Ireland Election 2007

[Јas]

RTE's prediction's underestimated FF by 7 seats (71), FG by 9 (42); and overestimated Labour by 5 (25), Greens by 1 (7), SF by 6 (10), PDs by 1 (3), Indies by 2 (7), as well as predicting the sole Socialist TD holding his seat

It's conceivable that SF could, or even should, have won more but even where they poll relatively well (assuming well is the right word to use), they just don't seem to get the transfers they need from elsewhere; which kind of enhances the fact that they are the "Billy no mates of Irish politics"

This old FPTP-er is actually starting to warm to STV, but don't tell any one !

One of the (many) things I like about STV (and I don't think I'm alone) is that you get to vote against individuals. I saw Garret Fitzgerald during one of the counts trying to help explain to system to the American pollster Frank Luntz and he used the example of an election in a constituency he was working in many years ago where apparantly a huge number of votes turned out just to put the SF candidate at the bottom of the ballot.

SF continue to have a significant problem attracting transfers which contrasts with the Greens, often dubbed as 'transfer magnets'.
For example, the four TDs SF got elected had the following quota proportions on the first count: 1; 0.82; 0.75; 0.61.
Compare that with the Greens 6 TDs: 0.69; 0.68; 0.66; 0.54; 0.48; 0.46.
The Greens TDs can come in at the first count significantly lower than SF, simply because they can expect transfers from all over the place.

Actually, only 5 TDs got elected this time out after polling less than half a quota on the first count - 2 of them were Greens (Mary White - Carlow/Kilkenny; and Ciaran Cuffe - Dun Laoighaire). The other three made it because of huge transfers from their own party [Peter Power (FF-Limerick East) benefitted from Willie O'Dea's huge surplus; Ulick Burke (FG-Galway East) benefitted from his 3 running mates; and Cyprian Brady (FF-Dublin Central) got there largely thanks to Bertie Ahern's surplus].

Question, however, when surplus votes are reallocated, how do they work out which ones to reallocate?

Say if a quota is 10,000, and Candidate A polls 11,000 giving a surplus of 1,000, do they just count out 10 random ballots, then pick an 11th to reallocate ... and so on?

Dave

Our system distributes surpluses in two different ways depending on when  the surplus occurs: on the first preferences or on transfers gained.

In your example it occurs on the first count.

So, say in your example, our guy, A, has 11,000 votes and so a surplus of 1,000. The returning officer will have the ballots sorted then of candidate A into piles depending on the second preferences. Say, for example this analysis shows that of the 11,000 - 5,500 have 2nd preferences for A's running mate - B; another 2,750 have 2nd preferences for candidate C; 1,100 go to candidate D and so on.

The surplus of 1,000 is distributed proportionately but yet also somewhat randomly. So, in our example, Candidate B was second preferenced by half of A's votes - he will therefore get half of the surplus - 500 votes. The 500 votes are to be selected at random from the pile of votes which first preferenced A and second preferenced B.

Similarly, in this case candidate C was second preferenced by a tenth of A's votes and so will get a tenth of the surplus, or 100 votes. Again these will be selected randomly from the 1,100 votes which first preferenced A and second preferenced C.

Phew...
Now method 2.
This is used when candidates pass the quota at some point after the first count. This is much simpler but also more random - it's essentially a last in, first out system.

If a candidate gets a transfer to elect him and gives him a surplus of say 1000 votes. Basically, the the last 1000 votes added to his pile will be the one's transfered.

These are the methods used here but AFAIK there are quite a few other possibilities. I think the North use a system with much reduced randomness. I don't know how Malta or Tasmania (the only other places I understand that use STV) do it.

[Hash]

If I may ask Jas, who/which party did you vote for?

Feel free to not answer if you feel I'm asking too much.

[Јas]

If I may ask Jas, who/which party did you vote for?

Feel free to not answer if you feel I'm asking too much.

