New Tradesports rankings

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Hilarious and well deserved.

It kind of pisses me off though. Every time a GOP candidate proves to be a sure loser, they collapse in the primary. Happened to McCain and is now happening to Thompson.

Well we can still hope for Romney.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Thompson's fall in the primary:



Thompson's fall in the winning individual:

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I almost feel sorry for the people who bid on Thompson back in March or April, thought they had hit the jackpot, and are now watching him fall back to the original values. On the other hand the people who wisely unloaded on him in July and August are laughing all the way to the bank.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

If Ron Paul gets to 10 on this thing, I may just have to actually get involved.

You might have some difficulty thanks to fascist Bill Frist, although according to Mr. Moderate there haven't been any problems. I've been considering doing the same as well.

The only problem with shorting Paul is that for example you have to have $92 frozen just so you can make $8 next August. Although on the other hand, that's still a better rate of return than a savings account or CD, so if anyone has some spare cash laying around...

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

In addition to the idiots bidding on Rice and Gingrich, I wonder why anyone would short them. It's a sure thing, yes, but you're still putting around $9.90 on hold for 9 months in order to make $.10 on that later. Why not just put that money in a savings account or CD? Or better yet, make more money on a sure thing and short Paul.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Shorting is just selling shares of a contract without owning them, and thus "owning" negative numbers of that contract. In fact InTrade is zerosum, for every share owned someone must own a negative share, because what a share really is is a bet between two people on whether or not that happens.

So for example if I sold Paul shares at 8.0 without owning anything, what  I've really done is made a bet with some Paul fanboy, where I bet $9.20 times X amount of shares traded that Paul will not win, while he's bet $.80 times the amount of shares that he would. We'd both have the amount bed in our accounts frozen. Once the GOP nominee was chosen, I'd then have all my money unfrozen and earn an extra $.80 for every share I was betting against (minus a small handling fee InTrade takes on every transaction) while the Paul fanboy's account would lose all his money bet on it. Meanwhile if hell froze over and Paul somehow won the nomination, I'd lose all the frozen money in my account, while the Paul fanboy would have his money unfrozen plus gain $9.20 for every share he owned.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

My money apparently got deposited back before the Frist bill passed.  I think you can still get money to a Tradesports account, but you have to go through a lot of hoops to do it.  Paying by money order, for example.

That's not that difficult or expensive. The international shipping would be a bit of a pain, but you're just sending an envelope, not a huge packge.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Shorting is just selling shares of a contract without owning them, and thus "owning" negative numbers of that contract. In fact InTrade is zerosum, for every share owned someone must own a negative share, because what a share really is is a bet between two people on whether or not that happens.

So for example if I sold Paul shares at 8.0 without owning anything, what  I've really done is made a bet with some Paul fanboy, where I bet $9.20 times X amount of shares traded that Paul will not win, while he's bet $.80 times the amount of shares that he would. We'd both have the amount bed in our accounts frozen. Once the GOP nominee was chosen, I'd then have all my money unfrozen and earn an extra $.80 for every share I was betting against (minus a small handling fee InTrade takes on every transaction) while the Paul fanboy's account would lose all his money bet on it. Meanwhile if hell froze over and Paul somehow won the nomination, I'd lose all the frozen money in my account, while the Paul fanboy would have his money unfrozen plus gain $9.20 for every share he owned.

So, you short if you're certain (or nearly so) that an event won't happen?

Not necessarily. You just necessarily think the odds of it happening are low enough that the risk is worth it, like any other bet. If something is trading at 80.0 and you think the odds of it happening are only about 50/50, one might still bet against it just because of the high possibility of gain.

What Verily said is also correct. The same applies to also buying shares on things you are sure won't happen. Buying Paul 4 months ago would've been a good investment (although I doubt anyone could've predicted how high some crazies could drive up his numbers)

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The main reason I haven't started an InTrade account is you have to put A LOT of money in for it to be worth it.

Minimum is $100. That buys 10 shares, but really 9 due to the small fee InTrade takes. So I put in a little more than $100, and use it all to short Paul. That wins me...about $7.50. And when you take out the cost of a money order, international shipping, and InTrade fees, I probably don't even break even.

So $200? Then I make about $7 at the end. I'm going to have to wait and get more cash before trying this.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

So, if I was 100% sure Mitt Romney wouldn't be the nominee, I would short him now, therefore "betting" those with his stock that he wouldn't win?

Basically yeah.

Some explain the legal situation regarding funding the account as well.

Frist put some fascist language in the Safe Ports Bill last year banning bank transactions to online gambling sites, so in theory you can't fund an account directly anymore through credit/debit cards (although my brother, an avid online gambler, hasn't had much problems continuing gambling, so it's possible many banks have found a loophole or are just using plausible deniability). You can still fund an account through mailing a check or international money order or having the money wired, but this of course is more inconvenient and expensive.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The Paul bubble is starting to wind down. Are some fanboys finally waking up out of their delusion?

Actually what's more likely is some speculators who bought some stock when the bubble started are starting to unload it and reap the profits.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Even by using the fallacious logic of simply drawing a trendline, Romney still wins Iowa based on that. Huckabee fans must be expecting a bigger surge.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

At that price it's a steal. If I had an account I'd sure bid on it.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

What the hell has happened to give Giuliani a boost?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

This latest scandal is giving Giuliani a real hit. He's lost 3 points so far today.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Al Gore

Because there was always such a strong possibility of him being the nominee. The fact that he's still above 2 even is ridiculous.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Paul 2.6
Gore 1.5
Thompson 1.2

LOL

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Not necessarily. It's just different people betting. No doubt the individual states is far lower volume, so lots of people are betting on who to win the nomination but not the individual primaries.

LOL@Paul gaining again.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Too many people won't check out the polls and just keep buying what the media says, that Giuliani is the frontrunner.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

For some sure money on InTrade, bet on Hillary to win Michigan and Florida. She's still trading in the 80s when her chances are basically 100%. For some reason there's still people trading Obama in both states, especially Florida (no crazier than trading Gore to win the nomination I suppose). Maybe people on bidding on Obama's current momentum and don't know he won't be on the ballot in either.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

McCain has to peak somewhere. If I had an account I'd be shorting him now, although I'd be mostly shorting Giuliani.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Giuliani was always overvalued. The thought of those hacks who bid on him and kept him so high losing their money brings a smile to my face.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

McCain being ahead of Huckabee is almost as amusing as Paul's numbers. At least there's an explanation for Paul's numbers (legions of delusional cult-like fanboys), I don't see any explanation for that.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

McCain's route to the nomination is simple: clean up on Super Duper Tuesday.  This only works if Giuliani is absolutely and totally trashed in the primaries leading up to it.

And if he has any money other than spare change under his couch, which he currently doesn't.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

McCain > Romney in NH market.

Despite not leading in NH in a single poll.