Canadian by-elections 2023

[adma]

I think what these byelections might suggest that an NDP government in SK is most likely to happen in a "Notley 2015" kinda way. Which is to say, a split in the right-wing vote leading to the NDP winning some pretty far-fetched seats that they simply couldn't against a united right. This would include some of the more right-wing suburban seats in Regina and Stoon, but also places like Moose Jaw, The Battlefords, etc.

Except that Moose Jaw and The Battlefords *aren't* that far-fetched--unlike, say, Red Deer, they're places where the NDP have a record of provincial electability as recently as 2007.

What *would* be far-fetched are the "early Romanow/pre-Sask Party" kinds of former NDP seats.

[Hatman 🍁]

IMHO Saskatchewan is going the way of Alberta politically with Regina and Saskatoon increasingly headed towards Edmonton-like voting patterns. The difference is that Alberta is much more urban than Saskatchewan. The Alberta NDP can win a majority by sweeping Edmonton and winning two-thirds of Calgary since a majority of seats are in those two cities - they don't even need to win every seat in Calgary, just most of them.

Saskatchewan is much less urban, even if the NDP were to win every single solitary seat in Regina and Saskatoon, they would not win the province. They would need to also take the two northern seats and both Moose Jaw and both Prince Albert seats and then they would get a 1 seat majority.

Of course over time Regina and Saskatoon are growing and the rural areas are losing people and so I expect the next redistribution in Saskatchewan may tip the balance a bit more by adding a couple more urban seats and ditching a rural seat or two. (addendum - there is a new map out and it basically turns a couple of mixed urban rural seats in the cities into purely urban seats. Saskatchewan will have 59 seats - 12 in Regina, 14 in Saskatoon, 2 in each of PA and MJ and 2 in the north. So theoretically if the NDP won all of them they would have 32 seats and the SP would have 27...but there are some very suburban seats that could be tough for the NDP to win - at least based on past results

I think what these byelections might suggest that an NDP government in SK is most likely to happen in a "Notley 2015" kinda way. Which is to say, a split in the right-wing vote leading to the NDP winning some pretty far-fetched seats that they simply couldn't against a united right. This would include some of the more right-wing suburban seats in Regina and Stoon, but also places like Moose Jaw, The Battlefords, etc.

Maybe, but the SUP missed the boat on that by-election. They certainly did better than expected, though.

I'm not sure, is there any part of rural Saskatchewan that might be particularly amenable to a right wing populist party? Manitoba of course has the Mennonites, and Wildrose made inroads with the heavily LDS riding along the US border. 

[adma]

I'm not sure, is there any part of rural Saskatchewan that might be particularly amenable to a right wing populist party? Manitoba of course has the Mennonites, and Wildrose made inroads with the heavily LDS riding along the US border. 

The main Mennonite concentration that comes to mind is the Martensville/Warman area N of Saskatoon; but I'm not so sure how inclined to breakaway political forces it is.  (It seems like Saskatchewan's breakaway reflex hinges less upon specific religious sects than upon "frontierism".)

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

I'm not sure, is there any part of rural Saskatchewan that might be particularly amenable to a right wing populist party? Manitoba of course has the Mennonites, and Wildrose made inroads with the heavily LDS riding along the US border.  

It's definitely less distinct than Manitoba's Mennonite Belt or southern Alberta. Although like Alberta, southern Saskatchewan seems like the part of the province where right wing populism has more appeal. Buffalo Party had some pretty strong 2020 performances in a couple of southeastern (Estevan, Cannington) and southwestern (Kindersley, Cypress Hills) ridings. But yeah it seems more geographically spread out in Saskatchewan, which doesn't work out well for the breakaway parties. SKP probably isn't too bothered about losing 20% to a right-wing splinter in a riding where they normally get 70%+ anyway, but combined with also losing votes to the NDP, it could cause problems in suburban Saskatoon and Regina, and smaller population centres too.

