Canada 2011 Official Thread

[Hatman 🍁]

Wouldn't it be stupid for them to get rid of FPTP at a time where it would work in their favour if they are to replace the Liberals as the major leftwing party and could ultimately result in a NDP Majority government within a very reasonable amount of time? Yes, I'm being overtly optimistic here.

It would, tactically. The NDP is not really disadvantaged by FPTP except insofar as FPTP hurts smaller parties. Unlike the Lib Dems, the NDP is solidly on the left and thus not nearly as evenly distributed across the country. The Lib Dems could win more votes than Labour and still end up far back in seats, but the NDP would easily pass the Liberals in seats if they won more votes.

I see. So, if these polls play out and the NDP finish second, it's likely that Jack Layton will become Leader of the Opposition, right?

Presumably.

[2952-0-0]

Wouldn't it be stupid for them to get rid of FPTP at a time where it would work in their favour if they are to replace the Liberals as the major leftwing party and could ultimately result in a NDP Majority government within a very reasonable amount of time? Yes, I'm being overtly optimistic here.

It would, tactically. The NDP is not really disadvantaged by FPTP except insofar as FPTP hurts smaller parties. Unlike the Lib Dems, the NDP is solidly on the left and thus not nearly as evenly distributed across the country. The Lib Dems could win more votes than Labour and still end up far back in seats, but the NDP would easily pass the Liberals in seats if they won more votes.

I see. So, if these polls play out and the NDP finish second, it's likely that Jack Layton will become Leader of the Opposition, right?

Presumably.

But if the Conservatives are only in the minority, and especially if NDP+Liberal>155 (in which case the Conservatives will likely have lost seats), then in practice it will become extremely difficult for Harper to continue as Prime Minister OR Party Leader. Needless to say the Liberals will be embroiled in their second leadership race in two years.

[Hatman 🍁]

The Liberals will not form a coalition. Perhaps a working relationship like we saw in Ontario during the 80s (but in reverse). Either the Libs prop up Harper, or they prop up Layton. Or, if the NDP is in third, they prop up Iggy.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ontario_general_election,_1985

[Hatman 🍁]

Or howabout Ignatieff resigns, and their new leader (Rae or Trudeau) form a coalition.  I would be scared of being in a coalition with Prime Minister Bob Rae (that would benefit the Liberals a lot). I think the best coalition scenario for the Liberals if they were in third would be to be tje junior partner with Rae as Deputy Leader. That would benefit them the most (or hurt them the least).

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

There are so many issues with Teddy's map, I don't know where to start.

Vaudreuil-Soulanges voting Tory?
Saskatoon-Humboldt voting NDP before Rosetown-Biggar?
The Liberals picking up Churchill River?

The first is an error, the second two are correct on the math

Hmmm?

Saskatoon-Humboldt, 2008: CON: 53.8; NDP: 27.8
Saskatoon-Rosetown, 2008: CON: 45.4; NDP: 44.5

I fail to see how "the math" would have Humboldt fall first.

Same for Desnethe. 2008: CON: 46.7; LIB: 30.3

Are you really predicting a big swing from the Conservatives to the Liberals?

Pankiw

[Meeker]

Wikipedia:

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#winning

[MaxQue]

There are so many issues with Teddy's map, I don't know where to start.

Vaudreuil-Soulanges voting Tory?
Saskatoon-Humboldt voting NDP before Rosetown-Biggar?
The Liberals picking up Churchill River?

The first is an error, the second two are correct on the math

Hmmm?

Saskatoon-Humboldt, 2008: CON: 53.8; NDP: 27.8
Saskatoon-Rosetown, 2008: CON: 45.4; NDP: 44.5

I fail to see how "the math" would have Humboldt fall first.

Same for Desnethe. 2008: CON: 46.7; LIB: 30.3

Are you really predicting a big swing from the Conservatives to the Liberals?

Pankiw

I can't believe than more than 100 persons want to vote for that crazy drunkard!

[Verily]

Yeah... even if Pankiw pulled 20% straight from the Conservatives, the same percentage he got as an independent in 2004, when he was still relevant and somewhat sane, the Conservatives would win.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Pankiw's been an idiot for quite a while, and people still vote for him.

[Holmes]

Does anyone think the NDP has a shot at Oshawa? Always seems to be a squeaker with the incumbent, if some of the (decaying) Liberal vote there went to the NDP candidate... maybe?

[Verily]

Does anyone think the NDP has a shot at Oshawa? Always seems to be a squeaker with the incumbent, if some of the (decaying) Liberal vote there went to the NDP candidate... maybe?

Oshawa has been inching further and further away from the NDP each year. I doubt they can win it. Demographic trends are against them (fewer union workers as the jobs disappear, more exurban Toronto commuters).

[Linus Van Pelt]

Which actually brings me to what I think the NDP leadership should be considering... What if they really do win 15+ seats in Quebec?

For the NDP, that would be a sea-change in their caucus, and one that might not be easy for the party membership to deal with. After all, the party is traditionally small, and most MPs for the NDP get a fair amount of responsibility and power after a short time in office. I can see tensions arising between a new Quebec branch of the NDP (most of whom did not seriously expect to win office before this past week) and the rest of the party over internal matters as current MPs are reluctant to surrender power within the party to give the Quebec caucus a say in matters. Additionally, the NDP is mostly a monolingual party (with a couple of exceptions, but fewer than in the other parties)--the transition to having a large Francophone caucus, some of whom may not speak English well, will be another point of tension.

