New Tradesports rankings

[Mr. Morden]

Not all of the movement in Intrade is because of specific events like endorsements.  Some of it is just due to the evolving conventional wisdom.  For example, people initially seemed to think that Huckabee's surge in Iowa might help Giuliani because it hurts Romney.  But now, you rarely hear people making that case, and Giuliani is now drifting down on Intrade.

More Obama surge:

Clinton 57.0
Obama 36.0
Edwards 4.6

More Giuliani decline:

Giuliani 34.8
Romney 24.4
Huckabee 16.2
McCain 10.0

Winning individual:

Clinton 41.4
Obama 18.4
Giuliani 14.8
Romney 8.1
Huckabee 5.8

[Mr. Morden]

The Clinton-Obama gap is closing incredibly fast.  The latest:

Clinton 55.4
Obama 39.0

[Verily]

Some other interesting stuff...

Democratic VP
Bayh 16.9
Obama 15.7
Clark 15.0
Gore 14.8
Richardson 14.6
Edwards 5.7
Webb 5.6
Strickland 5.0
Vilsack 4.0
Biden 2.7
Dodd 1.3
Clinton 1.2
Warner 1.2
Kerrey 0.1
Daschle 0.1
[Field 13.4]


Some of those are pretty far off. Warner will obviously not be VP because he's running for Senate. After all of her attacking Obama, Clinton really couldn't choose him as VP, and no one in their right mind would pick Clark for VP. Clinton obviously wouldn't go for VP, and nor would Gore, who is ridiculously overvalued here.

Republican VP
Huckabee 28.9
Pawlenty 10.1
Romney 8.6
Thompson (F) 7.6
Gingrich 6.5
Bush (J) 5.8
Rice 5.7
Steele 4.5
Giuliani 3.8
Graham 3.4
McCain 2.0
Hunter 1.2
Hutchison 1.0
Paul 0.1
[Field 25.2]

All I have to say is that "Field" is WAY undervalued.

[Mr. Morden]

Mr. Moderate should thank me.    Some time ago, I said that Hutchison was way undervalued in the VP market at just 0.3, and this prompted him to spend a few dollars on shares of Hutchison.  Now she's up to 1.0.....still pretty undervalued though.

[Mr. Morden]

The McCain boom-let is unreal.  Latest GOP nomination market numbers:

Giuliani 36.4
Romney 22.4
Huckabee 15.5
McCain 11.9

That's a remarkably narrow gap between Huckabee and McCain.

[jokerman]

What's wrong with Clark for VP?

[Erc]

The McCain boom-let is unreal.  Latest GOP nomination market numbers:

Giuliani 36.4
Romney 22.4
Huckabee 15.5
McCain 11.9

That's a remarkably narrow gap between Huckabee and McCain.

The only way McCain wins is if he wins NH...and are his chances really even that good at winning NH?

/continues to kick self for not buying McCain in September

[angus]

What's wrong with Clark for VP?

Clark's a nut.  Well, I guess that's not fair.  He's a distinguished military commander.  But he's a big fan of military interventionism, and that's what we don't need right now.  Also, he nearly started World War Three back in the 90s when he ordered blocking of that Kosovo airport.   Back when he was Supreme Allied Commaner of European forces and was too arrogant to accept help from Russian forces.  Wanted to halt the Russians through military action.  Sheer arrogance.  Luckily his subordinate, british General Michael Jackson, saw what was coming and said, "Sir, I'm not starting the Third World War for you" and disobeyed his orders.  It isn't often that a British Three Star tells an American Four Star to bite his ass, but it's a good thing Jackson did.  Clinton promptly fired Clark, fortunately.  Actually, I guess it was the Defense secretary Cohen that fired him.  Anyway, Clark's a loose canon.  I think he was right about Viet Nam in his book about gradualism, and certainly he was a proficient instructor at West Point, and he may even be a good thinktank military theorist, but he's not fit to be president.

[Verily]

What's wrong with Clark for VP?

He's even worse than Biden and Richardson combined for putting his foot in his mouth.

