Labour Leadership/Deputy Leadership Election thread

[Rural Radical]

The slightest move in any direction always sees seats falling. Personally I suspect we'll see strong swings, maybe very strong ones, to the Tories in some sorts of constituency, and swings back to Labour in other sorts. And I'm increasingly sure that we'll see the far-right (and by that I don't mean just the BNP) poll strongly in areas that feel abandoned by the new direction (whatever it is) that the Tories are moving in.

IMO I can see the Labour vote picking up in Rural (working Class) Areas.

BNP picking up in Commuterland?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Oxford East

Despite the slashing of the majority last time, Labour seem to have (if local election and local by-election results (and those defections) are anything to go by) got it's act together there a bit.

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Not so sure about that one; demographic changes in Watford are very bad for us, and the LibDem machine doesn't look like it'll disappear anytime soon.
Still... at least we actually won a ward in Watford this year... only one, but that's better than the years running up to 2005...

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We get utterly screwed by insane boundary changes there. The rise of the far right in Essex makes things complicated though.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

IMO I can see the Labour vote picking up in Rural (working Class) Areas.

Provided the Party actually puts some effort into it, definately. Hunstanton result a few weeks ago was very encouraging.

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That depends what you mean by Commuterland; in the classic Commuterland area (NW of central London), no, absolutely not (the area is far too ethnically mixed and far too Jewish for that to happen), but in the commuter belt they (and other far-right parties) seem to be. One type of ward they've been doing in well in, are some of the ex-LCC ex-council estates (which have been moving upmarket a lot recently), but if the recent Bridge by-election in Redbridge is anything to go by (and I think it probably is...), then they seem to be picking up steam in privately-built suburbs as well.
This time next year, the council with the second most BNP councillers will almost certainly be Epping Forest.

[Rural Radical]

Oxford East

Despite the slashing of the majority last time, Labour seem to have (if local election and local by-election results (and those defections) are anything to go by) got it's act together there a bit.

I think if the Libs were going to win this it would have been last year.

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Not so sure about that one; demographic changes in Watford are very bad for us, and the LibDem machine doesn't look like it'll disappear anytime soon.
Still... at least we actually won a ward in Watford this year... only one, but that's better than the years running up to 2005...
As above.

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We get utterly screwed by insane boundary changes there. The rise of the far right in Essex makes things complicated though.

I think the BNP will help us hold it. You know my views on South Essex. I can see us doing well in Essex.

[Rural Radical]

IMO I can see the Labour vote picking up in Rural (working Class) Areas.

Provided the Party actually puts some effort into it, definately. Hunstanton result a few weeks ago was very encouraging.

Fingers crossed. I believe the Latte- Liberals are gone for good IMO.

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That depends what you mean by Commuterland; in the classic Commuterland area (NW of central London), no, absolutely not (the area is far too ethnically mixed and far too Jewish for that to happen), but in the commuter belt they (and other far-right parties) seem to be. One type of ward they've been doing in well in, are some of the ex-LCC ex-council estates (which have been moving upmarket a lot recently), but if the recent Bridge by-election in Redbridge is anything to go by (and I think it probably is...), then they seem to be picking up steam in privately-built suburbs as well.
This time next year, the council with the second most BNP councillers will almost certainly be Epping Forest.

You are right about NW London (I was in that area last week, I cant believe how leafy Harrow is).

I think the Tory vote will start to collapse badly in very working class areas, with the BNP/NF gaining from this. See what happened in Woodside (South Telford).

[minionofmidas]

Why do our Tory friends assume that they will gain seats next time?

IMO Labour could gain seats against the trend when the anti war vote comes back. Seats like Shrewsbury & Atcham (10% swing to Lib Dem), also I think Withington, Chesterfield, Rochdale and Yardley could come back as well.

While I have no doubt that Labour will regain seats they lost to the Lib Dems and may see a swing towards them in seats like Crawley for example, I believe any Labour gains will be offset by sustained losses to the Conservatives. There may be the odd upset, similar to the Tories gaining Aberdeen South in 1992 for example, but even the slightest move to the Tories would see Labour seats fall.

Good Point.

Regarding the old "Severn to The Wash" Line (outside of London).

I cant see us (Lab) losing the following seats in the foreeable future :

 Both Plymouth Seats
Exeter
Bristol South & East
Kingswood
Both Southampton Seats
Oxford East
Brighton Pavillion
Dover
Reading West
Slough
Stevenage
Watford
Thurrock
Basildon
Swindon North
Ipswich
Both Norwich Seats
Both Luton Seats

I'd add Kemptown (but see Al on South Essex. I have no idea how the massive boundary changes there will affect the political balance of individual seats, hence I wouldn't, right now, predict anything there.)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Don't think there are to be any major changes to Kemptown (and obviously the rise of the far right isn't exactly a factor there ).

What's irritating about the Basildon changes is that it would have been possible to have drawn a proper Basildon constituency (the current seat doesn't include Pitsea) this time round... instead, the town is, and entirely artificially, split even worse than it is already (with the most working class wards going into the same seat as Billericay. Sick joke there...).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Well no, he doesn't rebel a great deal. He's a Marxist though.

How many Marxists do you  reckon are in the PLP? 20? Probably most of the campaign group, McDonnell included..

Not sure. But there's obviously a difference between those who are open about it, and those who aren't

Certainly the right of the Party is full of ex-Marxists though

[Serenity Now]

Why do our Tory friends assume that they will gain seats next time?

IMO Labour could gain seats against the trend when the anti war vote comes back. Seats like Shrewsbury & Atcham (10% swing to Lib Dem), also I think Withington, Chesterfield, Rochdale and Yardley could come back as well.