No problem. I voted in the Cavan-Monaghan constituency as follows:

1. P. Connolly (Ind) [Campaigns on the issue of services at Monaghan Hospital; was elected in 2002; got a hard time for not having managed to gain improvements in services there - but being an Independent outside of government that was never likely; sensing a cull in the Independents, I figured he could swing massive improvement in services if he got back in]

2. V. Martin (Grn) [Atypical Green; stood as an Independent in 2002; stands out on planning and zoning matters at local level; also I was impressed by the Green campaign and liked some of their taxation suggestions; also Monaghan based]

3. D. Cullen (Lab) [I like Rabbitte (Lab leader) and I liked the Labour campaign in general also, especially on reforms at local goverment level;however, the candidate here is at best ineffectual, he's also Cavan based and I am mindful of geography in my ballot also]
 
4. S. Crawford (FG) [Now a candidate I wasn't so much for, but then I wasn't particularly against either. I'm not a fan of Enda Kenny (FG leader) but Crawford is a reasonably good constituency TD, he's also Monaghan based]
 
5. C. Ó Caoláin (SF) [From here on are the candidates who I'm more against than in favour of. I'm not a fan of SF, for the obvious reasons, but they are certainly on the right track and without the work of the SF leadership NI would still be a write-off. Ó Caoláin is a good constituency TD; an articulate (if long winded) speaker in the Dáil; and Monaghan based]

6. M. Conlon (FF) [I really am not a fan of Conlon. The entire Monaghan FF organisation effectively refused to stand unless FF HQ agreed to move on the Monaghan hospital issue. FF had massive problems trying to find someone, anyone for this position - indeed, it was their last candidature filled. Conlon agreed to step forward without any concessions on the hospital. I was not, and am not best pleased about it. She ranks higher than the final three almost solely because she is a Monaghan candidate]

7. TJ Fay (Ind) [I know almost nothing about this man and I certainly tried to find out. All I know is that he's a photographer from Cavan and has stood before in one of the Dublin constituencies and won only a handful of votes]

8. B. Smith (FF) [Cavan's FF offering. If the Monaghan FF candidate isn't offering anything on the hospital issue, then he certainly isn't.]

9. J. O'Reilly (FG) [Cavan's FG offering. Generally strikes me as rather inept.]

Clearly, my vote tells you that the health issue and geography are important factors in deciding my vote. I'm also more concerned about the individual than the party to a large extent. If it wasn't for the local health issue, FF (or at least whoever their Monaghan candidate would've been) would've done better.

On the day mine was one of the 3955 ballots (0.3 of a quota) that went to Connolly. Connolly was eliminated on Count 3. Count 4 was the distibution of his and Martin's (Grn) votes. Mine would have transfered to Crawford (FG) [by-passing the eliminated Martin and Cullen] helping to elect him on that count - which it turned out was the final count.

The constituency elected Smith (FF); Ó Caoláin (SF); Crawford (FG); and Conlon (FF).

[minionofmidas]

Leinster outside Dublin:
FF: FF 11,760; FG 3439; GP 905; PD 722; SF 559; Labour 456; i 438; exhausted 512
FG: FG 23,910; FF 2957; Labour 2607; GP 1125; i 919; SF 905; PD 156; exhausted 3219
Labour: FG 9188; FF 3886; GP 3725; Labour 3172; SF 894; PD 73; exhausted 2577
SF: FF 4951; FG 4466; Labour 3317; GP 1589; i 326; PD 265; exhausted 3191
GP: Labour 6689; FG 6539; SF 2050; i 1092; FF 1073; PD 66; exhausted 3829
PD: FF 4754; FG 2501; Labour 693; GP 209; SF 197; i 70; exhausted 1468
i: FG 3916; FF 2919; Labour 2251; GP 1330; SF 752; i 464; PD 133; exhausted 1267
multiple eliminations: Labour 1774; FG 1706; FF 1529; GP 1082; i 660; SF 308; PD 172; exhausted 546

