Toss-Up to Tilt R.
Democrats have Wisconsin and Illinois, in all likelihood. Those are the easiest pickings. Let's be generous and give Indiana. They still need two of NH, FL, PA, and OH, PLUS they have to hold NV. Toomey will probably be fine, and I just don't "feel" like Portman will lose. Florida I'd call Tilt R, so even if they get NH, they'd still need one more to be safe, and that's risky, considering that the winner of NV will probably be the same party as the winner of the Presidency.
Generous would be giving the Democrats IL, WI, NH, OH, FL, PA, AZ, MO, IN, and holding NV. A Republican winning statewide in NV with Trump on the top of the ticket is about as likely as a Democrat winning statewide in OH in 2010 (i.e. it's simply not happening, period). Indiana and New Hampshire are both leaning Democratic, so that's already four seats. We could call Indiana a toss-up if we wanted to be generous to the Republicans, but there's really no evidence that Bayh doesn't have the double-digit lead that Democratic internals were suggesting (for one thing, he never would've gotten in unless he thought it was a slam-dunk).
Speaking as someone who lives in Ohio and has been following the Senate race pretty closely, that one is going to be extremely close either way, but between Trump, Strickland's truly bipartisan popularity in Appalachia, the fact that the Presidential race will boost African-American turnout (which was a problem for Strickland in 2010), Portman being so anonymous that he may have lower name recognition than Strickland (seriously, no one here knows who Portman even is), and the fact that the race is basically tied right now despite the fact that I've been seeing literally about 5-8 Portman ads a week for a while now compared to 1-2 ads for Strickland (an advantage Portman won't have once we get closer to the election), I suspect Strickland will narrowly pull out a win.
In Arizona, McCain has been running a pretty weak campaign while Kirkpatrick has been running a surprisingly strong one (complete with what is easily the best ad I've seen this cycle from a Senate candidate). This is also going to be McCain's first competitive general election in Arizona since...ever and he isn't nearly as popular as he used to be (for one thing, he has no cross-party appeal). And let's not forget that Trump is on the ballot
I don't see how McCain wins re-election, although this race is still a toss-up.
We won't really know much about Florida until we're a good 3-4 weeks past the primary. Missouri will be pretty close and while I think Blunt will skate by, I wouldn't be the least bit surprised to see him lose. Toomey would probably be looking at a 7-8 point victory in a normal year, but it's already become clear that Trump is really dragging him down. Right now, I think Toomey is probably looking at a 3-4 point victory (he's a pretty strong incumbent, McGinty is a weak B-lister at best, and PA has a strong Republican party), but if there really is a Democratic wave then Toomey might be screwed.
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