The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread

[Mr. Morden]

Morning Consult national poll on Trump job approval, conducted Mar. 24-25:

http://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000015b-17b4-dd0d-a1df-77b719a00001
http://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000015b-17b2-d8ae-addf-97b790780000

approve 45%
disapprove 50%

Trump job approval margin by region:
Midwest: -1
Northeast: -4
South: -1
West: -12

Trump job approval margin by race:
whites: +7
blacks: -56
Hispanics: -19

Trump job approval margin by income:
under $50k: -3
$50-100k: -4
over $100k: -13

13% of Trump voters disapprove of Trump’s job performance.  15% of Clinton voters approve of Trump’s job performance.

[Mr. Morden]

Morning Consult national poll on Trump job approval, conducted Mar. 24-25:

http://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000015b-17b4-dd0d-a1df-77b719a00001
http://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000015b-17b2-d8ae-addf-97b790780000

approve 45%
disapprove 50%

Trump job approval margin by region:
Midwest: -1
Northeast: -4
South: -1
West: -12

Trump job approval margin by race:
whites: +7
blacks: -56
Hispanics: -19

Trump job approval margin by income:
under $50k: -3
$50-100k: -4
over $100k: -13

13% of Trump voters disapprove of Trump’s job performance.  15% of Clinton voters approve of Trump’s job performance.

Interesting. He's slightly underwater in the South and that's the first time I've seen that.

It's the first time I've seen that on job approval.  There were some pre-inauguration polls that did have him underwater in the South on *favorability* though.

[Mr. Morden]

My question is, at what point in a president's term do his job approval #s show a statistically meaningful correlation with what their job approval will be at the midterms, and with what it'll be when they face reelection?  That is, did the presidents who had particularly high job approval #s two months in also have high job approval #s at the mid terms, and vice versa?

[Mr. Morden]

My question is, at what point in a president's term do his job approval #s show a statistically meaningful correlation with what their job approval will be at the midterms, and with what it'll be when they face reelection?  That is, did the presidents who had particularly high job approval #s two months in also have high job approval #s at the mid terms, and vice versa?

That doesn't answer my question. 

[Mr. Morden]

My question is, at what point in a president's term do his job approval #s show a statistically meaningful correlation with what their job approval will be at the midterms, and with what it'll be when they face reelection?  That is, did the presidents who had particularly high job approval #s two months in also have high job approval #s at the mid terms, and vice versa?

That doesn't answer my question. 

Well...Trump is an anomaly...nobody has ever had low ratings this early on so all we can do is speculate that it will remain in the 30s.

But that is what I'm questioning, about it remaining in the 30s.  Yes, I realize that Trump is outside the range of previous presidents at this point in their terms.  But within the range taken by previous presidents, what is the correlation coefficient between their job approval at this early stage and their job approval at the time of the midterms (and at their reelection)?  And if the correlation is low, at what point does the correlation become high?

[Mr. Morden]

McClatchy / Marist (3/22 - 3/27)
Approve: 38%
Disapprove: 51%

Generic congressional ballot:
Democrats: 47%
Republicans: 38%

Trump job approval margin by region:
Midwest: -8
Northeast: -31
South: -7
West: -11

Trump job approval margin by race:
whites: -2
blacks: -88
Hispanics: -23

white college graduate: -22
white not college graduate: +15

Trump job approval margin by income:
under $50k: -20
over $50k: -9

[Mr. Morden]

McClatchy / Marist (3/22 - 3/27)
Approve: 38%
Disapprove: 51%

Generic congressional ballot:
Democrats: 47%
Republicans: 38%

Around D+9 is when the House has a chance of flipping, so this is good this early on.

It is, and this is good news indeed. While the generic ballot technically isn't for state races, it still represents a rather broad view of how the public feels about one party over the other. If these numbers hold in 2017, it could be pretty bad for the GOP in NJ/VA.

However, personally I feel like these numbers are still "reactionary" and not durable. Trump has been under a never-ending stream of scandal or generally bad news coverage, so it's not surprising his approvals/the GOP's numbers are down. I'm not convinced Democratic support on the generic ballot has reached a durable state, where the public is so fed up with Republicans/Trump that almost nothing that is plausible can happen to help the GOP rebound in time. I think it's possible to get there before Nov Oct-Nov 2018, but it'll take at least a year+ rather than a few months.

I think Democrats could win the House with a lower lead than 9 points. Remember that the GOP gerrymander never was made based on a so big collapse in the suburbs.

I actually looked at the tipping point House seat in 2016, and compared to the comparable situation in 2004 (which was the House election preceding the Dem. takeover of 2006).  The structural problem for the Dems in the 2010s seems to be pretty bad, and has gotten worse than it was in the 2000s.  The tipping point seat this time around was Mia Love’s seat, and she won by 12.5 points.  This compares to the national margin in the House, which was GOP by 1.1 points.  That suggests that if there was a uniform swing, you’d need to have the Dems win nationally by more than 11 points in order to take back the House.  There just aren’t that many seats that the GOP won this time by single digit margins, so you need a big swing for them to lose the House.