the Monster:
FF: FF 29,269; FG 5436; Labour 3589; i 3488; PD 2130; GP 1453; SF 279; exhausted 4689
FG: FG 16,601; Labour 6248; FG 5641; i 3400; GP 829; SF 686; PD 40; exhausted 2209
Labour: FG 14,470; FF 6673; i 2736; Labour 1776; exhausted 5413
SF: Labour 5924; FF 5772; FG 5331; i 1050; Gp 875; PD 144; exhausted 4462
GP: FG 7347; Labour 6744; FF 2650; i 1192; SF 452; PD 58; exhausted 2481
i: FG 3958; Labour 3567; FF 3388; SF 2624; i 1194; GP 723; PD 204; exhausted 1757
multiple eliminations: FG 5827; FF 5380; Labour 3405; GP 1360; SF 1202; i 798; exhausted 1996

No, I did not forget to list PD. Of 13 constituencies in Munster (5 in Cork, 2 each in Kerry, Limerick and Tipperary, one each for Clare and Waterford) 7 went uncontested by the party, in five was their candidate involved in multiple eliminations (twice with Greens, twice with Labour, and once with Sinn Fein), and one ended up as the runner-up.

[Democratic Hawk]

Question, however, when surplus votes are reallocated, how do they work out which ones to reallocate?

Say if a quota is 10,000, and Candidate A polls 11,000 giving a surplus of 1,000, do they just count out 10 random ballots, then pick an 11th to reallocate ... and so on?

Dave

Our system distributes surpluses in two different ways depending on when  the surplus occurs: on the first preferences or on transfers gained.

In your example it occurs on the first count.

So, say in your example, our guy, A, has 11,000 votes and so a surplus of 1,000. The returning officer will have the ballots sorted then of candidate A into piles depending on the second preferences. Say, for example this analysis shows that of the 11,000 - 5,500 have 2nd preferences for A's running mate - B; another 2,750 have 2nd preferences for candidate C; 1,100 go to candidate D and so on.

The surplus of 1,000 is distributed proportionately but yet also somewhat randomly. So, in our example, Candidate B was second preferenced by half of A's votes - he will therefore get half of the surplus - 500 votes. The 500 votes are to be selected at random from the pile of votes which first preferenced A and second preferenced B.

Similarly, in this case candidate C was second preferenced by a tenth of A's votes and so will get a tenth of the surplus, or 100 votes. Again these will be selected randomly from the 1,100 votes which first preferenced A and second preferenced C.

Phew...
Now method 2.
This is used when candidates pass the quota at some point after the first count. This is much simpler but also more random - it's essentially a last in, first out system.

If a candidate gets a transfer to elect him and gives him a surplus of say 1000 votes. Basically, the the last 1000 votes added to his pile will be the one's transfered.

These are the methods used here but AFAIK there are quite a few other possibilities. I think the North use a system with much reduced randomness. I don't know how Malta or Tasmania (the only other places I understand that use STV) do it.

Thanks Jas.

Of course, thinking about STV in UK parliamentary elections, I'd just to have to rank all the Labour ones from most favourite to least because:

a) I don't want any Lib Dem representing me in the House of Commons (bad enough my city councillors are Lib Dem)
b) I don't want a Conservative government

Of course, under STV, no doubt we'd see a wide array of candidates beyond that of Labour, Conservative or Lib Dem

Dave

[Јas]

Of course, under STV, no doubt we'd see a wide array of candidates beyond that of Labour, Conservative or Lib Dem

Absolutely, may even lead to the break up of parties. The LibDems, for instance, could probably split into a few parties.

Would Labour be able to remain one party?

The Greens would no doubt get a few MPs.
UKIP? BNP? - maybe not in 3 or 4 seaters, but in 5 or 6 seaters - they could    also contest for a few seats.
I'd imagine a few Independents could also find their way in.

