Husted and Yost are safe unless there's a Democratic wave or a scandal, while I think DeWine would survive a wave and only loses if he's caught in a scandal.

I'd argue that Carney is a pretty strong candidate while Yost is a rather weak incumbent. 

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I'd say it's:

Treasurer - Lean D
Governor/Lt. Gov. - Lean R
Auditor - Likely R
Secretary of State - Likely R
Attorney General - Safe R

Incidentally, I think the Treasurer race hinges on how close the Gubernatorial race is. If FitzGerald wins or Kasich wins by fewer than 4 points, I think Mandel loses to Pillich, but I think if Kasich wins by more than 4 Mandel will hang on.

Husted and Yost are safe unless there's a Democratic wave or a scandal, while I think DeWine would survive a wave and only loses if he's caught in a scandal.

I'd argue that Carney is a pretty strong candidate while Yost is a rather weak incumbent. 

That seat is pretty inelastic though. Even in 2006 during the Democratic wave of Ohio executive state offices, State Auditor was the only race we didn't win. I wouldn't imagine many Ohioans care much about this seat either given it's a down ballot race and a position that really doesn't do much just like Lt. Governor.

And I'll definitely agree on AG. Pepper stands practically zero chance of defeating DeWine and it's simply because not only is Pepper a weak candidate, but DeWine is well-known, popular, and distances himself away from the Kasich Administration.

But Secretary of State while it favors Husted, is not a safe seat. The last polling done on this seat had Husted only up one point, so highly depending on how Kasich Administration does in the next year in regards to the economy and with these voting reforms, a lot could be blamed on Husted and Turner can win if Ohio's shift in the race at least tilts Democratic in the next year.

I'll also agree on Mandel's race perhaps favoring Pillich considering she's four and people still hate Mandel from last year, but if the Democrat is favored in the Treasurer race, I would call the Governor race favoring nobody because Kasich is close to, but not as toxic as Mandel.

I don't think anyone could possibly be close to how toxic Mandel is right now   Kasich isn't hated, truth be told   I'd argue we ran a poor candidate for Auditor in 2006 and regarding Secretary of State, my rating stems from how poor a fit Nina Turner is for a statewide race in Ohio rather from Husted being so strong (plus that poll showed Fitzgerald tied with Kasich, IIRC, so take it with a big grain of salt). 

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Ted Stevenot of the Ohio Tea Party Files Paperwork to Run Against Kasich in the GOP Primary

This is great news! He stands little chance of beating Kasich, but given that Kasich expanded Medicaid which is very unpopular among conservatives, it will force Kasich to put a lot of money into the primary.

I doubt it, I've never even heard of this guy and he seems like a some dude candidate.  Unfortunately, Kasich can (and probably will) just ignore this.  Our best shots are still the Treasurer's office, the Auditor's office, depriving the Republicans of their super-majority in the state house (and setting ourselves up to make a play for a majority in the OH House in 2016 if that turns out to be a Democratic year), and maybe OH-6. 

I should add that with the right candidates, I think that David Joyce (good fit for his district, but it is very much a swing-seat), Bob Gibbs (wrong type of Republican for the district), and Jim Renacci (not exactly known for his competence or constituent service, involved in shady fundraising, and under-performed against Sutton who was a bad fit for the district) could all be vulnerable.  Alas, that seems like it'll have to wait until at least 2016.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I don't think much of Strickland's poor performance in the north, in particular the Greater Cleveland area, was due to him being from Southeastern Ohio. I think a lot it had to do with the Cuyahoga County corruption scandal surfacing a couple months before the election and making the Democrats somewhat toxic locally, even if Ted Strickland had nothing to do with it.

