US House Redistricting: Pennsylvania

[Verily]

How can they possibly combine Schwartz and Fattah? That would be an immediate suit on intentional dilution of the black vote, and there's no way they can create just two Democratic seats in the Philly metro (so they can't do it unless they're going to throw one of their other incumbents to the wolves--in which case Schwartz would probably just move there than fight Fattah).

[Brittain33]

How can they possibly combine Schwartz and Fattah? That would be an immediate suit on intentional dilution of the black vote, and there's no way they can create just two Democratic seats in the Philly metro.

Maybe they want to take out Schwartz as a potential statewide candidate and would create a different 3rd Dem district with her home in the 2nd?

[Verily]

But... she would just move. And they didn't address whose seat will be eliminated.

[Torie]

There is plenty of interesting gossip in this discussion, much of it different from speculation we've made before.

http://www.politicspa.com/exclusive-pa%E2%80%99s-gop-congessional-delegation-coming-to-harrisburg-to-discuss-redistricting-scenarios/22138/

Critz is protected because neighboring Republicans don't want more Dem voters... but Altmire's district could be made more Republican without being dismantled. (So how do they account for lost population in the west?)

Merging Schwartz and Fattah is discussed. Maybe this is what KP was alluding to?

No Republican votes wasted on shoring up Barletta. He sinks or swims on his own.  

Per reading the article, it doesn't make the slightest sense to me, and the numbers don't work. They must be on crack. And how do you make Critz safe, even if you wanted to? They must be on crack, or the reporter is being fed a line of disinformation. And combine Fattah and Swartz, while protecting all the Philly area Pubbies?  Ya right. As I said, they are on crack. The idea of endangering (well it can't be done but whatever) PA's only black congressperson is itself very curious - and probably illegal.

[minionofmidas]

There is plenty of interesting gossip in this discussion, much of it different from speculation we've made before.

http://www.politicspa.com/exclusive-pa%E2%80%99s-gop-congessional-delegation-coming-to-harrisburg-to-discuss-redistricting-scenarios/22138/

Critz is protected because neighboring Republicans don't want more Dem voters... but Altmire's district could be made more Republican without being dismantled. (So how do they account for lost population in the west?)

Merging Schwartz and Fattah is discussed. Maybe this is what KP was alluding to?

No Republican votes wasted on shoring up Barletta. He sinks or swims on his own.  

Per reading the article, it doesn't make the slightest sense to me, and the numbers don't work. They must be on crack. And how do you make Critz safe, even if you wanted to? They must be on crack, or the reported is being fed a line of disinformation. And combine Fattah and Swartz, while protecting all the Philly area Pubbies?  Ya right. As I said, they are on crack. The idea of endangering (well it can't be done but whatever) PA's only black congressperson is itself very curious - and probably illegal.

They're Pennsylvania Republicans. Of course they are on crack. What did you think?

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Sacrifice four Republican congressman, if not more, just to fail at getting rid of Schwartz? And why get rid of Schwartz? She is a better person to face statewide then Altmire or Critz.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Schwartz is 62; she won't have another crack at a Senate seat until she's 68. I guess she could run for Governor in 2014, but she doesn't seem interested in that. There's no point in trying to get rid of her when they could make her district a sink for suburban Democratic votes.

[Linus Van Pelt]

And how do you make Critz safe, even if you wanted to?

It doesn't say they want to make Critz safe, only that they're not really going after him and thinking of putting Altmire's Dem voters into either Doyle's or his district. Doyle would be the more geographically natural choice, but playing around on the app you can create an even weirder PA-12 that drops non-river-valley Greene and Fayette and gets another tentacle up to New Castle, and it's about 49-49 like now while getting rid of Altmire.

I don't think it's crazy for the GOP to be cautious and not go after both Altmire and Critz. For Pittsburgh suburbia+rural ex-coal & steel to be a safe seat you have to rely on the continuation of the current situation where class politics are simultaneously important enough that Pittsburgh suburbia hasn't gone the way of Philly suburbia but still unimportant enough that ex-coal & steel is at historically low levels for the Dems. A delicate balance.

