Rasmussen Tracking Poll [Obama vs McCain]

[J. J.]

Right now, it is a tie.

Thursday - September 11, 2008:

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 46% / 48%, including leaners (nc, nc)
McCain: 46% / 48%, including leaners (nc, +1)

Thank you for the clarification J.J.

There is something more important.  We see, generally, a lot of things that push Gallup around.  We don't see that with the 'bots.  The may be a general error in Rasmussen, but it's constant.  If we could figure what, if anything, the general error is, we might be able to get a better result.

[J. J.]

Rasmussen has been hugely stable.  It doesn't swing a lot.  There is no midweek/weekend bounce. 

Right now, it is a tie.

Mensa are so lucky to have you as a memeber.

Yes, and very fortunately, you cannot get it.

You mean, he "cannot get in"?

No, double meaning.

Please, Gustav, he's helping to illustrate a point. 

[J. J.]

Rasmussen has been hugely stable.  It doesn't swing a lot.  There is no midweek/weekend bounce. 

Right now, it is a tie.

Mensa are so lucky to have you as a memeber.

Yes, and very fortunately, you cannot get it.

You mean, he "cannot get in"?

No, double meaning.

Please, Gustav, he's helping to illustrate a point. 

You're a retard.

There's only one meaning in that.

Wrong on both counts, unless you are looking in a mirror, then it's only wrong on one count.

[J. J.]

Tonight, at 5:00 p.m. Eastern, new polling will be released for Idaho and Wyoming.

omg cant wait

maybe we'll get a Utah Gov poll out too!

I want the DC margin.

[J. J.]

Friday - September 12, 2008:

General: Head-to-Head

McCain: 48% / 49%, including leaners (+2, +1)
Obama: 45% / 46%, including leaners (-1, -2)

Favorability

McCain: 56% favorable, 42% unfavorable (nc, -1)
Obama: 55% favorable, 44% unfavorable (nc, +1)

One, this is too late to be a post convention bounce.

Two, the 'bots are fairly stable and don't have midweek bounce.

This is either a bad sample, or McCain is opening up a lead.  If it's a bad sample, we'll know by Monday, if not sooner.

[J. J.]

no, Wednesday was just bad high sample for Obama.  All of us Christians were at Wednesday night service handling snakes.  But Thursday night, those of us who survived the snake bites were back home.

I actually think something like that might explain Gallup. 

I'll concede that there might have been a really pro-Obama sample earlier in the week.

[J. J.]

Both the Friday numbers (not today, yesterday) for Rasmussen and Diageo look like outliers in the sample.  Of course, with Diageo, we have to wait until next week to find this out.

I was about to say the same thing.  There could be one really solid McCain sample that will drop out.  If so, it was Thursday's sample and will be out by Monday.

States has it right though, whatever this is, it isn't bounce.

[J. J.]

It still could be a very pro McCain sample in the mix, but it certainly doesn't look like it.

[J. J.]

McCain getting a majority of the vote?

Yay!

Yes but Obama went up as well. According to 538 Mccain's bounce should subside slowly so next week around this time would be a good time to check back on these polls. If Mccain is still leading, then this lead is for real. I except the race to become a tie or Obama+1 by the debates. We will see.

If it was a bad sample, McCain should really not have gone up at all.

[J. J.]

Remember when most people were saying, "Oh, yeah, this lead will be gone by the weekend (yesterday and today)."...?

Now it's, "Well, if it is still around by next week then it is serious."

Well this is according to 538 and they wrote this article a while back. Again I am not sure if it will happen or if the race has basically stabilized. I tend to side with 538 only because nothing too earth shattering has occured after the RNC, so if mccain's bounce is still sticking around it shouldn't be surprising.

It could be a shift to McCain.  Look, I was (maybe the first) guy who said, "Maybe it's a bad sample."  If that really was the case, McCain should not have increase.

[J. J.]

Remember when most people were saying, "Oh, yeah, this lead will be gone by the weekend (yesterday and today)."...?

Now it's, "Well, if it is still around by next week then it is serious."

Well this is according to 538 and they wrote this article a while back. Again I am not sure if it will happen or if the race has basically stabilized. I tend to side with 538 only because nothing too earth shattering has occured after the RNC, so if mccain's bounce is still sticking around it shouldn't be surprising.

It could be a shift to McCain.  Look, I was (maybe the first) guy who said, "Maybe it's a bad sample."  If that really was the case, McCain should not have increase.

You mean the lead is real? Yeah that could definitely be the case but it could still be a residual bounce and it is possible we might see it for another week or two, considering what happens in the campaign. If nothing significant happens it might even extend to the debates. But I doubt that. If Mccain is still leading by the time of the debates he is probably leading for real.

