Bull Moose Base
Sr. Member
Posts: 3,488
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« on: November 29, 2013, 03:12:46 PM » |
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Here's the deal with Scott Walker. Let's use his favorite Green Bay Packers as an analogy. They won the Super Bowl 3 years ago but were 8-6 with 2 games left in the regular season and basically had to run the table, win their last 2 games, 3 playoff games on the road, then beat the AFC champ in the Super Bowl. Even though they did all that, after 14 games, they were pretty unlikely to win the Super Bowl.
Walker has to win re-election in a year (he's polling a 2 point lead against an unknown opponent), then Ryan has to decide not to run (and Ryan, while sending mixed signals, sometimes sounds very interested), then he probably has to win Iowa which, even if he's favored to, could easily not happen, then he probably has to beat Christie or something, then he'd have to beat, probably, Hillary. He could do all that of course. But I just don't see how his cumulative chance of clearing all those hurdles is above single digits. Which isn't to say the top 5 doesn't include people with single digit chances. But most of you have him too high.
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