pragmatic liberal
Jr. Member
Posts: 520
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« on: August 07, 2010, 06:05:38 PM » |
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Many people have pointed out that even as the Democrats House prospects seem to be getting worse, the picture in the Senate has improved for them (with net losses likely limited to 4-5). It seems like the same thing is happening the Statehouses. Although at one point, Republicans were projected to pick up something like 10 or more net seats, it now looks like their gains could be more limited.
Despite earlier predictions that Republicans would pick up Colorado, Ohio, Massachusetts and Maryland, all four - at least at the moment - seem to be narrowly favoring retention. (In CO, it's a near-certain hold.) Despite Meg Whitman's millions, Jerry Brown seems to have a consistent narrow lead in California, which would be a pickup, and they will probably pick up Minnesota, Connecticut and Hawaii as well.
Given the Florida GOP mess, Alex Sink looks like she has a real shot of picking that seat up. RI is neck-and-neck although most Dems would be fine with Lincoln Chafee winning it as an independent. And while Texas and Georgia lean Republican, Democratic pickups there are possible.
As I see it, Republicans will pick up WY, OK, KS, IA, WI, MI, TN, PA, and, yes, IL. (I think Dems will hold OR and ME.) If I had to guess, I think Dems will pick up CA, HI, MN, CT, and FL which would work out to a net +3 Republican gain when you include a Lincoln Chafee 3rd party win in RI. That would go down to a +2 Republican gain if Barnes can win in GA.
So do people agree that Dems' statehouse picture is improving?
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