The FIFA World Cup tipping competition

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Brazil 2-1 Chile
Colombia 3-1 Uruguay

[Arturo Belano]

Brazil 1-0 Chile
Uruguay 1-2 Colombia

[bore]

Assuming this is for 90 minutes:

Brazil 3-1 Chile
Colombia 2-0 Uruguay

[morgieb]

Brazil 2-1 Chile
Colombia 1-0 Uruguay

[Keystone Phil]

Brazil -  3
Chile -  1

Colombia -  3
Uruguay -  0

[Edu]

Brazil - Chile (2-0) ugh

Colombia - Uruguay (3-1)

[Goodwin]

Brazil 2-0 Chile

Colombia 2-1 Uruguay

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

brazil 3-1 chile
colombia 1-1 uruguay (uruguay advances)

netherlands 0-0 mexico (netherlands advance)
costa rica 2-0 greece

[minionofmidas]

For the knockout stage, these rules require slight modifications:
We'll be predicting the score after 90 minutes, plus who'll advance in case that we predict a draw.
1 point per tendency (win/draw/loss)
1 point for getting the advancing team right
1 point per goal difference (not available in drawn games)
1 point each per team's scores
Still a total of up to 5.

And here comes the part I'm still very much open to suggestions on: The knockout stage provides only 1/4 of the games overall - should it be given higher weight? Say, double points? Double for the sweet 16 and triple after that? Or is that a bad idea?

Shouldn't that be at the end of playing time (regardless whether 90 or 120 minutes)? Games decided in extra time are not usually considered draws.

They are in sports betting, though, at least in this country. Besides, I like the tendency / advancing team split, especially since we're on double points from here on out. The main alternative would have been to ignore penalty shootouts entirely and treat overtime wins and ordinary wins identically, which is what statistics compilers usually do, but is comparatively boring for the competition. (Or else complex rules that pretty much require people to be online at the 90th minute.)

[minionofmidas]

what you all have been waiting for - a new update, and new suspense at the top!

Lief 99
Snowstalker 97
Cris 96
Icehand Gino 96
Gass 94
a person 88
Jas 87
bore 81
Gmantis 81
Minion of Midas 80
Keystone Phil 79
Franzl 77
Hughento 75
Tender Branson 75
Goodwin 72
Edu 70
morgieb 70
Gully Foyle 68
Simfan 67
Arturo Belano 65
New York Express 63
Rod President 35
Hamster 16
Bacon King 8

[Platypus]

I believe the way I did it was similar or even the same to Lewis. Score at the end of normal play, then picking who actually wins.

Brazil 2-2 Chile (Brazil to advance)

Colombia 2-0 Uruguay

[Lief 🗽]

Brazil wins 2-1

Colombia wins 2-0

[Gass3268]

Brazil 2-1 Chile

Colombia 2-0 Uruguay

[Tetro Kornbluth]

For the next round is it first 90 minutes only?

If so, I will go with:

Brazil 2-1 Chile
Colombia 2-0 Uruguay

Netherlands 1-1 Mexico
Costa Rica 1-1 Greece

France 4-1 Nigeria
Germany 3-0 Algeria

Argentina 2-1 Switzerland
Belgium 2-1 USA

EDITED to include final predictions:

Netherlands and Costa Rica to advance

[minionofmidas]

Brazil - Chile 3-1
Colombia - Uruguay 3-0 (though really, I think that Colombia either wins easily or this goes to overtime. If that makes sense.)

[Tender Branson]

Update because of Lewis' message:

Achtelfinale:

28.06.    Brasilien            Chile                   1-1 (then Brazil wins 2-1 during overtime)
28.06.    Kolumbien          Uruguay             1-0
29.06.    Niederlande       Mexiko                1-1 (no goals in OT, then penalty shootout, NL wins)
29.06.    Costa Rica          Griechenland      3-1      
30.06.    Frankreich          Nigeria                2-0
30.06.    Deutschland       Algerien              4-0
01.07.    Argentinien        Schweiz              3-1
01.07.    Belgien               USA                    2-1

[minionofmidas]

Needless to say, I'm counting these as 1-1, Brazil / Netherlands to advance, so if the details about what goes on after the 90th minute are wrong you don't lose any points.

