New Tradesports rankings

[Ebowed]

It was pretty much a shot at Dennis.

What's the point of bashing Dennis Kucinich?

[Speed of Sound]

It was pretty much a shot at Dennis.

What's the point of bashing Dennis Kucinich?

Nothing, it was just funny.

[Verily]

Paul eases back out, McCain loses. Giuliani and Thompson are essentially tied.

Giuliani 25.1
Thompson 25.0
Romney 23.0
McCain 17.0
Gingrich 2.1
Paul 2.1
Huckabee 2.0
Others <1.0


Obama and Edwards slide, no one gains.

Clinton 51.2
Obama 27.4
Gore 10.5
Edwards 6.9
Richardson 2.3
Others <1.0


Michael Bloomberg to run as Independent 27.0
(IMO, that should be at 74.9: the inverse of Giuliani's odds.)

[Mr. Morden]

Michael Bloomberg to run as Independent 27.0
(IMO, that should be at 74.9: the inverse of Giuliani's odds.)

74.9%?  You honestly think that if Giuliani doesn't get the GOP nomination, Bloomberg is 100% guaranteed to run?  That there's no chance that he decides that he doesn't want to be president, or that he decides that an independent candidacy would be such a longshot that he doesn't want to put himself through such a campaign, and flush $1 billion down the drain?

[CARLHAYDEN]

It seems to me that the "bid" is more important than the "ask" price on Intrade.


The current "bid" in the Republican race is:

Thompson     24.4
Guiliani          24.1
Romney         23.0
McCain          17.1

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I think he meant that the only Democrat who is (or should be) scared of Thompson is Dennis Kucinich.  However, my interpretation might be as wrong as yours.

ok, your interpretation makes more sense than mine...though I think both of you are seriously underestimating Fred.

I'm not afraid of a pro-war southern conservative who has closely aligned himself with Bush.

[Saxwsylvania]

I think Democrats are definitely afraid of Fred Thompson.  They try to comfort themselves by saying "he's a pro-war southern conservative . . . can't win."  But in the back of their minds they know that he can win, and it gives them the creeps to think that the American people might put a Bush clone back in the White House in 2008.

[Reaganfan]

I think Democrats are definitely afraid of Fred Thompson.  They try to comfort themselves by saying "he's a pro-war southern conservative . . . can't win."  But in the back of their minds they know that he can win, and it gives them the creeps to think that the American people might put a Bush clone back in the White House in 2008.

Can you imagine the opening of the Thompson-Clinton debates? Hillary's 5'6 and Thompson is 6'6. Oh my lord...he would have to bend down to shake her hand.

[Mr. Morden]

While it's low volume, Thompson has also taken the lead in the Iowa caucus market.  Current Intrade Iowa odds on the GOP side:

F. Thompson 32.0
Romney 30.0
Giuliani 15.0
McCain 14.5

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Pre-debate update.
Since the last update:

On the Democratic side, Obama and Richardson go down, no corresponding gains.

On the Republican side, Giuliani goes down, and is now tied for 1st place with Thompson. Thompson had not been in 1st place before.  Huckabee loses, Paul gains.

Democrats
Clinton 51.1
Obama 27.5
Gore 10.4
Edwards 6.5
Richardson 2.3
Biden 0.5
Clark 0.5
Dodd 0.2
Kerry 0.1

Republicans
Giuliani 25.0
Thompson 25.0
Romney 23.0
McCain 17.9
Gingrich 2.5
Paul 2.3
Huckabee 2.0
Rice 0.8
Brownback 0.5
Cheney 0.4
Bloomberg 0.4
J. Bush 0.4
Hagel 0.4
T. Thompson 0.3
Tancredo 0.2
Hunter 0.1
Powell 0.1

[Mr. Morden]

So it's now:

Clinton 51.9
Obama 27.2
Gore 10.2
Edwards 7.0

So, compared to before the debate, Clinton and Edwards have gained, and Obama and Gore slipped slightly.

Also, on the GOP side, while McCain has been in 4th place for the last week or so, he's now also slipped to 4th place among Republicans in the "winning individual" market, with Romney now surpassing him.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Post Democratic debate:
Obama falls a fair amount.  Edwards gains.


Pre Republican debate:
Giuliani falls, causing Thompson to be an untied 1st place. This is amazing, tommorrow's debate will have 10 candidates, and the top guy won't even be there. Other Republicans drop, except for Paul, who surges. My advice: short-sell Paul.