As far as your actual quoted question goes, it would be pretty easy to bring Critz up the Monongohela to places like Clairton, Braddock and eastern Pittsburgh and split the difference with Doyle at about D+9, but this is obviously purely hypothetical with the Dems not in control.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

How can they eliminate another Philly seat? The state is only losing one seat and the weakest in population is out west. They already eliminated a Philly seat last time and the state doesn't have that much population distribution. If the goal is to just remove the suburban parts and just result in two seats almost wholely in Philly, then they're displacing some very heavily Democratic parts of lower Montco that have to go to some Republican's seat and won't make them happy.

[krazen1211]

Per reading the article, it doesn't make the slightest sense to me, and the numbers don't work. They must be on crack. And how do you make Critz safe, even if you wanted to? They must be on crack, or the reporter is being fed a line of disinformation. And combine Fattah and Swartz, while protecting all the Philly area Pubbies?  Ya right. As I said, they are on crack. The idea of endangering (well it can't be done but whatever) PA's only black congressperson is itself very curious - and probably illegal.

I think someone is spreading fud for their own amusement.

[Torie]

And how do you make Critz safe, even if you wanted to?

It doesn't say they want to make Critz safe, only that they're not really going after him and thinking of putting Altmire's Dem voters into either Doyle's or his district. Doyle would be the more geographically natural choice, but playing around on the app you can create an even weirder PA-12 that drops non-river-valley Greene and Fayette and gets another tentacle up to New Castle, and it's about 49-49 like now while getting rid of Altmire.

I don't think it's crazy for the GOP to be cautious and not go after both Altmire and Critz. For Pittsburgh suburbia+rural ex-coal & steel to be a safe seat you have to rely on the continuation of the current situation where class politics are simultaneously important enough that Pittsburgh suburbia hasn't gone the way of Philly suburbia but still unimportant enough that ex-coal & steel is at historically low levels for the Dems. A delicate balance.

As far as your actual quoted question goes, it would be pretty easy to bring Critz up the Monongohela to places like Clairton, Braddock and eastern Pittsburgh and split the difference with Doyle at about D+9, but this is obviously purely hypothetical with the Dems not in control.

Having actually drawn the map, given the population shifts, Critz is gone period (it lost population big time and is surrounded by uber GOP territory, and Altmire already has a heavily GOP district. I put all the Dems I could into the Doyle district, reaching about 100 miles in one instance up a river picking up Democrats living in little old houses on the rivers next to cold steel mills. There really are not very many Democratic precincts left to pack into PA-14. Altmire has a few marginal precincts, but the rest are GOP to varying proportions. And by the way if Critz is kept in some alternative universe, what happens to Shuster?  I mean, basically 3/4 of a CD was lost in West PA. Somebody has to go. If not Critz, who?

In short, if you actually do the map, you then know just how nonsensical this all is. The one thing that caught my eye, was leaving Barletta with a pretty heavily blue collar and Dem white CD, suggesting that Holden in PA-17 would still have a pretty GOP district, which makes some sense, but Holden won't be beat, so it will just keep him a blue dog, and probably flip to the GOP if he gets another job someday. I will play with an alternative map doing that. It is not what I would do, but it is a reasonable alternative. None of the rest is reasonable - at all.

[Torie]

Well psephology fans, here is a redraw, designed to screw Barletta in PA-11 and make Holden's life in PA-17 more difficult, which also substantially affects PA-15. It uses non final population numbers, but the basic outline should hold even with some population adjustments, which should be pretty minor, since the county splits involving these three CD's are rather limited vis a vis the population subject to being moved from one CD to another.

First, the map is even more butt ugly than my gerrymander, which I consider far more efficient. Second, unfortunately, by screwing Barletta, one also hurts Dent in PA-15, because PA-17 in my draw picked up a bunch of heavily Dem precincts in both PA-11 and 15, and for PA-17 to get to the Dem precincts in PA-15 it needs to go through PA-11, and so both CD's must take their Dem precincts back. So both PA-15 and PA-11 are now about 54% Obama (i.e. marginal, but safe enough probably for Dent and Barletta (but only perhaps in the latter case, if Barletta's anti illegals thing has legs), while PA-17 becomes 53% McCain, a couple of points more Pubbie than the old PA-17.  With Holden having so much new GOP territory, and losing some of his heavily GOP precincts in Schuylkill to PA-15, he might have a tough time, and his CD will go Pubbie probably if he retires).