A significant change though would be that there may be permanent coalition government, which it seems many proponents of FPTP see as a significant benefit.

It would certainly be very interesting.

[Democratic Hawk]

First preference performance of FF, FG, Labour and Green (national parties in that they contested all 43 constituencies) in relation to their share of the national vote:

Dublin

Central: FF +2.9; FG -17.8; Lab +2.5; Green +1.1
Mid-West: FF -8.6; FG -15.3; Lab +0.8; Green +6.1
North: FF +0.5; FG -13.3; Lab -0.5; Green +12.0
North-Central: FF + 2.4; FG -1.8; Lab -2.8; Green +0.5
North-East: FF -1.9; FG -4.4; Lab +5.1; Green +2.0
North-West: FF +7.2; FG -17.3; Lab +10.2; Green -1.9
South: FF -0.3; FG 0; Lab +0.3; Green +6.4
South-Central: FF -8.5; FG -12.9; Lab +11.0; Green +1.1
South-East: FF -12.9; FG -8.7; Lab +6.6; Green +9.1
South-West: FF -2.3; FG -7.3; Lab +9.9; Green -1.0
West: FF -4.2; FG -6.9; Lab +7.0; Green -0.9
Dun Laoghaire: FF -6.7; FG -3.7; Lab +5.9; Green +3.0

Leinster

Carlow-Kilkenny: FF +6.1; FG +2.3; Lab -0.8; Green +3.3
Kildare North: FF -2.1; FG -6.1; Lab +7.3; Green +0.2
Kildare South: FF +8.8; FG -10.1; Lab +10.6; Green +1.5
Laois-Offaly: FF +14.8; FG +0.1; Lab -7.7; Green -3.6
Longford-Westmeath: FF -0.4; FG +3.7; Lab +7.5; Green -3.0
Louth: FF +0.5; FG +2.1; Lab -5.1; Green +2.9
Meath East: FF +2.0; FG -1.4; Lab +1.8; Green -1.6
Meath West: FF +10.0; FG +1.7: Lab -6.1; Green -2.2
Wexford: FF +0.6; FG +4.3; Lab +3.7; Green -3.5
Wicklow: FF -3.5; FG -4.1; Lab +6.2; Green +2.7

Cork

East: FF -3.6; FG +3.6; Lab +10.8; Green -1.8
North-Central: FF -5.9; FG +0.3; Lab +2.2; Green -1.2
North-West: FF +11.5; FG +11.1; Lab -5.2; Green -1.1
South-Central: FF +2.7; FG +1.1; Lab -0.8; Green +3.7
South-West: FF +1.0; FG +8.7; Lab -0.5; Green +2.0

Munster

Clare: FF +2.4; FG +7.9; Lab -8.5; Green +0.4
Kerry North: FF -10.3; FG +5.0; Lab +0.8; Green -2.8
Kerry South: FF -0.9; FG -2.2; Lab +3.4; Green -2.8
Limerick East: FF +7.1; FG -1.8; Lab +0.2; Green -2.1
Limerick West: FF +5.6; FG +12.7; Lab -4.5; Green -2.3
Tipperary North: FF -7.3; FG -11.4; Lab +0.2; Green -3.6
Tipperary South: FF +4.8; FG -6.2; Lab -1.3; Green -3.2
Waterford: FF +4.9; FG +0.1; Lab +1.2; Green -2.6

Connacht

Galway East: FF -1.9; FG +11.8; Lab -7.0; Green -2.8
Galway West: FF -4.5; FG -6.9; Lab +0.9; Green +0.8
Mayo: FF -17.1; FG +26.5; Lab -8.9; Green -3.9
Roscommon-South Leitrim: FF -2.8; FG +11.8; Lab -8.3; Green -2.9
Sligo-North Leitrim: FF -0.6; FG +12.0; Lab -6.2; Green -1.7

Ulster

Cavan-Monaghan: FF -3.8; FG +3.9; Lab -8.9; Green -1.1
Donegal North-East: FF +8.7; FG -4.7; Lab -8.3; Green -3.4
Donegal South-West: FF +8.9; FG -4.3; Lab -7.3; Green -3.2

[Јas]

Today confirmed that FF have contacted the Greens, PDs and certain Independents (Flynn; Healy-Rae; and McGrath confirmed). McGrath, in particular, is ecstatic to be getting so much attention.

