leading 2012 GOP presidential candidates as of early 2009?--10/07 edition

[Mr. Morden]

OK, I did a poll that was similar to this back in March.  This one's similar, but now that the '08 presidential race is further developed, people's opinions might have shifted.  I'll probably do another poll like this in February, once the '08 nominations have been clinched, and then again in late Summer '08 after the VP nominees have been chosen.

For the purpose of this poll, assume the Democrats win the 2008 presidential election.  Whichever scenario for a Democratic victory in '08 that you think is most likely, assume that that happens.  Now here's the question: In the spring of 2009 (just ~18 months from now), who do you think will make up the media-annointed "first tier"  of potential contenders for the 2012 GOP nomination?

Unlike the previous iteration of this poll, you can now pick up to three names, but just to be clear, these are the people who you think the media and political insiders will regard as the initial "first tier".  It doesn't mean that they'll be leading in the early 2012 polls, just as (for example) Mitt Romney was regarded as a "first tier" candidate well before he reached double digits in the national polls.  (Likewise, George Allen would have been considered a "first tier" 2008 candidate in late 2005 / early 2006, but in his case his candidacy didn't go anywhere, for obvious reasons.)

My picks are: Jeb Bush, Mike Huckabee, and Mitt Romney (Huckabee and Romney would only happen if they're not nominated in 2008 and lose the general election).  I'm tempted to throw a more unknown possibility in there, like Pawlenty, but no one jumps out at me.

For fun, if you like, you can also offer your opinion on who the media will include in the very first 2012 GOP primary poll, which would probably come as early as Nov. 2008.  In 2004, McLaughlin & Associates did a 2008 poll on election day, which included these names and results:

Giuliani 30
McCain 18
Jeb Bush 5
Frist 2
Pataki 2
Romney 1
Owens 1

Their list included three people (Giuliani, McCain, and Romney) who would eventually become leading candidates for the nomination, along with a bunch of others who didn't run.

[Mr. Morden]

These were the top choices from a similar poll here in March (when you were limited to two options, and the question was phrased a bit differently):

(name, followed by # of votes)

Jeb Bush 13
Crist 8
Pence 7
Barbour 6
Pawlenty 5
Thompson 5

[Mr. Morden]

I hate to even bring this up, as in an ideal world it would be a non-issue, but what about the rumors that Crist is gay?  Are those rumors serious enough to dampen his chances in a potential presidential run?  Or even just the fact that he's single?  In today's GOP, is being single a harder sell than being on your third marriage?

[Mr. Morden]

Mike Pence, Sarah Palin and John Thune were my choices, all three apparently not very popular with others. I'll elaborate further if asked.

Yes, please elaborate.  I'm especially curious about what you think about Palin.  I don't really know much about her, other than the fact that she's one of the few Republican women to hold major elective office who's pro-life and generally socially conservative.  Maybe that's enough, if enough Republicans think that they need to put up another woman to run against Hillary Clinton, yet they can't stomach nominating a Susan Collins or a Jodi Rell....though I'm still not sure if one can successfully launch a national political campaign out of Alaska.

Oh, and on a similar note, I just found this blog:

http://palinforvp.blogspot.com/

[Mr. Morden]

So it looks like people are expecting a GOP nomination fight dominated by current or former Southern governors (Huckabee, Crist, Bush, Sanford, Barbour....).  I guess that makes some sense, since there are few current GOP Senators who obviously have their eye on the White House, and excepting small states like North Dakota, few popular GOP governors left outside the South.

Still, I wonder if Huckabee v. Crist v. Sanford v. Barbour might be Southern overload, and whether that might create an opening for a Palin or a Pence or a Pawlenty.

[Mr. Morden]

Bloomberg is an Independent now, not a Republican.  Powell will be 75 in 2012, and he's never run for public office before.  He's had ample opportunity to run for president already, and he's never taken the bait.  No reason to think he would do so in 2012.

[Mr. Morden]

FYI for anyone who's interested, I intend to start a new version of this thread (and the Dem. one) as soon as we have presumptive 2008 nominees for each party (so potentially as early as Feb. 6th), then I'll do another one probably in August or September after the VPs have been picked.

So if there are any names that you think I should include in a list of potential 2012 presidential frontrunners, that I haven't already listed in this thread on the GOP side, or in this thread:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=64257.0

on the Dem. side, let me know.