I'm scared of John Morgan, not Gwen Graham, tbh.
Seconding this. He's a total wild card at this point, and I think running as an outsider probably does more good than harm in this political climate.
Also, Putnam, the GOP front-runner, has literally been in politics since finishing college. That would be a huge liability. I can very easily imagine a lot of Scott/Scott/Morgan voters throughout the state.
When there is a vacancy in a Florida Court the governor does not get to control the replacement choice. A judicial nominating committee which partly appointed by the governor but majority appointed by the Florida Bar gives the governor 3 names to fill the vacancy and he must choose a name from the three.
The strength of any Florida Republican is monetary advantage and the organizational skill of the RPOF. Putnam's specific advantage beyond being in the superior state party is that with his institutional support he's virtually cleared the field; he'll have an immediate edge on fundraising and an activist presence while the Democrats will be fighting the primary.
As for that primary, I'm not particularly worried about John Morgan. A Democrat in Florida starts with college towns, big cities and minorities. That gets them to 45%. From there, they need to do better in some kind of group that votes for Republicans. Who does Morgan bring to the table? The young? I doubt it; marijuana didn't bring them out for Charlie Crist and it won't for Morgan either. Suburban whites? Maybe, but I don't see why. Personal injury attorneys aren't particularly popular and I can't think of anything he'd have over Putnam that'd make middle class whites flock to him. Southern whites? Cubans? I can't think of any particular reason for them to like him.
Gwen Graham's group appeal is easy: old Southern whites. It's not the easiest strategy but its what won her FL-2 and its where Bill Nelson has been successful as well. I'm not sure she'd be able to do it but pulling off the blue dog act along with nostalgia for her father is a viable campaign strategy. Until someone can explain Morgan's viable winning coalition Graham will be the better candidate in my eyes.