Further the ex-FG independent Lowry (Tipp N) has announced that he would prefer the FF option given the numbers. (!)

FF have not contacted the Labour party...yet.

Enda Kenny has already had discussions with Labour; the Greens; the PDs; and Independents.

As of now, the formation of the next government seems to me, to be in the hands of de facto PD leader Mary Harney. The balancing issue is that on the one hand she could retain the Ministry of Health, however that comes at the cost of re-entering with Ahern over whom serious questions hang. The alternative cannot offer anything so nice a deal for her, Health is out of the question.

The FF option has to be the favourite. She's worked with Ahern for 10 years, there would be far less ideological difficulties in siting with FF than with Labour and the Greens; a seat at the cabinet table; and the possibility that a 1 or 2 PDs would be part of the Taoiseach's nominations to the Senate thus maximising a depleted parliamentary party. Kenny just can't match an offer like that.

[Јas]

It has now been confirmed that FF have made contact with all Independents, except Tony Gregory. Also, policy documents have been exchanged with the Greens.

It seems that FF will be conducting 2 sets of negotiations - the Greens on one hand and the PDs/Inds on the other - hoping to play them off against each other.


Meanwhile, the PDs issued a statement last night effectively in response to the recent statements of Tom Parlon (PD Party President, ex-Laois Offaly TD) which seemed to indicate that FF was the only realisitc option.

The PD statement reads as follows:
"The national executive of the PDs has mandated Mary Harney to decide the best course of action for the party in terms of the options for government or otherwise. Mary Harney has been keeping her counsel on these matters. She has not ruled anything in or out. She now intends to take a short break."

If nothing else it improves the PD bargaining position with FF. Harney must be able to show FF that she is prepared to side with the alternative in order to maximise what she can get from the negotiations.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Oh god there is so much things in this thread I wish to post.. damn, my 12 day absence. I was down in the constituency which recorded the highest Fianna Fail vote in the country, Laois-Offaly. I walked past the counting center on Friday Morning on my way to work.. all I heard was muttering, something about a "surge". I figured he was referring to an FG surge.. so I was optimistic, I didn't hear the results of Exit poll at this point. Maybe he was referring to an FG surge, it doesn't matter - Fianna Fail sucked all their support back into the "big Vacuum" (more a Big Vacuum than a Big tent) just as matters it most. When I first heard the news at 12:00 I almost literally fell off my seat when it was announced that FF had a chance of winning 3 seats in my home constituency - Dublin South. For a moment a repeat of the election of 1977 - that great con job - flashed as a possibly. Luckily Maria Corrigan finished sixth and well off the final seat.

An abscene which meant, along with confusion about postal ballots, I couldn't get a chance to vote. Either way, my probable first choice in Dublin South (Alan Shatter - FG) got elected anyway, so some good news.

I don't think there is any doubt that Ahern will be Taoiseach, To Quote Neil Delamare "He [Enda] will need Labour, The Greens, The PDs, The Independents, the weirdos, the orcs, the elves and Jackie Healy Rae".

I'm not really in a ranting mood (Sorry Folks!) so suffice to say I'm rather dissapointed, though not very surprised in the end. There is a sense in this country right now that things are about to go 'wrong' - The natural fatalism is part of the Irish condition - and thus if we changed the goverment in 2007 just as 'bad stuff' (never really defined; though it usually has something to do with the Housing market.) started to appear it would appear foolish and dumb. Better leave Good Ol' Captain Bertie on charge of sinking ship.. so that he can make it sink less.