But even then, the small parties would really need to surge, AND the NDP would need to make serious gains, to result in a 2015 Alberta situation. The NDP's 31st strongest riding in 2020 (31 being the magic number for a majority), Saskatchewan Rivers, voted SKP by 62-26. Unless Moe becomes really unpopular (Angus Reid had him at 57% approval in June, so it would need to be a steep fall), it ain't gonna happen.

[DL]

The NDP's 31st strongest riding in 2020 (31 being the magic number for a majority), Saskatchewan Rivers, voted SKP by 62-26. Unless Moe becomes really unpopular (Angus Reid had him at 57% approval in June, so it would need to be a steep fall), it ain't gonna happen.

Funny you should mention Saskatchewan Rivers. Isn't that the seat where the Sask Party MLA was expelled because she was an anti-vaccine crackpot - and she went on to form and lead the new Sask United Party? So that is one seat where interesting things could happen since you will have a SUP running who is the incumbent and party leader AND its a seat where there is more vestigial NDP support than in most other rural seats (Largely because it so far north that it likely has a large Indigenous vote share)

[super6646]

Last poll from Preston in now.

Grosse (PC) - 1950 (45.2%) (+16.5%)
Simmonds (NDP) - 1145 (26.6%) (-1.4%)
Simmons (Lib) - 1021 (23.7%) (-19.7%)
Edmonds (GP) - 101 (2.3%)
Taylor (NSU) - 95 (2.2%)

Quite the result.

Obviously good news for the Nova Scotia PCs. There is a bit of a pattern in Atlantic Canada of incumbent parties doing well in byelections. It’s an old clientelist attitude of “I better elect an MLA from the government side or else my roads will never be paved”. A total catastrophe for the Liberals. NDP is probably quietly pleased to come in second and see the Liberals lose a seat. Sets them up to maybe overtake the Libs in 2025

Now that’s a reference back to my days as a political science student

[MaxQue]

The NDP's 31st strongest riding in 2020 (31 being the magic number for a majority), Saskatchewan Rivers, voted SKP by 62-26. Unless Moe becomes really unpopular (Angus Reid had him at 57% approval in June, so it would need to be a steep fall), it ain't gonna happen.

Funny you should mention Saskatchewan Rivers. Isn't that the seat where the Sask Party MLA was expelled because she was an anti-vaccine crackpot - and she went on to form and lead the new Sask United Party? So that is one seat where interesting things could happen since you will have a SUP running who is the incumbent and party leader AND its a seat where there is more vestigial NDP support than in most other rural seats (Largely because it so far north that it likely has a large Indigenous vote share)

What is it with Nadines being cranks? (her, Dorries, Morano...)

[Benjamin Frank]

The NDP's 31st strongest riding in 2020 (31 being the magic number for a majority), Saskatchewan Rivers, voted SKP by 62-26. Unless Moe becomes really unpopular (Angus Reid had him at 57% approval in June, so it would need to be a steep fall), it ain't gonna happen.

Funny you should mention Saskatchewan Rivers. Isn't that the seat where the Sask Party MLA was expelled because she was an anti-vaccine crackpot - and she went on to form and lead the new Sask United Party? So that is one seat where interesting things could happen since you will have a SUP running who is the incumbent and party leader AND its a seat where there is more vestigial NDP support than in most other rural seats (Largely because it so far north that it likely has a large Indigenous vote share)

Saskatchewan Rivers is the riding in 2003 that the NDP flipped from the Sask Party to hold onto a majority government 30-28.

[Hatman 🍁]

Let's remember that the next SK election will be fought on new boundaries. I'm not sure if anyone has done the redistributed numbers yet. Shouldn't be too difficult using ridingbuilder.

[Benjamin Frank]

IMHO Saskatchewan is going the way of Alberta politically with Regina and Saskatoon increasingly headed towards Edmonton-like voting patterns. The difference is that Alberta is much more urban than Saskatchewan. The Alberta NDP can win a majority by sweeping Edmonton and winning two-thirds of Calgary since a majority of seats are in those two cities - they don't even need to win every seat in Calgary, just most of them.

Saskatchewan is much less urban, even if the NDP were to win every single solitary seat in Regina and Saskatoon, they would not win the province. They would need to also take the two northern seats and both Moose Jaw and both Prince Albert seats and then they would get a 1 seat majority.