Also, the GOTV effort in the Cleveland African-American community (and to a lesser degree the entire state's African-American community) was one of the worst I've seen.  From what I've heard, the consensus is that this was a major part of why Strickland and Cordray lost.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

-_____-

Portune will regret this. Not only will he not get by FitzGerald, but Kasich's already large financial advantage will put him even closer to re-election. He's going after FitzGerald for a mistake that Kearney himself made. Sorry, but if Portune would rather have another term of John Kasich rather than get FitzGerald in there, then he's not a real Democrat.

My impression is that Portune is probably running because he thinks FitzGerald is toast and he wants to give the Democrats another option than letting Kasich coast to re-election. That's really the only reason people start a campaign this late, well either that or because they're mad at the other candidate about some issue, but that doesn't seem to have happened here.

Kasich v. FitzGerald may actually be a lot closer than Kasich v. Portune. Even for me, if Portune does win the primary, I will just end up voting for the Green candidate, Dennis Spisak, and I could see a lot of other liberals, union members, and environmentalists would want to do the same given Portune's moderate and unappealing nature. FitzGerald on the other hand already got the state party's endorsement as well as other huge ones from Senator Sherrod Brown, former Governor Ted Strickland, Reps Marcy Kaptur and Marcia Fudge, and tons of unions. FitzGerald also has the money advantage against Portune and he's been to all 88 counties. Portune hasn't and has a lot of groundwork to make up in just 4 months.

Besides, Portune suffers from the same problem FitzGerald does, name recognition and money. The fact that Portune is from Hamilton County would make it competitive there against Kasich, but he would just end up losing for the same reason Strickland lost with the North not coming in big for him. FitzGerald won't get by him easily which is unfortunate, but once PPP polls the primary, I think he will have a nice advantage over Portune.

I like Fitzgerald a lot and think he's a decent guy who'd make a good Governor.  That being said, I haven't been too impressed by him as a candidate.  If Portune beats him in the primary after joining this late in the game, it means that Fitzgerald was easily the weaker candidate.  I'd much perfer Fitzgerald, but the more important thing is running the stronger candidate.  If Portune wins the primary, despite all of Fitzgerald's advantages, so be it.  BTW, how could it be that you'd prefer four more years of Kasich to four years of Portune? 

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Affiliated Construction Trades Ohio, a construction workers' union in the Toledo area run by Democratic State Rep. Matt Szollosi made a maximum campaign contribution to John Kasich's campaign. They say the contribution is because Governor Kasich as made infrastructure a priority and that construction workers benefit.

This story is a bit of a bombshell considering it's a labor union run by a Democratic State Representative giving money to a Republican governor running for re-election. While ACT Ohio has not made an endorsement in the gubernatorial race, they have not contributed to FitzGerald's campaign.

God damn it, knew this was gonna come out sooner or later.  This is all about trying to make nice with Kasich when he's re-elected, don't let anyone tell you otherwise.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I know this is a little old, but since no one has posted it yet, Fitzgerald has called on Kasich to take a pledge to serve his entire second term.

Here's the thing though. If Kasich runs for President, this will be within the first two years of being elected to a second term and like with Walker, Christie, Haley, Brownback (if he survives) and anyone else I'm forgetting, they'll be out of the state campaigning and leaving the state with no clear leader. For FitzGerald, it's different because he doesn't have to travel to 49 different states but instead only 87 counties all of which are smaller than Cuyahoga County and he's doing this at the end of his term. Basically, Kasich has a duty to serve out his full 4 year term if re-elected, but FitzGerald shouldn't be forced to run for re-election to his current position if he doesn't want to. He's doing what any young politician would do and that's pursuing higher goals in the finishing of his successful term as CC Executive and he's definitely young enough to continue to build his way up the ladder.