I've been thinking of doing a British Electoral map with PR-STV, though I'm thinking of prodding Al into doing it instead.

[minionofmidas]

Yeah, I'd been wondering about your absence.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Yeah, I'd been wondering about your absence.

Yay! I've been noticed!!11

[Democratic Hawk]

Meanwhile, Rebel TD Dr Jim McDaid (FF-Donegal North East) threatens to pull the plug on Ahern

http://www.independent.ie/national-news/rebel-td-threatens-to-pull-the-plug-on-ahern-689953.html

Dr McDaid claimed his party had given him no support during the election, and added: "They gave me nothing and I owe them nothing."

Although returned in Donegal North East, Dr McDaid said: "Fianna Fail gave me no support whatever. I was treated as an independent deputy and everyone knows that."

Dave

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Meanwhile, Rebel TD Dr Jim McDaid (FF-Donegal North East) threatens to pull the plug on Ahern

http://www.independent.ie/national-news/rebel-td-threatens-to-pull-the-plug-on-ahern-689953.html

Dr McDaid claimed his party had given him no support during the election, and added: "They gave me nothing and I owe them nothing."

Although returned in Donegal North East, Dr McDaid said: "Fianna Fail gave me no support whatever. I was treated as an independent deputy and everyone knows that."

Dave

I pay that little heed. While McDaid has good reason (from what I've read) to be pissed with FF headquarters - though not as much as some other TDs or ex-TDs - this article doesn't mention his history of attention whoring. He'll be brought into line - for "stability" of course.

All the safe money is on FF-PD minority; but I must say I can't believe this is a good move for the Progressive Democrats - If they are to survive they should now go into opposition after receiving such a major hammering. If they didn't they might as well merge with FF.

[minionofmidas]

Meanwhile, Rebel TD Dr Jim McDaid (FF-Donegal North East) threatens to pull the plug on Ahern

http://www.independent.ie/national-news/rebel-td-threatens-to-pull-the-plug-on-ahern-689953.html

Dr McDaid claimed his party had given him no support during the election, and added: "They gave me nothing and I owe them nothing."

Although returned in Donegal North East, Dr McDaid said: "Fianna Fail gave me no support whatever. I was treated as an independent deputy and everyone knows that."

Dave

There was massive infighting in Donegal NE. McDaid only ran again to prevent Neil Blaney from reelection, who had recently joined FF but in his own previous independent tenure was basically SF lite. (The Blaney family has a long history in representing the area with such an agenda, first within FF, then outside it. And now back in.) The end result was that the mainline FF candidate fell by the wayside, with the pro- and anti-SF wings getting in.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Meanwhile, Rebel TD Dr Jim McDaid (FF-Donegal North East) threatens to pull the plug on Ahern

http://www.independent.ie/national-news/rebel-td-threatens-to-pull-the-plug-on-ahern-689953.html

Dr McDaid claimed his party had given him no support during the election, and added: "They gave me nothing and I owe them nothing."

Although returned in Donegal North East, Dr McDaid said: "Fianna Fail gave me no support whatever. I was treated as an independent deputy and everyone knows that."

Dave

There was massive infighting in Donegal NE. McDaid only ran again to prevent Neil Blaney from reelection, who had recently joined FF but in his own previous independent tenure was basically SF lite. (The Blaney family has a long history in representing the area with such an agenda, first within FF, then outside it. And now back in.) The end result was that the mainline FF candidate fell by the wayside, with the pro- and anti-SF wings getting in.

SF-lite? Well debatable.. especially in recent years, there was no actual reason for Niall Blaney to be an independant - the original reason of his uncles explusion from the party was just that - his uncle's - over 35 years ago now. Plus Harry Blaney (Familyarchy is right!) was one of the independents who supported the FF-PD coalition between 1997-2002. Though I've read that Blaney and McDaid's campaigns basically didn't have any communication at all and in the end both camps hated each other. Worth noting that both are based in Letterkenny - the major town in the Constituency, while Keaveney (The other FF Candidate) was based in Inishowen.

