Gallup Tracking Poll Thread [Obama vs McCain]

[Brittain33]

The race is rock solid at McCain + 2.  I don't think anyone could deny that.

I was confused by posts like this for a while, because I thought "rock solid" meant that this was his solid lead and it couldn't change. No one seems to think that, though; you're saying it's "rock solid" in the sense that all the polls are converging on this and it looks to be accurate. Is that correct?

[Brittain33]

J.J.'s first rule is stupid.

he has a God-complex.  it can be fun to watch him spew his garbage if you take the right attitude about it.

Even that gets tedious after a while, though.

[Brittain33]

Tuesday -  September 16, 2008:

McCain  - 47% (nc)
Obama  - 46% (+1)

[Brittain33]

So Obama gained one in Rasmussen and Gallup... my question is... how pro-Obama were today's samples in each tracking poll? +1 Obama?

I was wondering that myself since we seem to have lost the thread of estimates. Reading back through this thread, someone said that Friday's sample, which dropped off, must have been reasonably good for McCain--like M +4. Which means McCain could have been polling consistently +1 since then to explain both the +2s afterward and the change today. I know that is not good math, though.

[Brittain33]

Wednesday -  September 16, 2008:

Obama - 47% (+1)
McCain - 45% (-2)

[Brittain33]

LOL. But how will JJ spin this one?

"In what respect, Charlie?" buys him a few seconds.

[Brittain33]

Wow. Is this election over?

We haven't seen the "Whitey" tape yet...

[Brittain33]

This pretty much rules out the number series someone posted above which were in conflict with Gallup's write-up of a good Thursday sample... that would require an O +11% sample last night while Rasmussen was finding McCain +1.5%. 

[Brittain33]

Sunday, September 21, 2008

Obama - 49% (-1)
McCain - 45% (+1)

[Brittain33]

Sunday, September 21, 2008

Obama - 49% (-1)
McCain - 44% (+1)

It's 49-45. 

Thanks. I can't help it, I have the audacity of hope. Revised the original.

[Brittain33]

Monday, September 22, 2008
Obama - 48% (-1)
McCain - 44% (-1)

[Brittain33]

Tuesday, September 23, 2008
Obama - 47% (-1)
McCain - 44% (nc)

Not enjoying this week so much.

[Brittain33]

Tuesday, September 23, 2008
Obama - 47% (-1)
McCain - 44% (nc)

Not enjoying this week so much.

http://d.yimg.com/us.yimg.com/p/rids/20080915/i/r288450244.jpg?x=400&y=264&q=85&sig=.4wOq4XrAK2zyT3V0vrsuw--

LOL.

[Brittain33]

Wednesday, September 24, 2008
Obama - 47% (nc)
McCain - 44% (nc)

If Rowan's numbers are correct, which is undeterminable, Obama had a very good night last night as he did with Rasmussen.

[Brittain33]

Wednesday, September 24, 2008
Obama - 47% (nc)
McCain - 44% (nc)

If Rowan's numbers are correct, which is undeterminable, Obama had a very good night last night as he did with Rasmussen.

Actually no.  The last number he posted above would have dropped off yesterday.  Of course, that assumes that the numbers are, in any way, correct.

I don't see how this disagrees with what I posted... for the numbers to stay constant at 47-44, last night would have to have been equivalent to the night which dropped off, which was a very good night.

[Brittain33]

No, that night dropped off in yesterday's numbers, when Obama went down a point, not today's. The numbers that dropped off today were actually around a tie.

Aha. Thanks.

[Brittain33]

Thursday, September 25, 2008
Obama - 46% (-1)
McCain - 46% (+2)

No joke.

[Brittain33]

Who exactly was the last candidate to lose with a 3-7% lead 1 month before the election ?

Gore, I think.

Remembering Gallup's Wacky 2000 Tracking Poll:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/alan-abramowitz/remembering-gallups-wacky_b_117594.html

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[Brittain33]

Multiple Kossacks are saying a Gallup guy was on tv reporting that today's poll will show Obama +8. It's unclear if it's the tracking poll or the regular Gallup poll, but would they release a regular poll on a Sunday?

[Brittain33]

Many of us now regard the media as nothing more than political terrorists. They are vile scum, liars of the worst order.

You must have some polls showing widespread public support for the media before 2008, only to have it go downhill because of its coverage this year.

I'll take your word for it that Republicans approved on the media up until this moment, and only now got angry.

[Brittain33]

Saturday, October 4th

Obama: 50 (+1)
Mccain: 42 (nc)

[Brittain33]

Tightening my ass...

TMI.

[Brittain33]

It is interesting that the traditional and expanded LV models are now merging. Is that by accident or design, as Gallup struggles to make a prediction on the actual turnout model as we get close to the wire?

For some reason, the "traditional" turnout model was coming up with more likely voters than the "expanded" turnout model for a long time. That has now reversed and may help to explain the convergence.

How does an expanded model contract the number of voters?  That concept is just a bit too abstract for me. 

Perhaps the young make up a larger share of the electorate, but vote at lower rates than the older people whose share of the electorate gets squeezed.