If Ohio Republicans really want to attack Team FitzGerald over being an opportunist, Kasich did the same thing when he abandoned Ohio once to work with a national, biased media outlet and when the time was convenient for himself, he barged back into our state, achieved most of his support from outside Tea Party groups, and now after possibly winning a second time, might be thinking of abandoning Ohio if re-elected in 2014 after now forcing us to pay a small share of the convention cost so Kasich can get his moment at the RNC. FitzGerald practically served out a full term as Lakewood Mayor and when elected Governor, will have served through the end  of his term as Cuyahoga County Executive as opposed to Kasich who will have left in the middle of it. If FitzGerald wins the Governorship, we’ll have an elected official, likely Armond Budish, succeed him right away as CC Executive whereas if Kasich goes for and were to win the Presidency, then we would have Mary Taylor, the Lieutenant Governor, take the position without even being elected to it.

Yo Adam, your favorite candidate's out again.

Good news for Fitzy.

OH Oh I Hope he runs against Portman in 2016. Such a good candidate and we're stuck with Fitzgerald...

Portune won't run against Portman because like I said, given his condition, he can't run an effective statewide campaign and there's already a decent Democrat, Bob Hagan, in that race. There's bound to be a few bigger names to file to who think Hagan can’t beat Portman (which is probably true since Hagan is a little too socially liberal for the state). Portune really messed up big time as is with the controversy he was creating within the state Democratic Party plus he only got in the statewide race for Governor in the first place because of the Kearney debacle which he blamed FitzGerald for.

First, Kasich isn't running for President.  He clearly wants too, but I think he's smart enough to recognize he'll always be poor man's Scott Walker.  Secondly, I like Bob Hagan and all, but seriously?  There's no way he could win statewide against an extremely weak Republican, let alone Rob Portman (who while comically anonymous is still extremely disciplined, good at getting folks to buy into the "compassionate conservative" non-sense, and hardly a weak candidate).  Even in a heavily Democratic Presidential year, Hagan vs. Portman would be safe R barring a dead girl/live boy level scandal.  We have a number of stronger potential candidates.  Tim Ryan would be the best although I am not convinced he'll run.  Anyway, too early to say much about that race, but there's no way Hagan wins a Senate race (or any other statewide general election) in Ohio.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I know this is a little old, but since no one has posted it yet, Fitzgerald has called on Kasich to take a pledge to serve his entire second term.

Here's the thing though. If Kasich runs for President, this will be within the first two years of being elected to a second term and like with Walker, Christie, Haley, Brownback (if he survives) and anyone else I'm forgetting, they'll be out of the state campaigning and leaving the state with no clear leader. For FitzGerald, it's different because he doesn't have to travel to 49 different states but instead only 87 counties all of which are smaller than Cuyahoga County and he's doing this at the end of his term. Basically, Kasich has a duty to serve out his full 4 year term if re-elected, but FitzGerald shouldn't be forced to run for re-election to his current position if he doesn't want to. He's doing what any young politician would do and that's pursuing higher goals in the finishing of his successful term as CC Executive and he's definitely young enough to continue to build his way up the ladder.

If Ohio Republicans really want to attack Team FitzGerald over being an opportunist, Kasich did the same thing when he abandoned Ohio once to work with a national, biased media outlet and when the time was convenient for himself, he barged back into our state, achieved most of his support from outside Tea Party groups, and now after possibly winning a second time, might be thinking of abandoning Ohio if re-elected in 2014 after now forcing us to pay a small share of the convention cost so Kasich can get his moment at the RNC. FitzGerald practically served out a full term as Lakewood Mayor and when elected Governor, will have served through the end  of his term as Cuyahoga County Executive as opposed to Kasich who will have left in the middle of it. If FitzGerald wins the Governorship, we’ll have an elected official, likely Armond Budish, succeed him right away as CC Executive whereas if Kasich goes for and were to win the Presidency, then we would have Mary Taylor, the Lieutenant Governor, take the position without even being elected to it.

Yo Adam, your favorite candidate's out again.

Good news for Fitzy.

OH Oh I Hope he runs against Portman in 2016. Such a good candidate and we're stuck with Fitzgerald...