This isn't such a big deal in the other parties because they have larger caucuses outside of Quebec, but the NDP could be looking at having a third or even half of its MPs from Quebec, which creates the potential for real tensions.

Something to think about, anyway. The NDP leadership ought to be preparing not only for a larger caucus but for how to deal with tensions that will inevitably arise between the NDP old guard and Quebec MPs.

This, except I think you're missing the most important question: how nationalist are this new lot? If history is any guide I think the answer may in some cases be "quite".

Example: Alexandre Boulerice, the candidate in Rosemont-La Petite Patrie, claims the following on his blog (my translation):

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"le droit pour le Québec de se rétirer de tout programme fédéral avec compensation financière"! In other words any time Ottawa starts a new program and funds it, Quebec City can just declare it's not in force in Quebec but take the federal tax money anyway. It's a fiasco waiting to happen if a chunk of the caucus is actually seriously advocating this.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Rumours - stress on that word - of an Angus Reid poll showing the NDP on 30.

[You kip if you want to...]

Rumours - stress on that word - of an Angus Reid poll showing the NDP on 30.

Go, Jack!

(Should be noted that it's 35, 30, 22 apparently.)

New NDP ad aswell:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ag__Nvw_M68
Makes me feel like a LibDem, circa May 2010.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Makes me feel like a LibDem, circa May 2010.

Way to ruin the mood

[Leftbehind]

Imagine being able to propel a social democratic party, rather than a pretend social democratic party who then goes onto prop up one of the most right-wing governments in our history?

[Smid]

Sorry, haven't quite figured out quoting properly on the iPhone, so haven't been able to properly comment the past few days.

I find the spike in Francophones in South-Eastern Manitoba (Provincher and through to St Boniface) remarkable. I was also a little surprised by the large numbers in Northern Ontario, but that wasn't a massive surprise, given the proximity to Quebec and all, and same for Eastern Ontario, but the South-Eastern Manitoba results really stand out.

Some of the other results were interesting, too - the higher numbers in Northern Alberta (I assume that is because of the availability of jobs in the oil sector there?) and Welland?

I knew that Northern New Brunswick has many Francophones, but I didn't realise the numbers were quite that high! I mean, some of those Ridings have a higher proportion than parts of Southern Montreal!

[Hatman 🍁]

Someone doesn't know his Canadian french history!

St. Boniface is a francophone enclave in Winnipeg, and there are many old French settlements in Manitoba. One must remember, it was settled by the French (and the Metis). There is at least one French community in Alberta, and I think that's what you're seeing. Also, Northern Ontario has a lot of French pockets, and there are sizable French communities in Welland, Penetanguishene and in Essex County in Ontario.  In fact, I met a French guy yesterday on my trip to the Gatineau rally, who grew up in a French neighbourhood of Welland.

[DL]

Everyone take a very deep breath - latest Angus Reid poll:

Conservatives 35%
NDP 30% (!!!)
Liberals 22%

This is REAL!

[cinyc]

Everyone take a very deep breath - latest Angus Reid poll:

Conservatives 35%
NDP 30% (!!!)
Liberals 22%

This is REAL!

Aren't Angus Reid polls Internet polls?  And when was this poll taken?  I wouldn't trust any poll taken over the holiday weekend.

[Hatman 🍁]

Some more riding polls from Quebec. Still none showing an NDP lead, BUT

Jonquiere-Alma has the NDP within 6 points of the Tories. We have a star candidate there,  but that is a huge increase. I now predict we will win this seat (that makes 8 NDP seats I predict for Quebec). Meanwhile the NDP is 12 points behind the BQ in Chicoutimi, a distant third in Roberval and 27 points back in Richmond-Arthabaska (in a statistical tie with the Tories).

[Meeker]

I'm all for believing that the NDP is doing very well, especially in Quebec, but some of these numbers are starting to look downright ridiculous.

[Verily]

Everyone take a very deep breath - latest Angus Reid poll:

Conservatives 35%
NDP 30% (!!!)
Liberals 22%

This is REAL!

Aren't Angus Reid polls Internet polls?  And when was this poll taken?  I wouldn't trust any poll taken over the holiday weekend.

Angus Reid is... odd. They have generally overstated the Conservatives and NDP while understating the Liberals compared to other pollsters. However, this meant that, when all pollsters underestimated the Conservatives and overestimated the Liberals in 2008,* Angus Reid was the best pollster. They also did very well in the 2009 elections in British Columbia and Nova Scotia and the 2008 election in Quebec. I think they're fairly reliable.


*Not by much, but the polling consensus at the time pointed to a result like 2006 while the Conservatives ended up doing somewhat better than 2006 and the Liberals worse.

Also, lol: http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/inside-politics-blog/2011/04/dumont-to-duceppe-there-is-life-after-politics.html

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Post details people

I'm all for believing that the NDP is doing very well, especially in Quebec, but some of these numbers are starting to look downright ridiculous.

Oh, absolutely. But in Canadian elections the ridiculous does sometimes happen, so there's a better than... say... 10% (?) chance of it being 'real'. Of course the tradition is also for the NDP to loose support in the last week.

[Lief 🗽]

Post details people

I'm all for believing that the NDP is doing very well, especially in Quebec, but some of these numbers are starting to look downright ridiculous.

Oh, absolutely. But in Canadian elections the ridiculous does sometimes happen, so there's a better than... say... 10% (?) chance of it being 'real'. Of course the tradition is also for the NDP to loose support in the last week.

Though that's (presumably) because of strategic voting shifts, which wouldn't apply if the NDP really is (or, at least, the polls say it is) in second place, no?