I'm leaning toward a Republican majority-control pickup of the U.S. Senate with the midterm congressional elections of 2014.
That actually goes against historical voting pattern.
Since the 1910s, with the 17th Amendment, every president elected beyond a single term (minus Franklin Roosevelt and Richard Nixon) who had majority control of either house of Congress at any point during their presidency ended up losing one of both houses in just a single midterm cycle.
Woodrow Wilson lost the Senate and House in 1918 (not 1914 and 1918).
Dwight Eisenhower lost the Senate and House in 1954 (not 1954 and 1958).
Ronald Reagan lost the Senate in 1986 (not 1982 and 1986).
Bill Clinton lost the Senate and House in 1994 (not 1994 and 1998).
George W. Bush had the special situation, not via elections, with the Senate in 2001 but, through elections, lost the Senate and House in 2006 (not 2002, with Republican pickup of the Senate, and 2006).
Already Barack Obama lost the House in 2010. So the pattern is that he shouldn't be losing the Senate and House in 2014 after 2010.
If the consensus in the mainstream, corporate news media sticks with predicting a Republican majority-control pickup of the Senate … they better be right. Otherwise, they're gonna look corrupt. Just like Gallup did with their presidential polling results for 2012.
For a Republican pickup of the U.S. Senate (with 2014): I would anticipate every Republican seat held. The Republican pickups would come from the open-seat races in Iowa (perhaps the tipping point), Montana, South Dakota, and West Virginia. For reaching the majority-No. 51, incumbent Democrats would become unseated in Alaska and Arkansas. Any more beyond that tilts the final numbers to 53 to 55 for the Republican caucus.
That is because typically when they lose majority in the first term, the two sides come together and voters reelect both together like 1956 and 1996. However, I would point out that prior to 2010, voters had never changed the majority in the House without chnaging the Senate, but just like very other rule, they exist until they are broken.