Portune won't run against Portman because like I said, given his condition, he can't run an effective statewide campaign and there's already a decent Democrat, Bob Hagan, in that race. There's bound to be a few bigger names to file to who think Hagan can’t beat Portman (which is probably true since Hagan is a little too socially liberal for the state). Portune really messed up big time as is with the controversy he was creating within the state Democratic Party plus he only got in the statewide race for Governor in the first place because of the Kearney debacle which he blamed FitzGerald for.

First, Kasich isn't running for President.  He clearly wants too, but I think he's smart enough to recognize he'll always be poor man's Scott Walker. Secondly, I like Bob Hagan and all, but seriously?  There's no way he could win statewide against an extremely weak Republican, let alone Rob Portman (who while comically anonymous is still extremely disciplined, good at getting folks to buy into the "compassionate conservative" non-sense, and hardly a weak candidate).  Even in a heavily Democratic Presidential year, Hagan vs. Portman would be safe R barring a dead girl/live boy level scandal.  We have a number of stronger potential candidates.  Tim Ryan would be the best although I am not convinced he'll run.  Anyway, too early to say much about that race, but there's no way Hagan wins a Senate race (or any other statewide general election) in Ohio.

That's the thing though. If Walker goes down which is seeming all the more likely day by day and if Kasich survives, he'll be considered the conservative, pragmatic alternative to all of the other GOP hopefuls. If the RNC and the backing of huge billionaires isn't enough for him, he would still be glorified by conservatives in the campaign as the "comeback guy who balanced a budget in Ohio and DC all while cutting taxes." It seems like an opportunity he wouldn't pass up because this would be his last, realistic chance at the Presidency and unless he signs the pledge, I'm leaning towards him running.

As for Hagan, no you're right. I was just telling Julio that Hagan is a "decent" candidate compared to Portune, but Ohio Democrats can do MUCH better than that. Hagan is way too polarizing to ever get elected to statewide office let alone against someone who's Vice Chair for the NRSC and an all around great politician whose since recovered from his low approvals over SSM. I don't see Ryan giving up his House seat though to run against Portman, but he would be the top candidate when our other alternatives have either declined (Strickland, Cordray) or just aren't strong enough to beat Portman (Hagan, Brunner, Neuhardt, etc.).

Brunner's not running and Neuhardt is quite possibly a weaker candidate than Hagan.  My understanding is that Cordray wants to be Governor, Strickland has already said he's not running for Senate in 2016, and Connie Pillich will have just beaten Mandel (which means the optics would be awful if she ran in 2016 given how much Mandel was criticized by the ODP for trying to office-hop when he ran for Senate).  I was thinking maybe someone like Cincinnati Mayor John Cranley or (if he gets elected State Auditor, which is quite possible) John Patrick Carney.  Canton Mayor William Healy and Dayton Mayor Nan Whaley are both possibilities (the former more than the latter, imo).  Even soon-to-be Cuyahoga County Executive Armond Budish could work although I'm not sure about that one (although I'd rather see him as Cordray's LG pick if/when he runs for Governor in 2018).  Even David Pepper (who wouldn't actually win, I suspect) would be a far stronger candidate than Hagan.

As far as Kasich goes, Walker will still run after winning re-election by a closer-than-it-should-be margin.  And even if Walker loses and Portman doesn't run, Kasich still has no shot.  He won't get the backing of the Adelson/Koch/RNC establishment types.  He comes across as two abrasive, unpolished, etc when speaking and he can't really pull off the "aww schucks, lets just roll up our sleeves and get to work" schtick he's always spouting.  If he runs, he'll another Bill Richardson or a less entertaining Rick Perry.  One of those guys who might as well be yelling during each debate "hey, look at me!  Over here!  I'm important too!" while all the serious candidates largely ignore him.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

@ Adam:

Meh, if it were between Cranley and Hagan/Pepper/Neuhart, I think the ODP would be falling all over themselves to get him to run despite his less than ideal aspects.  He's not a Republican plant or something.  Cordray really wants to be Governor, I have my sources regarding this.  He'll almost certainly run in 2018.  As for Carney, you and I disagree completely about his chances so we'll have to see.  I think he could very well beat Yost and definitely won't lose by more than 3-5%.  We'll have to see who is right  Pillich will run for re-election as Treasurer, I think.  Btw, one guy to keep an eye on is David Leland.  I predict he'll be our new House Minority Leader after 2014 and he's an insanely strong fundraiser.  Btw, what do you think about William Healy?  I think he's more likely than Whaley.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

@ Adam:

Meh, if it were between Cranley and Hagan/Pepper/Neuhart, I think the ODP would be falling all over themselves to get him to run despite his less than ideal aspects.  He's not a Republican plant or something.  Cordray really wants to be Governor, I have my sources regarding this.  He'll almost certainly run in 2018.  As for Carney, you and I disagree completely about his chances so we'll have to see.  I think he could very well beat Yost and definitely won't lose by more than 3-5%.  We'll have to see who is right  Pillich will run for re-election as Treasurer, I think.  Btw, one guy to keep an eye on is David Leland.  I predict he'll be our new House Minority Leader after 2014 and he's an insanely strong fundraiser.  Btw, what do you think about William Healy?  I think he's more likely than Whaley.

Still, Cranley failed to gain any support from unions or women's rights groups in his campaign against Qualls and he only won in the first place from incredibly low turnout in the race. He would need powerful endorsements and high turnout if he would have any slight chance against Portman and his recent expressed support for Kasich won't really help him among Democrats, either. The ODP would be very quick to endorse Hagan if it was just the 2 of them in the race and I just threw Neuhardt's name out there as a potential, but in actuality, I bet when Mike Turner retires, she'll make a well-deserved attempt to win OH-10 again.

As for Cordray, idk barring Hillary reappointing him as CFPB Chairman when it gets to be that time, then I could see a run likely for Governor. I would have no objections to him at all and we'd win the Governors seat just in time for the redistricting! As for Healy, he's undoubtedly done a great job as Mayor in reducing crime and unemployment rates all while balancing the budget. He's definitely one of our greater Democratic Mayors. However, I would personally much rather see him team up with Boccieri in 2016 to take on Renacci and Gibbs rather than run statewide.

Leland I think stands a very good chance at becoming the next Minority Leader when he in his own right is a former party chair and a great fundraiser, but I'm actually putting my money on Kathleen Clyde if it ends up being someone outside of the current, top party leadership. I would also watch Patten if he can pull off a win this time over Dovilla. Rosenberger has the Speakership rolled up him for himself on the Republican side, for sure. Butler doesn't stand a chance in the world.

And yeah, I love how we have completely opposite predictions on what will happen in the Secy. of State and Auditor races lol. We'll see what happens in those races.

The mayoral race was different.  That was between two Democrats and yes, Cranley wasn't the preference of the more liberal interest groups in that race.  However, there's no way on earth the unions would back Portman over Cranley and since it is a presidential year, I doubt they'd sit out any high-profile statewide race in Ohio.  I doubt Patten will be the new Minority Leader even if he wins, he's in a pretty vulnerable seat and is a bit too much of a good ole boy for certain interest groups (although that makes him perfect for the district he's running in).  I could easily see Clyde running, but I just don't see how she'd beat Leland.  As for Healy, I think he'd be better off running statewide than risking a fight with Gibbs where he'd be an underdog with a chance of winning if the climate proves favorable.  I do hope Boccieri runs for Congress although I've heard rumors that he's done with politics for family reasons.  I also really hope State Senator Lou Gentile runs against Bill Johnson (very possible) and that State Representative John Rogers runs against David Joyce (possible, but less likely).  Regarding Neuhardt, I'm pretty sure she'd get clobbered even in an open seat race if she ran for Congress.  Nan Whaley would be better for that seat or maybe a Montgomery County Commissioner if we have any strong ones floating around.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