While I have no doubt that Labour will regain seats they lost to the Lib Dems and may see a swing towards them in seats like Crawley for example, I believe any Labour gains will be offset by sustained losses to the Conservatives. There may be the odd upset, similar to the Tories gaining Aberdeen South in 1992 for example, but even the slightest move to the Tories would see Labour seats fall.

Good Point.

Regarding the old "Severn to The Wash" Line (outside of London).

I cant see us (Lab) losing the following seats in the foreeable future :

 Both Plymouth Seats
Exeter
Bristol South & East
Kingswood
Both Southampton Seats
Oxford East
Brighton Pavillion
Dover
Reading West
Slough
Stevenage
Watford
Thurrock
Basildon
Swindon North
Ipswich
Both Norwich Seats
Both Luton Seats

I'd add Kemptown

I'd like to agree, so I will, the parts of it that actually are in Brighton shouldn't get any torier (although their best ward in the UA are there) but it has places like Saltdean (LD-Tory leaning) and Peacehaven (Tory) change the balance... I really wish they weren't in it, there is little to no Lab or green vote there, if it was the 1992 boundaries it would be as "safe" or safer than Pavilion.

I'll post by Brighton & Hove ward map somewhere when I'm using a faster connection

[afleitch]

Re: Essex, thank god they sorted out Braintree by removing Witham (even if it did include all but the north of the council) and they pulled Chelmsfords boundaries in tighter. Essex is always going to be a bit difficult with each review, and if the Thames Gateway gets underway South Essex (And North Kent the Medway area) is going to look very interesting in 20 years time.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Results of the 2003 elections in Brighton:



It's a bit crude, but gives a general idea of things.

Kemptown also includes four wards from Lewes DC; East Saltdean is a Lib/Con marginal, while all three Peacehaven wards are Tory (although Peacehaven East seems to have a large-ish Labour minority vote).

[Serenity Now]

Here's the one I made a while ago, showing what the parties got on average in each ward:



Does anybody reckon the Greens will be as much a factor this time round? Has everyone who would vote for them already done so?

I'm worried Brighton Pavilion could be quite the three-way marginal..

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Nice work; is that total votes or average share?

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BBC is reporting that Walter Wolfgang has been elected to the N.E.C. Not heard who else has been though.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

From the Labour website, the following have been elected from the CLP's...

Ann Black
Ellie Reeves
Christine Shawcroft
Peter Wheeler
Peter Willsman
Walter Wolfgang

And the following from councillers:

Sir Jeremy Beecham
Sally Powell

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So 4 out of the 6 elected were from the Grassroots Alliance (including Wolfgang) and Baldock lost her seat. Looks like a win for the Left to me.

[Rural Radical]

From the Labour website, the following have been elected from the CLP's...

Ann Black
Ellie Reeves
Christine Shawcroft
Peter Wheeler
Peter Willsman
Walter Wolfgang

And the following from councillers:

Sir Jeremy Beecham
Sally Powell

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I cant remember who I voted for now.

So 4 out of the 6 elected were from the Grassroots Alliance (including Wolfgang) and Baldock lost her seat. Looks like a win for the Left to me.

[Serenity Now]

Nice work; is that total votes or average share?

Total votes, I decided that would work as the parties shown ran a full slate of candidates in every ward, although there was a large amount of vote splitting.

The ward I currently am living in is the dark one near the centre, probably the greenest place in the UK, in which Keith Taylor is a councillor.



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Also, I forgot to post my NEC ballot before going on holiday, but one of my housemates might've done it.

I can't exactly remember who I voted for but it was funnily enough quite similar to the result, except I think I included Helen Jackson because I new little about the others.

[minionofmidas]

Nice work; is that total votes or average share?

Total votes, I decided that would work as the parties shown ran a full slate of candidates in every ward, although there was a large amount of vote splitting.

Uh, in that case, wouldn't total votes and average share be the same thing anyhow?

Now, what changes things is when you use the highest no. of votes received by any of the party's candidates...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

In an interview with the Times, Blair has apparently refused to name an exit date, has said that he won't quit at Conference (drat), and has apparently called on people to "let me get on with my job".

A "Thatchering" is looking increasingly likely...

[afleitch]

In an interview with the Times, Blair has apparently refused to name an exit date, has said that he won't quit at Conference (drat), and has apparently called on people to "let me get on with my job".

A "Thatchering" is looking increasingly likely...

May 2007 is most likely if this is the case, even if Labour perform better than expected in Wales, Scotland and the locals (though I'm not quite sure what the expected level will be) The Scottish Labour Party will not be pleased' it was reported today that they wish to undertake a 'Blairless' campaign (which leaves them a bit rudderless as McConnell is no peach at the moment either)and insiders have said that if Blair announced a departure date it would make for a less awkward campaign.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

May 2007 would seem the most likely time for it to happen, but to be honest it could happen at any time between Conference and then... unless he names a date at *some point* he's unlikely to last long beyond May.

[afleitch]

Anyone know on what day in the next year or so he would have outlasted Thatcher?

[Silent Hunter]

I think that Blair will go when everyone least expects.

If Straw runs for deputy leader, I'll vote for him.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

There's a rumour that Blair will announce his intention to retire before the Scottish/Welsh/[English] District elections, but will actually retire a little later than that.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

There are rumours that a letter calling for Blair to stand down (and signed by M.P's elected in 2005) is doing the rounds.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It seems as though 17 "normally loyal" M.P's have signed a letter calling on him to quit; one was Chris Bryant and another was Sion Simon.
And Albert Owen (M.P for Anglesey/Ynys Mon) has confirmed that he's written a private letter asking for the same thing.

Meanwhile 49 M.P's have signed another letter, supporting an orderly transition and all that.