So maybe the GOP picks up another seat (PA-17), but it will be at the expense of making two new marginal seats that were pretty safe GOP in my map, while whether or not Holden goes down, becomes a 50-50 proposition perhaps. It may be a pretty good short term bet, but may prove costly in the longer run. It all depends on your time horizon, and who retires when, and whether or not somewhat lower SES  Anglos (particularly Catholic ones outside Appalachia) remain longer term estranged from the Dems. I would not do it, but yes, it might be done.

The key may be Dent. He loses a lot of his old territory in my plan, and he might prefer more familiar ground, which he has proved more than capable of holding. His CD becomes a little more than a point more GOP than his existing CD in any event, while PA-11 becomes about 4 points more GOP from the map currently in place (PA-10 picking up those Dem precincts, and PA-11 needing quite a bit of more territory, was what gave it its still rather substantial GOP shove - an option not nearly as available for PA-15, since it is more trapped by geography).

So we give back to PA-11 and PA-15 their old territory, and then with the need for more population (with PA-11 losing a few heavily Dem precincts to PA-10, which loss I keep in place), they move west, with PA-15 in particular cherry picking the most heavily GOP precincts along north and south of the Schuylkill-Berks County line. PA-11 sort of does the same, but is forced to go to the northern edges of the available territory, but that area is all quite heavily GOP anyway.

Would anyone pick this alternative for the GOP who wanted what was best for them, in lieu of my map version on this forum?  If so, sound up, and explain why. Thanks.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

No one is specifically saying to screw Barletta, just that the Republicans are saying he's not worth trying to shore up. Though adding one of the cities from his district to Holden's seat is an idea that I suppose could be tried.

[Torie]

No one is specifically saying to screw Barletta, just that the Republicans are saying he's not worth trying to shore up. Though adding one of the cities from his district to Holden's seat is an idea that I suppose could be tried.

"Not shoring up" = "screw" in Toriespeak here. It's shorter. Anyway, it turned out that the swiving he got was not so bad. He's a lucky boy that so many folks in his neck of the woods are getting the hell out of Dodge, forcing the CD into the uber GOP parts of "The T."  Scranton/Wilkes Barre just isn't where it's at these days.

[Linus Van Pelt]

Having actually drawn the map, given the population shifts, Critz is gone period (it lost population big time and is surrounded by uber GOP territory, and Altmire already has a heavily GOP district. I put all the Dems I could into the Doyle district, reaching about 100 miles in one instance up a river picking up Democrats living in little old houses on the rivers next to cold steel mills. There really are not very many Democratic precincts left to pack into PA-14. Altmire has a few marginal precincts, but the rest are GOP to varying proportions. And by the way if Critz is kept in some alternative universe, what happens to Shuster?  I mean, basically 3/4 of a CD was lost in West PA. Somebody has to go. If not Critz, who?

In short, if you actually do the map, you then know just how nonsensical this all is.

I don't follow you. Of course the exact numbers will change when the PA census comes out, but as seen below, on Dave's "new population estimates" I can get a very safe 2-2 southwest, with Doyle at 63 Obama, Critz at 56 Obama, Murphy at 57 McCain, Shuster at 60 McCain, and Altmire gone. I agree, just to be clear, that it would be extremely risk-averse on the part of the Republicans, and I wouldn't do it, if I were them. But if Shuster and Murphy decide their priority is just job security even in the event of Meg Whitman vs. Sherrod Brown 2016, and sucks to the team numbers, they might want it.

[Torie]

Oh I see. Sure, you could pump up the Pubbie CD's in Western PA to astronomical levels, get rid of a GOP CD that a very moderate Dem holds, and then give Critz per the very inefficient PA-14 gerry, some heavily Dem precincts that actually belong in PA-14. 

Yes, it can be done, but it's insane from any point of view which is interested in pushing public policy towards a GOP point of view. You get rid of a smarter and more moderate Dem, for a much dumber and somewhat less moderate Dem, tied to the hip to the unions, unlike Altmire. And the Critz CD become basically a real Dem CD, pushing Critz probably into mainstream Dem territory, as opposed to a GOP CD held by a very competent and moderate Dem, who knows he is walking on eggshells, and can be useful to add bi-partisan coloration to things.