[muon2]

The Boston Globe also endorsed McCain today.  I have no idea what it's readership is in New Hampshire is, though.  (Probably not especially high.)

Actually it's quite high. The southern counties of Hillsborough and Rockingham are the most populous in NH and include a lot of MA ex pats, many of whom work in MA or have other ties to the Bay State. Beyond that, the Globe acts as the regional paper for all of New England. It can be found on news stands and by subscription in the entire region from northern ME to coastal CT.

[jokerman]

What's wrong with Clark for VP?

Clark's a nut.

That's a fair statement, but I strongly respect the man.

[Mr. Morden]

More slow erosion for Giuliani and more gains for McCain:

Giuliani 34.4
Romney 22.6
Huckabee 16.7
McCain 13.0

I swear, at the rate this is going, we'll eventually have a 4-way tie between Giuliani, Romney, Huckabee, and McCain.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

McCain has to peak somewhere. If I had an account I'd be shorting him now, although I'd be mostly shorting Giuliani.

[Mr. Morden]

Wow, huge crash for Giuliani, with gains distributed fairly evenly among Romney, Huckabee, and McCain:

Giuliani 27.0
Romney 24.2
Huckabee 18.0
McCain 13.9

Romney may very well pass Giuliani in no time.  Giuliani was above 40 less than a week ago.

[Mr. Morden]

McCain passes Huckabee in winning individual:

Clinton 38.5
Obama 19.7
Giuliani 12.3
Romney 11.1
McCain 5.0
Huckabee 4.9

The "Edwards to drop out of the race by Dec. 31" share price has shot up to 10.0 in recent days, presumably because of the "love child" rumor.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Giuliani was always overvalued. The thought of those hacks who bid on him and kept him so high losing their money brings a smile to my face.

[Mr. Morden]

Giuliani's price in the markets for all the early primary states:

IA: 0.8
NH: 4.0
MI: 24.9
SC: 5.5
NV: 25.1
FL: 50.0 (way too high)

[Verily]

Romney and McCain SURGE, all at Giuliani's expense:

Giuliani 27.3
Romney 26.9
Huckabee 17.0
McCain: 15.0
Paul 8.0
Thompson 4.8

Giuliani hadn't been below 30 since July.

[Mr. Morden]

Intrade has opened new markets on the probability of candidates dropping out in January and February.  So far, volume is extremely light, but here are some preliminary numbers:

Will drop out by Jan. 31st:

Edwards 37.0
McCain 30.0
Thompson 20.0
Huckabee 15.0
Giuliani 10.0
Paul 9.8
Obama 5.0
Clinton 1.0
Romney 1.0

Will drop out by Feb. 29th:

Edwards 50.0
McCain 35.0
Huckabee 20.0
Paul 12.0
Obama 7.5
Thompson 7.5
Romney 2.0
Clinton 1.0
Giuliani 1.0

Obviously, there are some bizarre peculiarities (like how can the Jan. number be greater than the Feb. number for Giuliani and Thompson?) which will eventually sort themselves out with greater volume, but the starting Jan. #'s are mostly far too low...while the Feb. #'s are all absurdly low (except for Paul, since he'll likely stay in well past the point at which the nomination has already been decided).

[© tweed]

2008.GOP.NOM.BLOOMBERG is back on with a bid of 0.2, for whatever reason.

[Mr. Morden]

Wow, McCain surges past Huckabee into 3rd place:

Giuliani 28.1
Romney 24.6
McCain 18.3
Huckabee 14.6

[Verily]

Wow, McCain surges past Huckabee into 3rd place:

Giuliani 28.1
Romney 24.6
McCain 18.3
Huckabee 14.6

A fool and his money are soon parted...

[Reignman]

McCain's being overrated right now. No doubt about it.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

McCain's being overrated right now. No doubt about it.

Well, yeah, at this point.  A McCain jump was long overdue, but the market went overboard.  Newspaper editorials don't readily translate into votes.

[Reignman]

Indeed.

Bump.