New DailyKos/Research 2000 tracking poll

[Kalimantan]

9-16

Obama 48 (nc)
McCain 44 (-1)

Please sticky this, and please remove DailyKos from the title, as I think it has been irrefutably decided by arguments in other threads that when a partisan organisation merely publishes or orders the poll, their name doesn't get included with the Poll title. Thanks.

[Kalimantan]

9-16

Obama 48 (nc)
McCain 44 (-1)

Please sticky this, and please remove DailyKos from the title, as I think it has been irrefutably decided by arguments in other threads that when a partisan organisation merely publishes or orders the poll, their name doesn't get included with the Poll title. Thanks.

I find it quite amusing that people care so much about this.  What do you have against it being listed as a DailyKos poll?  Worried that the fact that the most pro-Obama tracking poll out there would be taken less seriously if everyone knew that it was a highly partisan, Obama-backing site that financed the whole operation?

(In any case, there are significant problems with this poll that go beyond who pays for it.)

I have absolutely nothing against it being listed as a DailyKos poll. Surprisingly enough, I like DailyKos and hope this makes more people visit the site. But you must admit that there has been a complete binfest from a good 10-15 people on the other threads at the mere notion of putting "Fox" in front of a Rasmussen poll, as if their God had been offended, which rather amused me. So there

I agree there may well be problems with their poll, particularly their minority and partisan numbers. But the beauty is the crosstabs are there so we can check, refute, change them to our whim - and best of all, compare with the final result in November. (Well, not me, but somebody can if they want to). And of course, don't forget it is a tracker, the point of which is not the actual numbers, but the trends they report. Which, for today, are in exact agreement with Gallup and Ras.

[Kalimantan]

Wednesday - September 17, 2008:

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 48% (nc)
McCain: 44% (nc)

Daily sample Obama +5

Internals: http://www.dailykos.com/dailypoll/2008/09/17

[Kalimantan]

This poll's partisan breakdowns are the same as Gallup's, according to this post:

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/9/24/7286/97809/238/607946

"Of interest for those questioning the R2K demographics is this post yesterday from Gallup:

Democrats have re-established a double-digit advantage over Republicans in party affiliation, with 49% of Americans identifying themselves as Democrats or leaning to the Democratic Party, and 39% identifying as Republicans or leaning to the Republican Party. This is a shift from immediately after the Republican National Convention, when Democrats enjoyed their smallest advantage of the year, leading only 47% to 42%.

Self-identified party ID is a variable, and something poll junkies will always want to discuss, as it affects topline numbers. It's great when pollsters are transparent about their internals – a hat tip to everyone who publishes this!!

Pollster        D     R     I     (Dem-Rep)
Research 2000:  35    26    30    +9
Diageo/Hotline: 41    36    19    +5   
Rasmussen:      39    33.5  27.5  +5.5
Gallup:         35    26    33    +9
ABC:            38    28    29    +10

Gallup, in other words, has Democrats +9 to R2K's +9 when leaners are excluded, whereas Diageo/Hotline (+5) is closer to Rasmussen (+5.5). Who is right? Let's see the 11/4/08 exit polls. In the meantime, R2K's assumption seems as reasonable as Gallup's. Adding leaners to the self-identified party ID for Gallup makes the D's +10 (i.e., only a slight change), lending credence to the idea that it's okay to push leaners – you won't radically change the results."

[Kalimantan]

Tuesday- September 30, 2008:

Obama - 51% (nc)
McCain - 41% (-1)

2nd successive +11 daily sample yesterday

[Kalimantan]

Wednesday - October 1st, 2008:

Obama - 51% (nc)
McCain - 41% (nc)

[Kalimantan]

Thursday- October 2nd, 2008:

Obama - 51% (nc)
McCain - 40% (-1)

[Kalimantan]

Friday- October 3rd, 2008:

Obama - 51% (nc)
McCain - 40% (nc)

[Kalimantan]

R2K's Obama figures are similar to Gallup's and Rasmussens'. McCain's are much lower, thus resulting in this huge gap. Are they just not pushing leaners as much?

[Kalimantan]

Wednesday - October 7, 2008:

Obama - 51% (-1)
McCain - 41% (nc)

[Kalimantan]

sticky

[Kalimantan]

Friday- October 9, 2008:

Obama - 52% (+1)
McCain - 40% (-1)

Thursday's single day sample was +14, Obama's largest single day lead so far.

[Kalimantan]

Saturday - October 10, 2008:

Obama - 52% (nc)
McCain - 40% (nc)

[Kalimantan]

Monday - October 13, 2008:

Obama - 52% (-1)
McCain - 40% (nc)