@ Adam:

Meh, if it were between Cranley and Hagan/Pepper/Neuhart, I think the ODP would be falling all over themselves to get him to run despite his less than ideal aspects.  He's not a Republican plant or something.  Cordray really wants to be Governor, I have my sources regarding this.  He'll almost certainly run in 2018.  As for Carney, you and I disagree completely about his chances so we'll have to see.  I think he could very well beat Yost and definitely won't lose by more than 3-5%.  We'll have to see who is right  Pillich will run for re-election as Treasurer, I think.  Btw, one guy to keep an eye on is David Leland.  I predict he'll be our new House Minority Leader after 2014 and he's an insanely strong fundraiser.  Btw, what do you think about William Healy?  I think he's more likely than Whaley.

Still, Cranley failed to gain any support from unions or women's rights groups in his campaign against Qualls and he only won in the first place from incredibly low turnout in the race. He would need powerful endorsements and high turnout if he would have any slight chance against Portman and his recent expressed support for Kasich won't really help him among Democrats, either. The ODP would be very quick to endorse Hagan if it was just the 2 of them in the race and I just threw Neuhardt's name out there as a potential, but in actuality, I bet when Mike Turner retires, she'll make a well-deserved attempt to win OH-10 again.

As for Cordray, idk barring Hillary reappointing him as CFPB Chairman when it gets to be that time, then I could see a run likely for Governor. I would have no objections to him at all and we'd win the Governors seat just in time for the redistricting! As for Healy, he's undoubtedly done a great job as Mayor in reducing crime and unemployment rates all while balancing the budget. He's definitely one of our greater Democratic Mayors. However, I would personally much rather see him team up with Boccieri in 2016 to take on Renacci and Gibbs rather than run statewide.

Leland I think stands a very good chance at becoming the next Minority Leader when he in his own right is a former party chair and a great fundraiser, but I'm actually putting my money on Kathleen Clyde if it ends up being someone outside of the current, top party leadership. I would also watch Patten if he can pull off a win this time over Dovilla. Rosenberger has the Speakership rolled up him for himself on the Republican side, for sure. Butler doesn't stand a chance in the world.

And yeah, I love how we have completely opposite predictions on what will happen in the Secy. of State and Auditor races lol. We'll see what happens in those races.

The mayoral race was different.  That was between two Democrats and yes, Cranley wasn't the preference of the more liberal interest groups in that race.  However, there's no way on earth the unions would back Portman over Cranley and since it is a presidential year, I doubt they'd sit out any high-profile statewide race in Ohio.  I doubt Patten will be the new Minority Leader even if he wins, he's in a pretty vulnerable seat and is a bit too much of a good ole boy for certain interest groups (although that makes him perfect for the district he's running in).  I could easily see Clyde running, but I just don't see how she'd beat Leland.  As for Healy, I think he'd be better off running statewide than risking a fight with Gibbs where he'd be an underdog with a chance of winning if the climate proves favorable.  I do hope Boccieri runs for Congress although I've heard rumors that he's done with politics for family reasons.  I also really hope State Senator Lou Gentile runs against Bill Johnson (very possible) and that State Representative John Rogers runs against David Joyce (possible, but less likely).  Regarding Neuhardt, I'm pretty sure she'd get clobbered even in an open seat race if she ran for Congress.  Nan Whaley would be better for that seat or maybe a Montgomery County Commissioner if we have any strong ones floating around.

Yeah it was and I guess Republicans just didn't get anybody b/c one, it's Cincinnati and the environment there for the GOP is getting worse, not better. I'm still referring to the Democratic primary though when it comes to who the ODP, AFL-CIO, Planned Parenthood etc. would endorse. Hagan's already in the race and if Cranley jumped in and somehow pulled an upset over the establishment, I would be shocked out of my living mind, so luckily we don't have to worry about Cranley v. Portman.