There was a third recipient of a pm btw, but he has three days' time before the game requiring correction comes up.

[Tender Branson]

Needless to say, I'm counting these as 1-1, Brazil / Netherlands to advance, so if the details about what goes on after the 90th minute are wrong you don't lose any points.

There was a third recipient of a pm btw, but he has three days' time before the game requiring correction comes up.

Passt.

[Senator Cris]

Brazil-Chile 3-1
Colombia-Uruguay 1-0

[GMantis]

Brazil 2-1 Chile
Colombia 3-0 Uruguay

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Lief 99
Snowstalker 97

daaaaaaaaaaamn

[GMantis]

For the knockout stage, these rules require slight modifications:
We'll be predicting the score after 90 minutes, plus who'll advance in case that we predict a draw.
1 point per tendency (win/draw/loss)
1 point for getting the advancing team right
1 point per goal difference (not available in drawn games)
1 point each per team's scores
Still a total of up to 5.

And here comes the part I'm still very much open to suggestions on: The knockout stage provides only 1/4 of the games overall - should it be given higher weight? Say, double points? Double for the sweet 16 and triple after that? Or is that a bad idea?

Shouldn't that be at the end of playing time (regardless whether 90 or 120 minutes)? Games decided in extra time are not usually considered draws.

They are in sports betting, though, at least in this country. Besides, I like the tendency / advancing team split, especially since we're on double points from here on out. The main alternative would have been to ignore penalty shootouts entirely and treat overtime wins and ordinary wins identically, which is what statistics compilers usually do, but is comparatively boring for the competition. (Or else complex rules that pretty much require people to be online at the 90th minute.)

The problem with this system is that someone who correctly guessed who would win and the exact score would get just two points, while someone who guessed the incorrect winner but guessed the score after 90 minutes would get six. This doesn't seem at all to be a fair indication of ability to make predictions. And the fact that winning by penalties and by an extra time goal is treated exactly the same doesn't seem logical at all.

[minionofmidas]

The problem with this system is that someone who correctly guessed who would win and the exact score would get just two points, while someone who guessed the incorrect winner but guessed the score after 90 minutes would get six.

This worst case scenario seems to be assuming a game where both teams score during overtime, one of them more often than the other? How many of these have there been in the past 30 years - the two I can think of offhand being in 1982 and 1970 (and pretty famous semifinals involving Germany)? Oh, and 8, not 6.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Both are essentially matters of luck. It could have been done differently as well... that's kinda why I released the rules a week before the tournament started and asked for input. Now it's a bit late.

[minionofmidas]

Lots of people getting four points.

Lief 103
Snowstalker 101
Cris 100
Icehand Gino 100
Gass 98
a person 92
Jas 91
bore 85
Gmantis 85
Minion of Midas 84
Keystone Phil 83
Tender Branson 83
Franzl 81
Hughento 79
Goodwin 74
morgieb 74
Gully Foyle 72
Edu 70
Arturo Belano 69
New York Express 67
Simfan 67
Rod President 35
Hamster 16
Bacon King 8

EDIT: Fixed two genuine errors and a printing error.

[NewYorkExpress]

Lots of people getting four points.

Lief 103
Snowstalker 101
Cris 100
Icehand Gino 100
Gass 98
a person 92
Jas 91
bore 85
Gmantis 85
Tender Branson 85
Minion of Midas 84
Keystone Phil 83
Franzl 81
Hughento 81
Goodwin 74
morgieb 74
Gully Foyle 72
Edu 70
Arturo Belano 65
New York Express 67
Simfan 67
Rod President 35
Hamster 16
Bacon King 8

Hey, I'm out of last place!