Of course, there won’t be a uniform swing, so maybe the Dems can count on a larger than expected share of the swing taking place in competitive districts.  I looked back at the 2004 election, and if you do the same analysis there, you would predict that the Dems would have needed a 7.7 point national victory margin in 2006 to take the House.  They ended up winning it with an 8.0 point margin, but that was with winning 15 more seats than they actually needed, so the prediction based on a uniform swing from the past election overestimated how much work they needed to do, and it might be the same for 2018.  But I still wouldn’t count on anything less than at least a high single digit popular vote margin of victory being sufficient.

[Mr. Morden]

SurveyMonkey national poll, conducted Mar. 24-30:

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B83Vpfes67zfUUw4dVVaMTc2bm8/view

Trump approve / disapprove:

adults: 42/56% for -14%
RVs: 43/57% for -14%

men: -1
women: -26
whites: +2
blacks: -60
Hispanics: -46

white college grad: -24
white non-college grad: +14
non-white college grad: -50
non-white non-college grad: -42

[Mr. Morden]

Economist/YouGov national poll, conducted April 2-4:

http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/2f8nhwlimu/econToplines.pdf

Trump job approval/disapproval:
40/48% for -8%

[Mr. Morden]

Morning Consult national poll on Trump job approval, conducted Mar. 30 - Apr. 1:

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/polls/politico-morning-consult-27416

Trump job approval/disapproval:
47/49% for -2%

[Mr. Morden]

Morning Consult national poll on Trump job approval, conducted Mar. 30 - Apr. 1:

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/polls/politico-morning-consult-27416

Trump job approval/disapproval:
47/49% for -2%

Crosstabs:

http://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000015b-3e68-d4bd-a5df-befb5bd70002

Trump job approval margin by region:
Midwest: -5
Northeast: -13
South: +7
West: -6

Trump job approval margin by race:
whites: +7
blacks: -54
Hispanics: -9

Trump job approval margin by income:
under $50k: -3
$50-100k: -2
over $100k: +2

10% of Trump voters disapprove of Trump’s job performance.  10% of Clinton voters approve of Trump’s job performance.

[Mr. Morden]

Morning Consult national poll on Trump job approval, conducted Mar. 30 - Apr. 1:

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/polls/politico-morning-consult-27416

Trump job approval/disapproval:
47/49% for -2%

His first time underwater with them. I think they were the last holdout.

Nope, he was already underwater with them in their previous poll, which had him at -5:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252808.msg5588116#msg5588116

So this latest poll is actually an improvement.

[Mr. Morden]

Morning Consult national poll, conducted April 6-9:

http://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000015b-5fbb-da80-afdf-dfff4d650002

Trump job approval/disapproval:
48/47% for +1%

Trump job approval margin by region:
Midwest: +/-0
Northeast: -7
South: +7
West: -1

Trump job approval margin by race:
whites: +11
blacks: -60
Hispanics: -9

Trump job approval margin by income:
under $50k: -7
$50-100k: +9
over $100k: +23

12% of Trump voters disapprove of Trump’s job performance.  14% of Clinton voters approve of Trump’s job performance.

[Mr. Morden]

The majority of Americans will rally behind a war until they start seeing all the caskets coming home and endless news reports for months of a lack of success in the mission. It's that alone, not even the potentially countless civilian deaths or total destruction of another country, that discourages Americans' support for war.

I agree with that part.  American casualties are the unpopular part of war.  But if the war is conducted from the air, with no large occupying army, then there isn't going to be much of anything in the way of American casualties.  And I don't think Trump subscribes to Colin Powell's "pottery barn rule", so it's not clear to me that he's ever going to try to fight a ground war, or embrace Petraeus-style counterinsurgency.  He could just fight from the air, and thus never get bogged down in a conflict that would generate more than a handful of American casualties.

[Mr. Morden]

Nothing unifies Americans behind their dear leader quite like dropping bombs on other countries.

48/47 hardly counts as unified.

Meanwhile, in The Economist/YouGov poll (previous poll was last week):

All Adults:

Approve 40%
Disapprove 50% (+2)

Registered Voters:

Approve 43%
Disapprove 52% (+2)

crosstabs:

men: -8
women: -13
income under $50k: -14
income between $50k and $100k: -6
income over $100k: -31
white: +4
black: -59
Hispanic: -44

So the “over $100k” income group here is the exact opposite result as in the Morning Consult poll.  +23 points in one poll and -31 points in the other.  Of course, that cohort is smaller than the other two income cohorts, so MoE is larger.