The Minority Leader race I'm still not focusing too much on yet, but there are a lot of possibilities out there. Patten isn't even guaranteed to win the seat so that may have been a bad guess, but Leland and Clyde are up there and you could also argue for Celebrezze, Reece, Driehaus, the family successors to Hagan, Sykes and Boyd respectively, or the possibility for Ramos, Phillips or Ashford.

As for Boccieri, I've heard other rumors he dropped out to begin with b/c of military obligations. That and unfortunately Republicans made it so Boccieri's residence was in Ryan's district, so he would have to carpetbag in a year and a district that wouldn't even be favorable to him. I definitely see him coming back in 2016 though considering national Dems really want to see him running for one of those seats and we do know Boccieri is interested.

I would love to see Gentile have a go at it and I'm sure Strickland would be willing to campaign with him, but he might be skeptical of a run considering the district only dives into deeper (Atlas) blue territory and unlike his district, OH-6 misses Athens. We'll see what happens there though, but it would be really awesome if Gentile ran in 2016 so we at least have a Democratic incumbent going into the SD-30 race in 2018. As for Joyce, who's to say he won't lose this year.   Wager is a lot stronger than Blanchard ever was in terms of fundraising and name ID plus he came incredibly close to successfully pulling a McCaskill. The race obviously leans R, but I wouldn't call Joyce a sure bet for re-election. If Joyce does survive 2014, then yeah, there's a good handful of Dem state legislators in the district who could challenge him.

And yep, Whaley would definitely be stronger than Neuhardt, but Neuhardt is stronger than the Democrat they found this year for the seat. When Turner retires, Neuhardt would be able to do a lot better in her home Montgomery County than she performed in 2012, to, but given she's 62 and Whaley's only in her 30s, the latter might work better b/c Turner might be in Congress for awhile yet.

Thing is that the ODP establishment would back Cranley over Hagan in a second.  Hagan's great and all, but he's a self-described member of the "crazy Caucus."  As for Minority Leader, I am so bullish about Leland's chances because of how much money he's already raised.  It won't be a family successor though.  Gentile is definitely interested, everyone got screwed over when Garison announced she was running.  SD-30 isn't the right part of Joyce's district.  We need someone who is strong in Lake County.  Wager won't win, the ODP has already given up on the race.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Driehaus should run for House Minority Leader; it would be great to have pro-life Female Democratic Leadership. Garrison was Majority Leader when Democrats last controlled the House.

I don't see why Lou Gentile would be a stronger candidate than Jennifer Garrison; he's more liberal and represents bluer territory. Garrison has way more political experience than him and held a very red district during her term in the House. She has a track record of being able to gain conservative votes (see her run against Nancy Johnson a decade ago).
Despite what the loons on twitter and dailykos like to believe, consolidating progressive support isn't going to help you win a district like OH-06.

No chance of Driehaus, luckily.  As for OH-6, Garrison is a boring right-wing flip-flopper who no one likes.  Gentile is popular, a much better campaigner and fundraiser than Garrison, would actually get help from state and national Dems, and represents a pretty big chunk of the district.  Besides, Gentile isn't part of the "crazy caucus" or anything.  He is just not a de facto Republican on all social issues.  He fits the district quite well.  Remember that Strickland is like a folk-hero in the 2002-2010 OH-6 and he was quite liberal on many issues.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

It's also been reported that State Dems are taking challenges in SD-09 and SD-11 very seriously. In SD-09 the most popular Cincinatti Republican, Councilman Charlie Winburn, is running and plans to raise a huge amount of funds; Cecil Thomas is unfortunately raising nothing. The deep blue lean of the district should be enough to thankfully save Thomas, who has been endorsed by Pro Life and Christian organisations.

In SD-11, Democratic Toledo councilman, former Toledo Mayor and former State Rep. Jack Ford is running as an independent against Edna Brown, and Dems fear that he may be able to split the vote far enough to allow the Republican candidate to win the district.