Of course over time Regina and Saskatoon are growing and the rural areas are losing people and so I expect the next redistribution in Saskatchewan may tip the balance a bit more by adding a couple more urban seats and ditching a rural seat or two. (addendum - there is a new map out and it basically turns a couple of mixed urban rural seats in the cities into purely urban seats. Saskatchewan will have 59 seats - 12 in Regina, 14 in Saskatoon, 2 in each of PA and MJ and 2 in the north. So theoretically if the NDP won all of them they would have 32 seats and the SP would have 27...but there are some very suburban seats that could be tough for the NDP to win - at least based on past results

There wil be 61 ridings, the same as now. The two northern ridings, Athabasca and Cumberland, are untouched by the redistricting in the other 59 ridings: Are the two northern constituencies (Athabasca and Cumberland) included in the 2022 redistribution process?
No, as per The Constituency Boundaries Act, 1993 the Constituency Boundaries Commission‘s mandate is to divide the area of Saskatchewan south of the dividing line into 59 constituencies and propose the name for each proposed constituency.

You are correct about the rest - 14 ridings in Saskatoon, 12 in Regina, 4 in Moose Jaw and Prince Albert and the two northern ridings for a total of 32.

Of the 29 rural/town/suburban ridings:
3 of them are self contained towns - Swift Current, Yorkton and, sort of, The Battlefords which comprises the larger town of North Battleford and the small town of Battleford.

3 are town/rural ridings that are more than half a self contained town: Estevan-Big Muddy, Lloydminster, which is a small city of over 30,000, but about 2/3 live on the Alberta side, and Weyburn-Bengough.

3 are suburban ridings,( as far as I can tell) all of which are fast growing areas: Martensville-Blairmore, a Saskatoon suburb, Warman, a Sasatoon suburb, and White City-Qu'Appelle, a Regina suburb. These growing suburban ridings have voted heavily for the Sask Party.

These are the 20 rural non north ridings all with the largest town less than 6,000. The town of La Ronge which has a population over 5,000 is in Cumberland.

1.Batoche
2.Cannington
3.Canora-Pelly
4.Carrot River Valley (Nipawin, 2021 population 4,143)
5.Cut Knife-Turtleford
6.Cypress Hills
7.Dakota-Arm River
8.Humboldt-Watrous (Humboldt, 2021 population 5,313)
9.Kelvington-Wadena
10.Kindersley-Biggar
11.Last Mountain-Touchwood
12.Lumsden-Morse
13.Meadow Lake (Meadow Lake, 2021 populaton 5,141)
14.Melfort (Melfort, 2021 population, 5,718)
15.Melville-Saltcoats (Melville, 2021 population 4,075)
16.Moosomin-Montmatre
17.Rosetown-Delisle
18.Rosthern-Shellbrook
19.Saskatchewan Rivers
20.Wood River

There should be a town of 'Jumparound' in Cypress Hills.

The larger towns are probably overrepresented by Premiers. From 1944-
Premier Tommy Douglas represented Weyburn, Premier Grant Devine (probably the worst Premier in Saskatchewan's history) represented Estevan and Premier Brad Wall represented Swift Current.

[MaxQue]

Preparing for the Sask byelections, I notice that it looks like they've gone the megapoll route as well--according to Elections Saskatchewan, Lumsden-Morse has 22 regular polls, the Reginas 5 apiece.  ***CRINGE***

You'll be happy to know the government rejected Elections Saskatchewan proposal to use tabulators next election.

[Poirot]

Today is the provincial by-election in Jean-talon in Quebec City. It was always won by the Liberals until the byelection in 2019. 22% of electors have already voted in advanced polls.

In the general election of October 3, 2022 the results were:
CAQ 32.5 %
QS 23,76%
PQ 18,69%
PLQ 13,51%
PCQ 10,36%
Green 0,77%
Climat Québec 0,27%

This time the media are expecting a batlle between CAQ and PQ.