If the map is remotely like this, in short, I will vomit. Thanks for sharing! 

[minionofmidas]

I would not be surprised if the map were somewhat like this except with Altmire's immediate neighborhood somehow included in Critz' CD. Not saying it's the most likely option, but it would appeal to a certain type of R mapdrawer.

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

I don't follow you. Of course the exact numbers will change when the PA census comes out, but as seen below, on Dave's "new population estimates" I can get a very safe 2-2 southwest, with Doyle at 63 Obama, Critz at 56 Obama, Murphy at 57 McCain, Shuster at 60 McCain, and Altmire gone...

...and Mike Kelly (R, PA-3) drawn into Murphy's district. He lives in Butler.

[krazen1211]

I would not be surprised if the map were somewhat like this except with Altmire's immediate neighborhood somehow included in Critz' CD. Not saying it's the most likely option, but it would appeal to a certain type of R mapdrawer.

Doyle is about 120k below in population, and Critz is another 90k below. Critz should be done for good.

[Torie]

Yes, and  PA-03 without Butler becomes a marginal to lean Dem CD. That is another little problem with the mappie.

[Linus Van Pelt]

Yeah, I didn't check Kelly's residence - but the north isn't really the important part of this map. You could just rotate the Republicans five minutes counterclockwise, so to speak: PA-4 loses Butler and gains a bit of territory from PA-9, which in turn compensates by going further east into the southern T, which is where it goes now anyway.

[krazen1211]

Here comes the real PA plan, not the FUD.

http://www.politicspa.com/redistricting-watch-dc-republicans-working-toward-consensus/22604/

The most striking feature of Republicans’ tentative plans is the change to Tim Holden’s 17th Congressional district. Currently, the 17th covers all of Holden’s home county of Schuylkill County, as well as Dauphin and Lebanon. The district comprises parts of Perry and Berks counties as well.

Republicans are talking about stretching his district up to the Democratic stronghold of Scranton, so as to make freshman Rep. Lou Barletta’s district far more favorable to the GOP. This idea has really caught on in the past two weeks, and appears more likely every day.

The seat targeted for dissolution would be that of Rep. Mark Crtiz. The GOP is looking at ways to attach Critz’s Democratic base in Johnstown to the district of Rep. Jason Altmire, whose district would itself lose Democrats to the Pittsburgh-based district of Rep. Mike Doyle.

That would set up a Democratic primary between Altmire and Critz.

Republicans emphasize that they’ll be conservative this time. They’ll be drawing out a Democratic seat for sure, but they won’t attempt to make every Democratic seat more competitive as they did in 2001. They are trying to protect their gains of 2010.

The main question, how competitive will the GOP the merged Altmire/Critz district, will likely fall to Rep. Bill Shuster. If he is willing to take traditionally Democratic counties of Fayette and Green, the the new seat will be much more achievable for Republicans. If however Shuster wants to maintain his lopsided party registration advantage, Republicans may cede the Altmire/Critz district to Democrats.

[dpmapper]

If they're going to give Holden a safe seat, I'd give him Reading+Scranton rather than Harrisburg+Scranton.  Harrisburg is easier to swamp with mid-state GOP votes (Platts's or Shuster's district) than Reading is; this would allow Pitts's district to soak up more Dem towns in Chester County and Gerlach's to take some Dem areas in DelCo/MontCo from Meehan. 

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Surprisingly meek redistricting plan. Shores up Gerlach and Barletta, but doesn't do much to help the other incumbents. And Barletta would be vulnerable if Chris Carney decided to run again, since he's been put into PA-11.

[Dgov]

Surprisingly meek redistricting plan. Shores up Gerlach and Barletta, but doesn't do much to help the other incumbents. And Barletta would be vulnerable if Chris Carney decided to run again, since he's been put into PA-11.

Fairly Clean too.  I mean, it obviously has partisan leanings to it, particularly the 17th and SEPA, but nothing really egregious like the current map.  You could probably make a case for 'community of interest" for every district but the 17th (not a good one mind you).