EP elections 2014

[Zinneke]

Has the N/VA said anything about whether they will sit in the Green/EFA group again? There seem to have been quite a lot of criticism towards them because they don't vote with the group that often, especially from some of the other Belgian members of the group. According to VoteWatch Europe, N/VA votes with the group in 70 % of the cases which is far below the average of 95 %; even the Scottish National Party, which is the second-most likely rebels, votes with the group 85 % of the times. I'm not sure how softly Eurosceptic they are? perhaps somewhere in between EPP and ECR which I guess are the most viable alternatives.

The N-VA want to sit with ECR but Cameron can't let them in because of Scotland (it would look like his group is endorsing Flemish independence). De Wever actually met Cameron not long ago to discuss the issue. They will probably join after the referendum in UK though. Remember though that the only reason N-VA are not still in the EPP is because of the messy divorce with CD&V (Flemish Christian Democrats, who they had a cartel with until the financial crisis) who demanded with Spanish backing that N-VA be kicked out. The Green-Freedom Alliance took them in because at the time they had one MEP and she was in line with most of their policies.

My understanding is that the N-VA's prominent members including De Wever are really Eurosceptic to an almost EFD-level but recognise the EU institutions as important to securing potential independence with Brussels included. I wouldn't be fooled by his party's official European stance though, they do not like the EU institutions in Brussels and would probably rather it went back to being a provincial capital. He is just an excellent opportunist and knows it helps the Flemish economy.

Are there likely to be any seat changes in Belgium, as opposed to vote changes? Who would lose out if the various Greens advance?

CD&V and Open Vld will probably lose a seat each to N-VA and/or Groen. Vlaams Belang will lose a seat in Antwerp to N-VA. Because ecolo did so well last European elections they will do well to hang on to what they already have. Still, because the two green parties have been in opposition on a federal level and do traditionally well in Europe, I'm going to make a bold prediction and say they combined will have the most seats from Belgium. Other than that seat changes in Belgium are very unlikely.

[Zinneke]

Your election campaign posters are...weird.

[Zinneke]

Sad times in Belgium as her largest party - the N-VA Flemish Nationalists - is being barred from the Greens EFA group. They've ruled out the far left, the eurosceptics and the far-right - I suppose either EPP or ALDE will let them in?

Why've they been thrown out?

Because they've drifted rightwards and so look increasingly odd. Apparently the two Belgian Green parties suggested they leave.

N-VA used to be a sub-group of CD&V (Flemish Christian Democrats, light nationalists) and have always had a conservative-liberal backbone to their nationalism (There used to be a left-wing nationalist party called Spirit but they're in Groen now). When they split from CD&V, the latter got very cross and managed to get N-VA kicked out of the EPP.

Thing is N-VA had only one MEP at the time anyway and she was actually to the left of the party and on good terms with the Belgian Greens and more importantly wasn't a hardcore Flemish nationalist (she's from Limburg). I talked to an ecolo MEP and he said it was a potential PR disaster (a Walloon party sitting in the same group as a Flemish nationalist party) but they didn't want her in the non-inscrits because she was europhile, limburgish and did a lot of good work.

Anyway she is no longer MEP as she was elected as mayor of Bilzen and now N-VA are set to get more seats with a way more right-wing list than the last time out (since De Wever is riding on the tide of right-wing populism). They look set to join the ECR although that could get embarrassing for Cameron with the Scotland debate. Personally, I think they should just rejoin the EPP because they are not eurosceptic (yet).

I think Ecolo and the way that other Walloon parties have kept questioning them as to why they sit with Flemish nationalists both in EP and in federal government opposition is the realpolitik nature of what just happened. This is what happens in campaigning time I guess...

[Zinneke]

Verhofstadt did well to clear up the F word. He made it clear that he isn't arguing for a bureaucratic Europe but rather a common policy Europe by any means necessary, then rightfully shifted the responsibility on the council for a lack of common policy. I think he basically got to the heart of the institutional issue within the EU better than the others. He will never get on with the council though.

I thought Ska Keller was really dissapointing. She could have had a right go at both EPP and S&D for their joint socio-economic programme of austerity and instead she banged on about Green issues. In fact, the whole socio-economic debate was a farce. Juncker is to the left of his party and supports workers rights and high wages. Schulz is to the right of his party and is German-orientated so supports austerity. This debate really needed Tsipras or Bové to argue against gloablisation and liberalism in general.

