MT-AL: Rob Quist (D) vs. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Mark Wicks (L), May 25

[Chief Justice Keef]

Look - Democrats don't have to care about electing Rob Quist to the House. They should be energized to oppose god damn Greg Gianforte, of carpet bagging, sales tax instituting, creation museum creating, public land selling fame. He's a genuine HP who deserves to be beat and beat badly.

All they need to do is cut an ad about how Gianforte doesn't think you should be able to retire. Quist would win by more than 10 points.

[Chief Justice Keef]

"We don't wanna give him money because it'll nationalize the race" is such a cop out.

WHICH IS SOMETHING REPUBLICANS DO ANYWAYS. They've already cut attack ads that portray Quist as a pawn of Pelosi.

It's because it doesn't fit their narrative. They want to win in GA-6 with Ossoff because it'll show that their "trade a blue collar vote for a white suburban vote" strategy was actually right all along, and having a populist win wouldn't contribute anything to that.

[Chief Justice Keef]

"We don't wanna give him money because it'll nationalize the race" is such a cop out.

WHICH IS SOMETHING REPUBLICANS DO ANYWAYS. They've already cut attack ads that portray Quist as a pawn of Pelosi.

It's because it doesn't fit their narrative. They want to win in GA-6 with Ossoff because it'll show that their "trade a blue collar vote for a white suburban vote" strategy was actually right all along, and having a populist win wouldn't contribute anything to that.

Do you even read this forum? cinyc's link shows that the DCCC dumped a six-figure sum into the MT Democratic Party.

That's only a small fraction of what the Montana Democratic party laundered for the Hillary Victory Fund. Sad!

[Chief Justice Keef]

Rob Quist Turned Down A Visit From DNC Chair Tom Perez

Not surprising, but this doesn't sound to me like Perez isn't trying everything to get Quist elected.

It's so great to see Perez get constantly shat on.

[Chief Justice Keef]

And here is the first and last "official" debate between the three candidates

I actually watched the entire thing for some reason. Not that these debates really matter, but I thought it was a very underwhelming performance by Quist (he dodged a lot questions and kept repeating his usual "But Russia" and "But millionayhs" talking points, etc.). Remember when he sounded like a dove?

Say what you want about Gianforte, but he sounded pretty authentic for the most past, especially at the end.

Quist certainly isn't living up to the hype he has been getting here.  I no longer think this will be close.  Ambitious MT Dems should probably hold out for the chance of an MT-02 to run in come 2022.  The redistricting commission constitutional amendment would basically ensure an all western MT seat would be created.

I still think Quist narrowly wins by single digits if Democrats get more involved in May. But the way their "analysts" seem to be writing this race off is disconcerting.

[Chief Justice Keef]

Gianforte apparently won't say if he supports the AHCA or not.

[Chief Justice Keef]

Gianforte apparently won't say if he supports the AHCA or not.

I'm not sure if this statement will help or hurt him

If the Quist campaign highlights Gianforte's flip-flop on it and emphasizes Quist's support for universal healthcare that might boost his numbers.

[Chief Justice Keef]

Conventional wisdom has Pianoforte winning. My gut says Quist.

[Chief Justice Keef]

The specials held in the shadow of stupid watergate will be disasters for the republicans!

I feel like this shift has more to do with AHCA than Russiagate, but regardless, seems like Quist is definitely gaining.

[Chief Justice Keef]

OMG Quist smoked pot!!!111!!!!11!!!!!(one)!!!!!!11

Only makes my opinion of him go higher

[Chief Justice Keef]

The NRA rated Bullock and Tester badly too, and they still won.

Bullock has a C and Tester has an A-. Quist has a freaking F. Gianforte has an A. Could be a large game changer. Also, you have to look at the weed and nude resort issue from Montana's view, and not ours. Hopefully you are right about it, Since I really want Quist to win, but Montana is a socially conservative state, and those two things could be potential game changers.

I'm pretty sure social conservatism isn't going to make a difference in the wake of AHCA and Russiagate.

[Chief Justice Keef]

Bahahahaha. What a legitimately pathetic pollster. I have no doubt they pulled the numbers out of their ass at the last minute.

[Chief Justice Keef]

On a bigger note, why didn't any respectable pollsters get a read on this race? All we got was Gravis and a bunch of Google surveys.

[Chief Justice Keef]

LMAOOOO

[Chief Justice Keef]

The story probably lies somewhere in the middle. I still see Quist having a very small advantage over Gianforte in this race, but it's going to be close.

[Chief Justice Keef]

Quist's shares on PredictIt boosted up 17 cents after this news broke. I'm pretty confident this'll have a negligible effect on election-day voters.

Regardless, Gianforte is a piece of s--t and I really hope he doesn't win tomorrow for several reasons, especially this.

[Chief Justice Keef]

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HOLY CRAP

[Chief Justice Keef]

Apparently Jacobs is in critical condition and he can't breathe.

OMG, fck Gianforte.

[Chief Justice Keef]

This might be a silly question, but why are there national reporters IN montana to cover this, and why is a girlfriend of said reporter even there?

Does jacobs live in montana?

Probably because of the big statewide special election tomorrow?

[Chief Justice Keef]

Apparently Jacobs is in critical condition and he can't breathe.

OMG, fck Gianforte.

If that is true, how did the reporter tweet about it?

Must've been over the scanner.

[Chief Justice Keef]

Saw Chris Hayes tweet about this, so expect it to get picked up by national news.

[Chief Justice Keef]

quist goes the high road.....

https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/867529888714149888

Looking at that video I'm guessing he literally just found about it from the reporter. Good for him taking the high road, I guess.

[Chief Justice Keef]

With the details regarding Jacobs condition and Gianforte being arrested, I retract my previous statement and my endorsement of Gianforte. This is a despicable, sinful, and unignorable incident. I endorse Libertarian Candidate Mark Wicks for this election.

You are reading fake tweets, bro. Jacobs is not in critical condition and there is no arrest warrant.

There are literally witnesses and photos.

[Chief Justice Keef]

Jacobs himself says there was a local TV crew at the scene, and The Guardian has audio of the incident.

Gianforte is done.

[Chief Justice Keef]

even if this is going to be a major story, it's too late.

It's going to be on the radio when voters drive to the polls tomorrow.