GA-6 Special election discussion thread

[McGovernForPrez]

Do you see Democrats asking the Obamas, Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, the Clintons, or anyone to campaign for Ossoff? Are the Clintons and the Obamas too "politically and personally damaged" to make an visit?

I feel like having Obama or Clinton campaign there, would only remind Republican voters to get out and vote against the politicians they hate. Bernie is a great guy to have in places like Montana, but I can't imagine him being popular in Georgia suburb.

[heatcharger]

2016 Republican primary voters aren't necessarily Republican voters in this election.

[Dr. Arch]

So I see people are overreacting as usual. You'd think a forum like this wouldn't try to call the election based on early voting, especially after what happened last year.

I learned my lesson.

[The Other Castro]

So I see people are overreacting as usual. You'd think a forum like this wouldn't try to call the election based on early voting, especially after what happened last year.

Who's calling the election?

[Tartarus Sauce]

2016 Republican primary voters aren't necessarily Republican voters in this election.

^This

But it'll be more useful to see the final voting percentages and the polls leading up to the June runoff. Don't be surprised if Republicans royally screw the pooch in Congress in the interim either, adding more fuel to the flames. Nothing's off the table until the vote happens, as last election taught us.

[Rjjr77]

Again, early voting party preference is just not predictive of final totals.
Also waaaay too many assumptions on here that unaffiliated and new registrants are auto Ossoff supporters.

If Ossoff gets 50+1 I'll be the most shocked person in history.

[McGovernForPrez]

Also waaaay too many assumptions on here that unaffiliated and new registrants are auto Ossoff supporters.

From what I've heard most of the new registrants are more likely to be younger minorities, so I think it's fair to assume a majority of the new registrants are gonna be voting for Ossof. Otherwise yeah, I don't trust early voting very much.

[Jeppe]

Still predicting that Ossoff hits 50% on the first ballot and avoids a run-off.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Like KS-04 could Ossoff do really well with rep voters?

[Holmes]

Like KS-04 could Ossoff do really well with rep voters?

Considering the demographics here vs. KS-04, I'd say yes. Especially since Hillary did in November. However with many different Republicans to choose from, I think it's unlikely they'll cross over as much in the first round as they would if it were one on one.

[Barnes]

Like KS-04 could Ossoff do really well with rep voters?

Well that's the only reason that this election is such a hot-topic. In a recent poll, something like 18% of the district's residents identified as Democrats versus nearly 50% who said they were Republicans. You cannot win Ga-6 without Republicans voting for you.

[heatcharger]

Like KS-04 could Ossoff do really well with rep voters?

Cohn has verified "a lot of people who last voted in a Republican primary who are voting for Ossoff" on Twitter, so possibly. Clinton won ~17% of Republican primary voters in this district, so I'd say there's a decent chance Ossoff is getting at least 10% or more.

Getting Rubio (and Kasich) primary voters in suburban ATL seems like a more doable task than flipping registered Rs in Kansas who probably went for Cruz. However, Democrats need to get more young people out to vote on Election Day, because the early vote is looking very old, which means the pool of highly probable voters on Election Day is drying up.

[RI]

Like KS-04 could Ossoff do really well with rep voters?

Cohn has verified "a lot of people who last voted in a Republican primary who are voting for Ossoff" on Twitter, so possibly. Clinton won ~17% of Republican primary voters in this district, so I'd say there's a decent chance Ossoff is getting at least 10% or more.

He hasn't "verified;" he's modeled. Big difference.

[publicunofficial]

The amount of Kansas Republicans voting Dem may also be due to Brownback's unpopularity with moderate R's. Some of the same Republicans that backed Paul Davis.

[RI]

Like KS-04 could Ossoff do really well with rep voters?

Cohn has verified "a lot of people who last voted in a Republican primary who are voting for Ossoff" on Twitter, so possibly. Clinton won ~17% of Republican primary voters in this district, so I'd say there's a decent chance Ossoff is getting at least 10% or more.

He hasn't "verified;" he's modeled. Big difference.

No. As in he actually has interacted with "a lot" of these people on Twitter and verified against the voter rolls.

Uh huh...

[Maxwell]

I'm gonna go ahead and project that Ossoff is going to lose. The negative attacks are starting to get stronger, and I'm already seeing Ossoff's limits as a candidate.

[Xing]

Personally, I'm going to wait until next week before I try to gauge where this race is headed. I highly doubt that Ossoff will win outright. Maybe he'll get near 45% if he has a good night, but I'm almost positive this will head to a run-off, and then we'll have a better idea who's favored.

[RI]

Like KS-04 could Ossoff do really well with rep voters?

Cohn has verified "a lot of people who last voted in a Republican primary who are voting for Ossoff" on Twitter, so possibly. Clinton won ~17% of Republican primary voters in this district, so I'd say there's a decent chance Ossoff is getting at least 10% or more.

He hasn't "verified;" he's modeled. Big difference.

No. As in he actually has interacted with "a lot" of these people on Twitter and verified against the voter rolls.

Uh huh...

Nate Cohn‏ @Nate_Cohn

Replying to @accommodatingly
Absolutely--I've even encountered many on Twitter who lasted voted in a GOP primary (verified it) and voted Clinton/will vote Ossoff
9:44 PM · Apr 7, 2017
4 RETWEETS
25 LIKES

Whatever dude. Doubt it if you want

Twitter does not comprise a representative nor notably large sample of such voters.

[Klartext89]

Like KS-04 could Ossoff do really well with rep voters?

Cohn has verified "a lot of people who last voted in a Republican primary who are voting for Ossoff" on Twitter, so possibly. Clinton won ~17% of Republican primary voters in this district, so I'd say there's a decent chance Ossoff is getting at least 10% or more.

If Nate Cohn thinks it looks well for the Dems, you guys should be really worried :-D

[Ronnie]

Republicans absolutely crushed Dems today:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/851983941724721152

Not liking what I see.  Ossoff might not even hit 40% on the first ballot when push comes to shove.

[TheSaint250]

The important question for today:

Does Estes's less-than-10% victory in KS-04 mean Ossoff has a greater chance to take GA-06?

Personally, I would say maybe slightly since the districts are not really connected to each other, even with some momentum.  I would've thought the media would've been saying last night put GA-06 and MT-AL, not to mention the entire House, in more of a tossup position, but no one really did.

[Dr. Arch]

Republicans absolutely crushed Dems today:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/851983941724721152

Not liking what I see.  Ossoff might not even hit 40% on the first ballot when push comes to shove.

Don't make estimates based on early voting.

[Chief Justice Keef]

The important question for today:

Does Estes's less-than-10% victory in KS-04 mean Ossoff has a greater chance to take GA-06?

Personally, I would say maybe slightly since the districts are not really connected to each other, even with some momentum.  I would've thought the media would've been saying last night put GA-06 and MT-AL, not to mention the entire House, in more of a tossup position, but no one really did.

This race probably says more about MT-AL. A Berniecrat's running there against Gianforte, receiving a lot of grassroots support and could actually win.

[ApatheticAustrian]

especially since those states are known to be more populist-friendly (at least theoretically and historically) than GA.

[DrScholl]

Democrats had an advantage in early voting for 11 days, which suggests that most of their voters have already voted by now. There is also the fact that not every Republican showing up is voting for a Republican.