Cuomo v. Teachout

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Cuomo is being hit hard by the media for the video where he completely blows Teachout off.

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You'd think there would have been some kind of public poll done by now.

We really don't even know for sure that Wu is doing better than Teachout (although I assume he is as well because of the robocalls, etc.).

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Cuomo/Hochul is spending a tremendous amount of money on air and have a very large GOTV operation while Teachout/Wu have spent virtually nothing I would be shocked to see either get more than 20% of the vote.

Get ready to be shocked in a big way.

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Cuomo is now explicitly attacking Wu at campaign events.

https://mobile.twitter.com/jonswaine/status/508688588318715905

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http://www.npr.org/2014/09/07/346455250/cuomo-gets-more-of-an-opponent-than-he-bargained-for

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What has been so odd about this race is that there are virtually no public polls showing Cuomo in danger of Teachout (or Hochul of Wu) yet my friends and I (especially my friends who are very much in the know either working for officials/unions etc) feel that there is something about this election that really puts Cuomo in a hard place. It's as if there's some sort of magical aura.

There haven't been any public polls at all.

But yeah, I know what you're talking about. It does feel like something strange could happen.

I have a lot of friends who are registered Democrats and everyone I've talked to is either voting for Teachout or not voting at all. I can't find any Cuomo voters. I guess most of them are at old folks homes.

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Teachout has done most of her campaigning in the city and has been mostly ignored by Upstate media (although a small newspaper in the Adirondacks endorsed her last week).

That's not completely true. She's been upstate quite a bit lately and has been getting a decent amount of coverage in my stomping grounds at least (Poughkeepsie, New Paltz, Woodstock - she was actually just interviewed on Radio Woodstock this morning, etc.).

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Teachout has done most of her campaigning in the city and has been mostly ignored by Upstate media (although a small newspaper in the Adirondacks endorsed her last week).

That's not completely true. She's been upstate quite a bit lately and has been getting a decent amount of coverage in my stomping grounds at least (Poughkeepsie, New Paltz, Woodstock - she was actually just interviewed on Radio Woodstock this morning, etc.).

My roots are showing because my first instinct was to laugh at calling any of those places 'Upstate.' But you raise a fair point about the Hudson Valley and the Catskills. Woodstock and New Paltz are the kind of places that I'd expect to lean toward a candidate like Teachout anyway, but these regions are the heart of anti-fracking sentiment in NY state (which contrasts with the Southern Tier counties west of Binghamton and Ithaca, where popular opinion is far more divided).

Heh - yeah, there is of course the endless great debate over whether those places should really be considered "upstate". I guess considering that I come from The Bronx originally, they'll always be "upstate" to me

But yeah, I think Teachout and Wu are going to perform very strongly in Ulster county.

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Apparently there is a robocall people are getting hit with tonight invoking President Clinton's name and his support for Cuomo/Hochul.

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Cuomo is on the attack again:

http://www.nystateofpolitics.com/2014/09/cuomo-no-lg-who-needs-on-the-job-training/?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

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Any early turnout reports? Polls opened at 6 AM in NYC and the surrronding counties. Polls don't open until 12 PM in the rest of the state.

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Cuomo will vote at 10:30 AM after originally saying he would vote at 5 PM. He's apparently trying to avoid anti-fracking protesters at his polling place.

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For what it's worth (perhaps not much):

September Surprise (@SeptSurprise) tweeted at 9:09am - 9 Sep 14:

#TeachoutWu is #KillingIt in exit polls on UWS of NYC (https://twitter.com/SeptSurprise/status/509327803717021696)

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WSJ actually finds a Cuomo-Wu voter:

http://online.wsj.com/articles/primary-day-for-cuomo-teachout-1410260335

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Hearing turnout is very low so far in Queens.

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I voted just before 9:30, I was the 2nd voter in my precinct (it could have even been entire polling place which has several precincts in one, but I believe it was for the precinct).

 I'm in South Farmingdale which is a fairly Republican portion of Nassau County.

How'd you vote (if you don't mind sharing)?

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NYT decides not to endorse.

Heh, old news. They did endorse Wu for Lt. Gov. though.

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Well, I'm off to work. I'll probably end up voting around 7 PM.

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Question

Could reports of low turnout be good for Teachout/Wu? I think there's obviously an enthusiasm gap in favor of Teachout/Wu. Does low turnout mean that unions didn't bring out members to endorse Cuomo, or does it mean that Teachout couldn't tap into liberals?

Hard to say for sure.

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I voted at 7:45 PM. I was #46 for the day but a black family came in right after me. I was very tempted to ask them who they were voting for but I of course didn't.

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I voted at 7:45 PM. I was #46 for the day but a black family came in right after me. I was very tempted to ask them who they were voting for but I of course didn't.

You do wonder who the blacks are supporting. Probably Cuomo. I guess we'll find out soon!

Yeah probably. I hope there's an exit poll.

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I think Beet actually made a pretty good point earlier when he basically said that this started to feel like a real race too late in the game. I think if Teachout had another couple months to build herself up this could have become very interesting.

As it is, I'll be happy if we can keep Cuomo under 65% and embarrass him a little.

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Close race so far. It's all tied up at 0-0-0.

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Westchester is usually something of a bellwether.

Not sure if that will apply to a race like this though. I would expect it to go pretty strongly for Cuomo.

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Teachout wins Hamilton county!