What do you guys make of this?

I think Winburn could definitely win if he runs a good campaign, especially given that the Democratic base is extremely unenthusiastic about Thomas.  Edna Brown represents too inelastically Democratic a seat for a Republican to win.  My guess is they may have to spend a little money just to be safe, although the possibility of Ford narrowly winning can't be ruled out either.  If the CoC-style Republicans were smart, they'd have pressured the Republican to drop out and then tried to get policy concessions on some non-union economic issues or lower-profile social issues from Ford or Brown in exchange for the de facto (but obviously unofficial) support of the Lucas County Republican Party.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

http://www.dispatch.com/content/stories/local/2014/08/01/fitzgerald-cancels-campaign-events-calls-press-conference.html

This doesn't sound good...

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

http://www.dispatch.com/content/stories/local/2014/08/01/fitzgerald-cancels-campaign-events-calls-press-conference.html

This doesn't sound good...

Wow. Lots of challengers imploding this week.

Refresh my memory, who imploded besides FitzGerald (if this is what it looks like).  Was Walsh this week?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

http://www.dispatch.com/content/stories/local/2014/08/01/fitzgerald-cancels-campaign-events-calls-press-conference.html

This doesn't sound good...

Wow. Lots of challengers imploding this week.

Refresh my memory, who imploded besides FitzGerald (if this is what it looks like).  Was Walsh this week?

Foley had a bad gaffe.

What'd he say?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Since some of you other guys are unbelievably defending Kasich's personal attack on Ed's family, I urge the rest of you who sincerely support Ed on here to sign Ed's petition to tell Governor Kasich that dirty politics and his corrupt administration don't belong in Ohio.

http://www.edfitzgeraldforohio.com/landing/gutter-politics/

FTR, I might seem like a "FitzGerald hack", but this is my first real and more local campaign I'm in and not only do I want to see us win back the Governor's Mansion as a party, but he lives right here in Lakewood with us. He's gotten to know and have great friendships with a lot of the families in and around the city, they go to our same parish (my parents just saw Shannon and her 16 year old daughter at church on Saturday), and I've interned for and met Ed before and he's a great, down-to-Earth guy who is very disciplined. I'll defend him to the Earth and back if I have to.

As IceSpear said, he's never been drunk and never smoked pot, and he's not a sleazy, average American who would cheat on his wife - he just wouldn't do that and I personally believe that. I don't know him intimately by any means, but I know him better than those of you making assumptions of him cheating based solely on the timing of the drive back to the hotel.

"...and he's not a sleazy average American who would cheat on his wife..." - Adam

What the hell?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Hopefully FitzGerald does the honorable thing and drops out. He's clearly a disaster.

Excuse me  Adam will have you know that sleazy 'ole average Americans like us simply can't comprehend the divine purpose that guides Ed FitzGerald.  We are all but mere ants compared to this giant among men.  Go back to Sodom and Gomorrah with all the other philandering ordinaries

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

FitzGerald is still refusing to drop out   He has to realize how badly he's screwing over everyone on the ballot this cycle.  If only we had nominated Todd Portune, he couldn't have been worse than this.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Can the Democrats replace him if he did drop out? Or is it too late for that?

I forget, but even if his name stays on the ballot and he drops out and becomes a hermit, it can't be worse than this mess.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Can the Democrats replace him if he did drop out? Or is it too late for that?

The deadline to replace him is next Monday. So that adds to the urgency of the situation.

Hopefully the ODP can make him see reason before then!

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Sure, someone could run as a write-in still, but that would be nonsensical.

That's the only option left for those of you who desperately want another candidate. I'm not saying anyone would run as a write-in, just stating that all other possibilities besides allowing FitzGerald to be the nominee are no longer possible since most deadlines except write-in passed.

By "those of you," you mean the entire ODP

FitzGerald staying in just screws over all the good Democrats running who are actually fit to hold elected office.