[DL]

Today is the provincial by-election in Jean-talon in Quebec City. It was always won by the Liberals until the byelection in 2019. 22% of electors have already voted in advanced polls.

In the general election of October 3, 2022 the results were:
CAQ 32.5 %
QS 23,76%
PQ 18,69%
PLQ 13,51%
PCQ 10,36%
Green 0,77%
Climat Québec 0,27%

This time the media are expecting a batlle between CAQ and PQ.

It would be notable if the PQ won Jean talon that they have NEVER won that seat before - not even in the Levesque heydays. Its the most upscale and professional ridings in Quebec City and what few non-francophones there are in QC mostly live there

[Poirot]

Turnout at the end of the afternoon was 39%.
Turnout for the byelection in December 2019 was 49%. In the October 2022 general election it was 73.8%.

Seems like a good turnout.

[Poirot]

PQ wins by a large margin. It has double the votes of CAQ.
Near the end of vote count it's PQ 44%, CAQ 21.4%, QS 17.4%, PLQ 8.8%, PCQ 6%.
Turnout of about 57%.

[VPH]

PQ wins by a large margin. It has double the votes of CAQ.
Near the end of vote count it's PQ 44%, CAQ 21.4%, QS 17.4%, PLQ 8.8%, PCQ 6%.
Turnout of about 57%.

Quite the interesting result considering their historic weakness there!

[warandwar]

PQ wins by a large margin. It has double the votes of CAQ.
Near the end of vote count it's PQ 44%, CAQ 21.4%, QS 17.4%, PLQ 8.8%, PCQ 6%.
Turnout of about 57%.

Impressive that QS kept a big chunk of their vote - the swings here are interesting. I haven't paid attention to quebec politics in a minute, is Legault losing popularity? Or is there a more local reason (eg high civil service population angry at working conditions)?

[Logical]

It's more a vote against CAQ than a vote for PQ. But nonetheless, the end of separatism as the polarizing issue in QC politics means that PQ can start winning in strange places.

[Poirot]

Results with number of votes and percentage

Parti québécois   11 307   44,06 %   
Coalition avenir Québec   5 474   21,33 %   
Québec solidaire   4 491   17,50 %   
Parti libéral du Québec   2 270   8,85 %   
Parti conservateur du Québec   1 558   6,07 %   
Climat Québec   308   1,20 %   
Parti vert du Québec   152   0,59 %

Turnout 55.21%   

[DL]

Yikes - CAQ almost came in third behind QS

[Poirot]

Legault is still popular but if I remember the number of people satisfied with the government is about the same as not satisfied.

Abandoning the third link promise soon after the election could have put doubts on trust even if the project was not most popular in this riding. CAQ has so many members of National Assembly it send a message of you can't become too arrogant and powerful. There are contract negotiations with public serctor unions so employees might want to show displeasure.

It's weird to see poll breakdowns between Montreal, Quebec City and rest of Quebec, the PQ does best in Quebec City. For a long time it has been a problem to win there and make it almost impossible to win a majority.

[Хahar 🤔]

I assume that the PQ won here because people like PSPP. Is there any particular group he appeals to?

[adma]

I assume that the PQ won here because people like PSPP. Is there any particular group he appeals to?

It almost seems as if the PSPP PQ is a readymade parking lot for those who long for the binary stability of the PQ/PLQ "good old days" but who aren't yet ready to cast their lot w/the presently basket-case/AngloAllo-rump Libs.  That is, rejecting CAQ but also the (relatively) newfangled options of PCQ and QS...

[Hatman 🍁]

Swings:

PQ +25.4%
CAQ -11.2%
QS: -6.3%
PLQ: -4.7%
PCQ: -4.3%

PQ GAIN from CAQ (Avg. 2 party Swing: 18.3%)

Turnout was quite high, at 55.2%

Clearly the PQ is set to be the main opposition to the CAQ for the pure laine vote outside Montreal/Gatineau.

[Hatman 🍁]

Provincial by-election called for Kitchener Centre for Nov 30. The prevailing wisdom thinks this will be an NDP vs. Green race. Both parties are running city councillors.