Of course Nationalist feeling are much stronger in Donegal as in all the other Border counties - Only need to look at SF's results to prove that.

On Neil Blaney (Niall's uncle): http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neil_Blaney

[Јas]

Oh god there is so much things in this thread I wish to post.. damn, my 12 day absence.

Well the next general election might be 5 years away... so might as well give us your thoughts to chew on for a while.

I don't think there is any doubt that Ahern will be Taoiseach, To Quote Neil Delamare "He [Enda] will need Labour, The Greens, The PDs, The Independents, the weirdos, the orcs, the elves and Jackie Healy Rae".

[minionofmidas]

Oh god there is so much things in this thread I wish to post.. damn, my 12 day absence.

Well the next general election might be 5 years away... so might as well give us your thoughts to chew on for a while.

I don't think there is any doubt that Ahern will be Taoiseach, To Quote Neil Delamare "He [Enda] will need Labour, The Greens, The PDs, The Independents, the weirdos, the orcs, the elves and Jackie Healy Rae".

Healy-Rae is listed four times!

[Јas]

On the whole McDaid thing. He doesn't have any credibility outside his constituency.

He is somewhat maverick and there's no doubt that relations with HQ are very poor. McDaid's entire political career has been an anti-Blaney movement - the reason he was chosen to run first in 1989 (17 days before the election) was to try and unseat Neil T. Blaney (Independent FF) (For background on the Blaney's and the reasons for setting up Independent FF, see this wiki piece on the Arm's Crisis. He ended up unseating his party colleague instead.

While the Independent FF group would be closer to SF than FF, McDaid has had embarrassing links before. In '89, he made representations to the Minister for Justice on behalf of a Provisional IRA member fighting extradition proceedings to the UK. He attended the court proceedings which refused the extradition. A photograph afterwards showing McDaid and Clarke (the IRA member) shaking hands proved very controversial and later derailed his imminent appointment as Minister for Defence, under Charles Haughey.

Dr. McDaid eventually made it to cabinet, two Taoisigh later, under Ahern, as Minister for Tourism and Sport, however he was eventually demoted back to Junior Minister/Minister of State level at the Department of Transport and later out of government altogether. In 2005 he garnered publicity for being caught driving on the wrong side of a motorway and being more than three times over the blood-alcohol limit. He was arrested, banned from driving for two years and fined €750. (McDaid had previously been involved with the Department of Transport's anti-drink driving campaign.)

He announced his intention to retire last year, but reversed the decision when Niall Blaney (nephew of Neil T. above) returned to FF proper. He was unhappy about the level of support/co-operation he got from HQ.

Given his background, Dr. McDaid cannot be totally dismissed in saying that the government cannot necessarily rely on his support. It would still be very surprising if he carried out his threat though.

[minionofmidas]

Department of Transport and later out of government altogether. In 2005 he garnered publicity for being caught driving on the wrong side of a motorway.

doesn#t everybody in Ireland drive on the wrong side of the road?

[Јas]

Department of Transport and later out of government altogether. In 2005 he garnered publicity for being caught driving on the wrong side of a motorway.

doesn#t everybody in Ireland drive on the wrong side of the road?

It's OK, so long as everybody does it.

[Democratic Hawk]

Seemingly there was a bit of a ruck among Fine Gaeler's in Donegal North East as well; though, of course, Jimmy Harte's Independent candidacy, ultimately, wasn't much of a threat to Joe McHugh. In fact, transfers from Harte and Labour's Siobhan McLaighlin saw him first across the finish line on the 5th count

Is it just me or does the nature of STV predispose some of Ireland's politicians towards, how shall I put it, "spitting their dummies out" !