[Mr. Morden]

Survey Monkey:

44% Approve (+2)
53% Disapprove (-3)

Source

On the page with the crosstabs, it says 45% for adults, and 46% for registered voters:

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BxxpEMTW3kArbGp4UkFxYTlHekk/view

adults: 45/53% for -8%
RVs: 46/53% for -7%

men: +7
women: -24
whites: +9
blacks: -57
Hispanics: -38

white college grad: -17
white non-college grad: +20
non-white college grad: -47
non-white non-college grad: -37

[Mr. Morden]

PEW:

39% Approve (-4)
54% Disapprove (-1)

Source

Crosstabs:



Also of interest:

[Mr. Morden]

PPP:

Approve 43%
Disapprove 50%

Best question asked in this poll:

Which do you have a higher opinion of: United Airlines or Donald Trump?

United Airlines 42%
Donald Trump 40%
Not Sure 18%

Source

I wonder if this poll sheds some light on recent special elections. The enthusiasm gap is huge, but the actual generic ballot question is only giving Democrats a 6% lead. This sounds like a lot, but not so much after you consider that Democrats tend to underperform that poll. It's nothing like the 2006/2008 numbers.

My point being that recent special elections clearly show a lot of enthusiasm, which has helped narrow the gap, but enough of the public hasn't turned against Republicans yet to flip the possibly flip the House next year. Though, not to say that I don't think this poll can get to where we need by next October.

A 6 point generic House ballot lead for the Dems actually isn’t much different from the “disapprove” minus “approve” spread on Trump’s job approval in this very poll (which is 7 points, not far off from the HuffPo average).  So I wouldn't say that people have turned on Trump more than the GOP as a whole so much as that they haven't done so in sufficient numbers.  The GOP simply has a significant structural advantage in the House, such that the Dems winning the national popular vote by 7 points just isn't enough for them to get a majority of seats.  Never mind "underperforming" a 6 or a 7 point lead, if that's where they're polling.  They can straight up win nationally by 7 points, and it's not enough for a House majority.

[Mr. Morden]

Morning Consult national poll, conducted April 13-15:

http://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000015b-8833-da28-af5b-b93bd7840001

Trump job approval/disapproval:
48/45% for +3%

Trump job approval margin by region:
Midwest: +12
Northeast: -11
South: +9
West: -9

Trump job approval margin by race:
whites: +12
blacks: -59
Hispanics: -5

Trump job approval margin by income:
under $50k: -4
$50-100k: +7
over $100k: +18

8% of Trump voters disapprove of Trump’s job performance.  12% of Clinton voters approve of Trump’s job performance.

[Mr. Morden]

NBC/WSJ national poll, conducted April 17-20:

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/public-gives-trump-low-marks-first-100-days-nbc-news-n749756

[Mr. Morden]

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That's very different from the numbers in every other poll:

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2018-national-house-race

[Mr. Morden]

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That's very different from the numbers in every other poll:

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2018-national-house-race

I believe most of these polls ask which party the respondent would vote for, but the Q poll asks which party they would prefer to see in control.  This may account for some of the difference.

Ah, good point.  So there are more than a few people who intend to vote Republican in their own district, but are hoping that the Dems win the majority nationwide.  Sounds like an "I like my own Representative, but the rest of his/her party stinks" type of thing.

[Mr. Morden]

Morning Consult, May 9-11 compared to May 4-6
https://morningconsult.com/2017/05/11/partisanship-strong-factor-voters-stance-comey-firing/
RV:
45 (+1)
47 (-1)

Trump job approval margin by region:
Midwest: -3
Northeast: -9
South: +6
West: -5

Trump job approval margin by race:
whites: +11
blacks: -65
Hispanics: -19

Trump job approval margin by income:
under $50k: -5
$50-100k: +4
over $100k: +5

8% of Trump voters disapprove of Trump’s job performance.  11% of Clinton voters approve of Trump’s job performance.

[Mr. Morden]

Economist/Yougov national poll, conducted May 13-16:

http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/fnsar5oaj4/econToplines.pdf

Trump job approval:
approve 39%
disapprove 51%

generic congressional ballot:
Dems 40%
GOP 33%

[Mr. Morden]

Politico/Morning Consult

42% Approve
50% Disapprove

Source

These are the worst numbers Trump has had in what has typically been his best poll. Also this poll is only post Comey firing, as it was taken before the events of Monday and Tuesday.

crosstabs:

Trump job approval margin by region:
Midwest: -6
Northeast: -14
South: +/-0
West: -20

Trump job approval margin by race:
whites: +2
blacks: -62
Hispanics: -16

Trump job approval margin by income:
under $50k: -8
$50-100k: -2
over $100k: -15

11% of Trump voters disapprove of Trump’s job performance.  10% of Clinton voters approve of Trump’s job performance.