absentee/early vote thread, part 2

[afleitch]

Returning to previous levels. If we take 2012 as a benchmark (using the 538 demographic calculator), a  10 point drop (which would be a recent historical low) in black turnout doesn't flip a state.

[afleitch]

Another positive for D

John Harwood:

"Robby Mook notes on an early vote press call that Obama lost white millennials in 2012 -- a demo Clinton is winning right now, he says."

Eh... It does not sound plausible at all. Or? I though that she was underperforming among them nationally. If so (not 100% sure), I doubt she'll do better in NV.

White male millennials were 54-41 Romney and females 49-48 according to exit polls, but millennials are only 55% white and will I think drop below 50% by 2020.

[afleitch]

To prove my point about uneducated white voters (Reps and Dems) if Florida and other ~similar states. It is not completely off-topic here, since we were talking about Dixiecrats.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/07/upshot/why-the-election-is-close-and-what-trump-and-obama-have-in-common.html

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What looks like a 7 point drop for Clinton amongst those without a degree is amongst a group with a 55% turnout in 2012.

What looks like a 12 point jump in support for Clinton amongst those with a degree is amongst a group with a 78% turnout rate in 2012.

So for every vote lost (assuming no change in turnout correlation, even if white voters as a whole go up) through non college educated voters, she's picking up 2.4 amongst those who are college educated.

[afleitch]

Either way, Republicans perpetually getting only <25% of the Hispanic vote would be awful for their long-term electoral prospects. Even if Hispanic turnout only increases a little, their pop. growth is still significant and will continue to shrink the GOP's share of the electorate every 4 years like clockwork.

Culturally, Hispanics are much more closer to non-Hispanics white than to Blacks (at least in Sweden). They indeed might be assimilated into white culture. Blacks are though lost for GOP.

I might see how GOP transforms partly into "worker class party", still holds Whites, but "assimilates" more Hispanics.

Hispanics in Sweden?