The bounce should have evaporated by now; even it it hadn't it shouldn't be coming back.  There may be a "real" lead.  I said 9/10 is when we should start looking and that we should know something around 9/15.  I'll hold off until the morrow, but that should be Obama's best day on Gallup.

[J. J.]

Remember when most people were saying, "Oh, yeah, this lead will be gone by the weekend (yesterday and today)."...?

Now it's, "Well, if it is still around by next week then it is serious."

Well this is according to 538 and they wrote this article a while back. Again I am not sure if it will happen or if the race has basically stabilized. I tend to side with 538 only because nothing too earth shattering has occured after the RNC, so if mccain's bounce is still sticking around it shouldn't be surprising.

It could be a shift to McCain.  Look, I was (maybe the first) guy who said, "Maybe it's a bad sample."  If that really was the case, McCain should not have increase.

You mean the lead is real? Yeah that could definitely be the case but it could still be a residual bounce and it is possible we might see it for another week or two, considering what happens in the campaign. If nothing significant happens it might even extend to the debates. But I doubt that. If Mccain is still leading by the time of the debates he is probably leading for real.

The bounce should have evaporated by now; even it it hadn't it shouldn't be coming back.  There may be a "real" lead.  I said 9/10 is when we should start looking and that we should know something around 9/15.  I'll hold off until the morrow, but that should be Obama's best day on Gallup.

You and 538 differ by about a week. Mccain's bounce has to subside right. Correct me if I am wrong but Mccain has not really led by more than 3 points has he. He is just staying steady on his bounce high.

The race seems to have stabilized after the bounce. 

[J. J.]

When was Mccain's high point? He seems to be there right now. What's interesting to me is how 538 seems to have predicted this. According to them we should watch next weekend for whether the bounce subsides.

Probably about +7, in Gallup, but the Obama weekend bounce hit some of it.

[J. J.]

McCain 49% (-1)
Obama 47% (nc)

Rasmussen agrees with Gallup again, and all is right with the world. (Except for the McCain lead.)

Now, it this with the new weighting.

[J. J.]

McCain 49% (-1)
Obama 47% (nc)

Rasmussen agrees with Gallup again, and all is right with the world. (Except for the McCain lead.)

Now, it this with the new weighting.

Yesterday was with the new weighting too.

To my understanding, and I could be wrong, it read to me that yesterday numbers, which is today poll, is still on the old weight. But I could be wrong.

There's no reason that they couldn't immediately use the new weighting.  It's not like it affects what sample they take.  That's no guarantee that they did, but I don't see any logical reason why they wouldn't.

Well, Rasmussen said that from September 14-20, it would be with the new weighting.  So, while it's obvious that it would be today's sample, I don't know about yesterday.  Seems kinda unclear.

Yea, it is very unclear, I guess it really don't matter.

Hence my question. 

[J. J.]

Some big poll numbers will be released tonight from Rasmussen:

At 6:00 p.m. Eastern, new state polling will be released for Colorado, Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia.

Well, he's going realease polls from these states every Monday now I think. I expect pretty much all of them to move slightly more toward McCain as compared to where they were last week.

Dear god, Phil is going to get annoying if we get a PA poll where they are tied or something.

Phil is very adamant in the case of PA falling to McCain this time, but I still think he underestimates the stubborness of the depressing steel working towns that, along with the inner cities, help tilt PA to the dems.

The ground game is mixed in Phila, and the White areas look less strong than they should.  I'll wait until 6:00 PM (and still probably won't make up my mind).

[J. J.]

Some big poll numbers will be released tonight from Rasmussen:

At 6:00 p.m. Eastern, new state polling will be released for Colorado, Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia.

Well, he's going realease polls from these states every Monday now I think. I expect pretty much all of them to move slightly more toward McCain as compared to where they were last week.

Dear god, Phil is going to get annoying if we get a PA poll where they are tied or something.

Phil is very adamant in the case of PA falling to McCain this time, but I still think he underestimates the stubborness of the depressing steel working towns that, along with the inner cities, help tilt PA to the dems.

The ground game is mixed in Phila, and the White areas look less strong than they should.  I'll wait until 6:00 PM (and still probably won't make up my mind).

What would you be making your mind up about exactly anyway?

How, I'm going to call the state.  I have PA as a tossup.

[J. J.]

Some big poll numbers will be released tonight from Rasmussen:

At 6:00 p.m. Eastern, new state polling will be released for Colorado, Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia.

Well, he's going realease polls from these states every Monday now I think. I expect pretty much all of them to move slightly more toward McCain as compared to where they were last week.

Dear god, Phil is going to get annoying if we get a PA poll where they are tied or something.