Apparently, all wasn't well within the ranks of FG down in Waterford either between 'camps' Deasy and Coffey

What's with Jackie Healy-Rae? He seems to attract a lot of ridicule

Dave

[Јas]

Seemingly there was a bit of a ruck among Fine Gaeler's in Donegal North East as well; though, of course, Jimmy Harte's Independent candidacy, ultimately, wasn't much of a threat to Joe McHugh. In fact, transfers from Harte and Labour's Siobhan McLaighlin saw him first across the finish line on the 5th count

Is it just me or does the nature of STV predispose some of Ireland's politicians towards, how shall I put it, "spitting their dummies out" !

Apparently, all wasn't well within the ranks of FG down in Waterford either between 'camps' Deasy and Coffey

Well I don't know if it's STV or some element of the Irish temperament or both or something completely different... but yes, this sort of this isn't rare.

Local councillors usually, who feel hard done by because they feel party HQ has decided to run too few candidates, or because HQ has imposed candidates without holding local conventions, or because they feel something was up with the local convention or whatever.

It's usually FF which suffer this problem as FF HQ usually (and rightly) keeps the number of candidate numbers tight, and (not so rightly) more often impose candidates without local conventions.

But yes, Harte in Donegal is an example of FG having this problem. he disagreed with the 1 man strategy.

Labour also had the same problem with Katherine Connolly in Galway West, she also disagreed with the 1 candidate strategy.

Usually these people don't get anywhere, and damage their potential to get on the ticket next time...but just so often they are able to build up local support and get elected.

I should also say that often times the bitterest constituency rivalries are between party colleagues. Simply because the candidates will know that there is really only a percentage of the votes likely to go to their party and that for the most part, someone from the party ticket will lose out.

What's with Jackie Healy-Rae? He seems to attract a lot of ridicule

JHR spent decades as a local FF activist/councillor in Kerry and sought the FF nomination to run in the 1997 General, but HQ refused to ratify him. He ran as an Independent and topped the poll. Between 97-02, he was one of 3 Independent TDs who did a deal with FF and the PDs to support their government - in return he got significant investment for his constituency. Even since 2002, Betrie Ahern held regular meeting with the three Independents (Mildred Fox [Wicklow; retired 2007], Neil Blaney [Donegal NE; now in FF proper] and Healy-Rae) keeping them abreast of government actions. Any constituency matters of theirs could still be guaranteed to be given full attention to from government ministers.

The reason why he attracts criticism is because in many ways he's a stereotype of 'Irishness' than no-one wants to see reaching a wide audience. He looks like a small-time farmer and has a very strong Kerry accent (which I dare say may make him unintelligible to foreigners).

In Britain, John Prescott attracts quite a bit of ridicule (for his appearance and ability to mangle language). Imagine if he had say, both looked and sounded like a West Country farmer as well.

All this is not to say that Healy-Rae is not an effective politician. He has delivered a lot for his constituency and I understand that he is a good constituency TD, but I do cringe when I hear him speak as a member of the national legislature.

[Јas]

FF and the Greens will hold exploratory talks tomorrow morning at Government Buildings.

FF Press Release:
"Fianna Fáil and the Green Party have this afternoon separately completed their study and assessment of the policy and discussion documents which they exchanged in recent days.

Fianna Fáil has now been informed by the Green Party that, following meetings of their Parliamentary Party and their National Executive Council, that the documents contain sufficient common policy objectives to allow for formal talks to commence between both sides, as to the possible formation of a coalition government. Fianna Fail is of a similar view.

Talks, therefore, have now been arranged between delegations from both parties, beginning tomorrow morning and continuing, it's expected, for a number of days."

[Democratic Hawk]

Independent TD Michael Lowry has confirmed he has accepted an invitation from the Taoiseach, Bertie Ahern, to negotiate on the terms of his involvement in a cross-party alliance to provide a stable government.

http://www.rte.ie/news/2007/0603/lowrym.html

Although, a former FG Minister, Lowry, given the outcome of the election, doesn't envisage Enda Kenny having any realistic prospect of forming a government

Dave