2016 Republican Nomination Poll - June 2015

[Bull Moose Base]

Going with Kasich. Walker and Rubio will come across as lightwieghts during the debates. Jeb is already crashing.

In 2011-2, Romney seemed easily the smartest Republican running and even though he won, he struggled to get more support than lightweights. The party that nominated W gave Perry a big lead until Romney attacked him from the right on immigration. Then it have Cain a big lead until the 5th or 6th woman came forward. Then Gingrich's scandals were used against him. I think Rubio and Walker being lightweight is less likely to sink them than scandals or alienating conservatives.

[Bull Moose Base]

As Ted Cruz pointed out today, what early state does Jeb win? New Hampshire? George W Bush couldn't get within 10 points in New Hampshire. And that was before people had experienced President George W Bush. South Carolina by running on immigration reform? Not that he couldn't be the first nominee who didn't win Iowa or New Hampshire let alone South Carolina too but I wouldn't be confident in that.

I agree Walker is fragile but not because of gaffes (Cain struggling to remember what was going on in Libya didn't cost him in polls. That would be a mistress.) or not being moderate enough (Huckabee and Santorum were too moderate on economic issues, reviled by the establishment and had no money. Not problems Walker has.) Walker's problem is corruption. Especially as if, like usual, the cover-up ends up worse than the crime. Same goes for Rubio. But also immigration reform.