Schulz is, for me, the one who should get the job based on tongiht's performances. He has too much baggage though and I see an increasingly xenophobic Europe turning its back on ''softy'' social democracy sooner rather than later. I mean in 2009 the Social Democrats were destroyed and that was after the biggest failure of capitalism for a long while. I really fear for the traditional European Left in general.

Looks like it will be Juncker...ugh...

To not end on a negative note, I actually thought the debate, while chaotic, was really good in some parts and amusing in others. Keep in mind I believe most of the audience are students and I think that is a demographic that desperately needs to have new political fire in the belly. Aside from Juncker, the others actually did a decent job of not looking like the political Brussels-based beaurodinosaurs they are.

[Zinneke]

As a debate, it didn't matter to the election outcome. Two of the candidates will not come in first place, and the other two candidates will win seats if their member parties are in opposition and lose them if they're in government, and there's no guarantee that the European Council will propose any of the four, anyway. As the French-language Euronews commentators said afterwards, even Juncker really wanted to be President of the Council but the EPP needed a German-speaking candidate.

Juncker will probably end up as President of the Council with Schulz or Verhostadt as Comission President.

To be President of the Council ideally you have to be a diplomat, and politically you have to be a centrist. Juncker is perfect for this.

To be President of the Commision ideally you have to have a strong image of leadership and know-how (so far Delors is the only one who managed this) and politically you just need a majority in parliament and to bend your back to whatever the Council demands of you. Schulz fits this criteria.

[Zinneke]

Tsipras doesn't speak that good English anyway. He has more to gain from not going to these debates. If he presents himself as the anti-establishment candidate who refuses to go to these processions of 4 centrist parties arguing over which coloured neo-liberalist Eurofederalism they want. That's his rhetoric anyway.

[Zinneke]

The S&D v EPP battle isn't really a thing anyway. As far as I'm concerned it doesn't matter.

Agreed, they are in coalition together now, with ALDE, and they will be in coalition together for a considerable amount of time until either the EU falls or their eurofederalist project catches on with the people of Europe. Schulz banging on about back door deals is the most hypocritical thing I've heard in quite some time. That being said, perhaps the member-states will see that Schulz can get things done in the Commission and elect Juncker as President of the Council.

[Zinneke]

Two new UK polls. This is gonna be a horrible result.

ComRes/ITV
UKIP 38 (+8)
Labour 27 (-3)
Tory 18 (-4)
LibDem 8 (nc)

TNS-BMRB
UKIP 36 (+7)
Labour 27 (-3)
Tory 18 (-3)
LibDem 10 (+1)

Pretty funny.

However, I will not shake the feeling that this also means a certain deliberate overestimation of UKIP. Only to then provide them at 25% a failure. Do you have evidence for this thesis?

Actually if anything most of the people who say they will vote Labour/Tory will probably stay at home.

UKIP will win this election because the entire election is their issue and their favorite hunting ground. The other parties couldn't give a toss.

We should only be worried about UKIP's poll ratings for national elections.

[Zinneke]

Interesting story:
http://www.nltimes.nl/2014/04/30/rutte-threatened-euro-exit-2012-van-rompuy/

He thinks he is more powerful than he really is. Like a child seeking attention during an important meeting IMO.

I cannot stress how disastrous it would be for the Netherlands to be cut off from the rest of Europe. Such a large country will not put up with simply being a tax haven for multinational companies with its trade potential.

[Zinneke]

A bit of expectation management for the Lib Dems in the Guardian.

Zero seats would really be worse for them than most people are predicting.  They should at least hold on in the South East.

Not many sensible people are predicting a wipeout

People forget that there are still LibDem ''safe seats'' It is well and truly part of the establishment parties in that respect.

[Zinneke]

I was a volunteer at the polling station again, my shift ended at 1630. Polls close at 2100, I will have to go back then for the count.

Turnout was pretty low in our station, comparable/lower than in 2009, and about half of the turnout for Second Chamber elections. We opened 5 minutes late, the city had forgotten to deliver the ballots. .

Pretty miffed I didn't get my stempas in the post . When I went to drop off my application to my commune the woman seemed totally clueless to the fact that I could vote in the Netherlands as an EU citizen.

Looks like I'll only be voting for regional and federal on Saturday. A shame because the political parties on offer in the Netherlands are more interesting and varied.

Anyway, there is a programme on dutch TV that will release exit poll results from 40,000 members in order to analyse the political scene. Seems like a dick move to me. How can you possibly determine how a country has voted through 40.000 random people. Almost a ludicrous as polls.