Phil is very adamant in the case of PA falling to McCain this time, but I still think he underestimates the stubborness of the depressing steel working towns that, along with the inner cities, help tilt PA to the dems.

The ground game is mixed in Phila, and the White areas look less strong than they should.  I'll wait until 6:00 PM (and still probably won't make up my mind).

What would you be making your mind up about exactly anyway?

How, I'm going to call the state.  I have PA as a tossup.

We're all on tenterhooks.

By the way, is competence in grammar not a prerequisite to get into Mensa?

No limits on typos.  I'll probabably have explain the difference to to you.  I'll take it
S-L-O-W-L-Y.

[J. J.]

Dear god, Phil is going to get annoying if we get a PA poll where they are tied or something.

If you can't take the heat, get out of the kitchen. I stick around when times are tough on me. You'll have to learn to do the same.

How could I leave and deprive you people of my amazing predictive powers?

So far, Phil has right.  And you see my reason for waiting.

[J. J.]

Bad week and it's a tie.  I'll take it.

[J. J.]

I posted a commentary yesterday, but things are becoming more clear now, so my mind is clearer, so to speak. 

The sudden movements and shifts in this race are becoming pretty easily explainable, at least as far as I can tell.  Two things are occurring:

1) Decay from McCain's convention bounce (as noticeable in Rasmussen)

2) A pretty strong shift in party ID, owed to one of two factors: 1) Decay from the Republican Convention or 2) economic crisis.  Given Gallup's movement (which is the best firm in measuring these things) pre and post-economic crisis, my best guess is that the latter is making the stronger impact.

The combination of these two things leads us from getting McCain +3 to +5 results last week to us seeing Obama +3 to +5 results this week.

Also, it is important now to remember the rules concerning party ID.  Party ID shifts because one of two things is occurring: 1) Republicans in the sample are choosing to ID as Indys, Indys choose to identify as Dems, and so on and so forth or 2) Republicans start becoming less likely to answer phone calls or get past LV screens.  It is impossible to tell at this point which of the two is stronger in occurrence right now, though I have my reasons (based on looking at the national polls) to think that it is the latter.

One other point:  Right now, we are in the middle of the storm.  Based on what I see, it's going to take, at minimum, until next Monday before we have a completely clear picture, maybe not until next Thursday, depending on the continuance of the economic crisis.

As such, I expect Gallup to be at least Obama +4 or +5 today.

I doubt it. I hope I'm wrong though.

Why not?  Unless there are more bailouts/bankruptcies to come in the next few days, yesterday's sample should fundamentally be the worst one for McCain.  Additionally, the last *mildly* pro-McCain sample drops off today.

Keep in mind, though, that if I thought Obama had "closed the deal" with regards to the economy (which the numbers do not in any way show), you would be seeing me talk about a *permanent* shift, rather than saying to wait until next week.

My guess is it's 3-5 on Gallup, which is showing +4 Obama, probably due to the financial markets.  Some of Obama's lead on Gallup is probably being suppressed by the midweek bounce.

[J. J.]

Quite frankly, you place too much weight in the midweek/weekend bounce theory.  I agree that there is one, but quite frankly, I can't say that it's more than a 1% at best.  That type of movement is likely to get lost in the noise.

I think it's there, on Gallup, and possibly above one 1%.  Rasmussen does not have it, so I think it might be the the way Gallup samples.

That's one of the reasons I take drops in Obama very seriously on Saturday-Monday and drops for McCain very seriously Wednesday-Friday, on Gallup. 

Rasmussen seems to be very study, but I disagree that it might not have a lag of 1-2 days.

Gallup reacts quickly, but it's too volatile.  Rasmussen doesn't react as quickly, but it isn't volatile.

[J. J.]

The average McCain net over-performance on weekends in Gallup was +1.2, last time I checked.  Take that as you like.

Over-performance?

Well, "over" being relative to his week-day average, not "over" to his actual performance, which is obviously a totally un-knowable number.  But you'd think, week after week, the swings would average out enough to give us a general idea of the "weekend bounce."

I get what you're saying, though you're being confusing.  I suspect we generally agree on this, however. 

How long was the period you looked at?

[J. J.]

I didn't do it, but IIRC, it went back to the start of the poll.

That could be a problem.  It seemed to be there over the summer.

[J. J.]

I didn't do it, but IIRC, it went back to the start of the poll.

That could be a problem.  It seemed to be there over the summer.

It seemed to be, or seemed not to be?  In any case, I think they did it monthly too, and the results appeared to be mostly noise, with a +1-2 McCain advantage.  Including rounding, that's not especially impressive either way.

Seem to be there, present.  I'm wondering if the looked at the number before Clinton was out.