Democrats
Clinton 51.0
Obama 25.1
Gore 10.7
Edwards 7.2
Richardson 2.3
Biden 0.6
Clark 0.5
Dodd 0.2
Kerry 0.1

Republicans
Thompson 24.9
Giuliani 24.4
Romney 22.0
McCain 17.0
Paul 2.9
Gingrich 2.1
Huckabee 2.0
Rice 0.9
Brownback 0.5
Cheney 0.4
Bloomberg 0.4
J. Bush 0.4
Hagel 0.4
T. Thompson 0.3
Tancredo 0.2
Hunter 0.1
Powell 0.1

[MODU]

Interesting that Powell is on the list, but Gilmore isn't.

[SPC]

Interesting that Powell is on the list, but Gilmore isn't.

Gilmore's as serious a candidate as John Cox.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Obama rebounds.

The guy who was too chicken to be in the Republican debate gains the most. McCain might as well get in a tank, because there's a lot of tank in his campaign. Paul isn't quite as overrated any more.

Democrats
Clinton 50.8
Obama 27.6
Gore 10.2
Edwards 7.0
Richardson 2.3
Biden 0.5
Clark 0.5
Dodd 0.2
Kerry 0.1

Republicans
Thompson 26.0
Giuliani 24.4
Romney 22.1
McCain 15.6
Paul 2.4
Gingrich 2.4
Huckabee 2.0
Rice 0.9
Hagel 0.8
Brownback 0.5
Cheney 0.5
J. Bush 0.5
Bloomberg 0.4
T. Thompson 0.3
Tancredo 0.2
Powell 0.2
Hunter 0.1

[agcatter]

Paul?  What are those idiots thinking? All the legit Pepublican contenders are going to be assasinated by terrorists?  LOL  It would take a lot more than that even.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Paul?  What are those idiots thinking? All the legit Pepublican contenders are going to be assasinated by terrorists?  LOL  It would take a lot more than that even.

Barring a full-fledge attack on the US by Israel, Paul doesn't stand a chance

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I bet Edwards' surge at the expense of Obama isn't because of the debate, but his showing in Iowa. A very strong showing in Iowa and Edwards could replace Obama as the "Not Hillary" candidate.

[Reaganfan]

Obama rebounds.

The guy who was too chicken to be in the Republican debate gains the most. McCain might as well get in a tank, because there's a lot of tank in his campaign. Paul isn't quite as overrated any more.

Many agree that McCain actually won last night's debate.

[Verily]

Obama rebounds.

The guy who was too chicken to be in the Republican debate gains the most. McCain might as well get in a tank, because there's a lot of tank in his campaign. Paul isn't quite as overrated any more.

Many agree that McCain actually won last night's debate.

You only count as one person.

[Reaganfan]

Obama rebounds.

The guy who was too chicken to be in the Republican debate gains the most. McCain might as well get in a tank, because there's a lot of tank in his campaign. Paul isn't quite as overrated any more.

Many agree that McCain actually won last night's debate.

You only count as one person.

http://www.boston.com/news/nation/articles/2007/06/06/by_standing_alone_mccain_finds_a_chance_to_stand_out/
http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2007/06/06/215592.aspx

[Eraserhead]

Obama rebounds.

The guy who was too chicken to be in the Republican debate gains the most. McCain might as well get in a tank, because there's a lot of tank in his campaign. Paul isn't quite as overrated any more.

Many agree that McCain actually won last night's debate.

You only count as one person.

http://www.boston.com/news/nation/articles/2007/06/06/by_standing_alone_mccain_finds_a_chance_to_stand_out/
http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2007/06/06/215592.aspx

I thought McCain won the debate too but I'm a Democrat. That may be a bad sign for him.

[Alcon]

McCain's touch dial numbers did suck in areas I liked...which explains why I'm not a Republican or conservative independent.

He may have gotten pounded.

But it's only one debate.

[CARLHAYDEN]

McCain's touch dial numbers did suck in areas I liked...which explains why I'm not a Republican or conservative independent.

He may have gotten pounded.

But it's only one debate.

You're right.

There are so many more opportunities for McCain to get pounded.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Obama surges to the highest he's been in a while. Edwards drops.

On the Republican side, the candidates in 5th-7th place all drop, leaving only the 4 top tier candidates at or above 2.0.

Democrats
Clinton 50.6
Obama 30.8
Gore 10.4
Edwards 6.0
Richardson 2.2
Biden 0.5
Clark 0.5
Dodd 0.2
Kerry 0.1

Republicans
Thompson 26.3
Giuliani 23.8
Romney 22.0
McCain 15.6
Paul 1.9
Huckabee 1.7
Gingrich 1.6
Rice 0.9
Hagel 0.8
Brownback 0.5
Cheney 0.5
J. Bush 0.5
Bloomberg 0.4
T. Thompson 0.3
Tancredo 0.2
Powell 0.2
Hunter 0.1