Definitely not. I blame Trump’s good polling numbers there on bad black samples.
Basically this. Many polls show Trump getting unrealistically high shares of the black vote (like 30%) or Biden getting an unrealistically low share (like 60%). Given blacks can make up around 30% of the GA electorate in Pres years, this sort of polling error is substantial.
One thing I will note is that in 2020, GA was basically the only remotely competitive swing state where Biden matched/outran polling. Polling errors don't hold constant across cycles, but I think struggling to capture how D-leaning GA blacks are is the culprit.
Poll
