Obama poll numbers in Fresno, CA and Louisville, KY

[Sbane]

So Obama's approval rating is higher than his disapproval rating in a county he won by a hair's breadth and this is supposed to be bad for him? And I do believe these results are for the metro area and the Louisville metro area consists of more than just Jefferson county.

[Sbane]

Sbane,

If the data is just for the Louisville metro area, then his overall numbers in the county are very likely much worse.  Obama would obviously poll stronger in the metro area than he would in the non-metro portion of the county.

I'd say his Louisville numbers are bad but you are right, his numbers in metro Fresno (though note my point above about his countywide numbers being worse than his numbers in the metro area) are not that bad.

But what to make of Palin's numbers in these two metro areas?

Please read this first. Click on Kentucky in the link.

As for Palin's numbers, they don't surprise me much. Places like Fresno and Louisville are her base so if she doesn't put up respectable numbers here she won't do better elsewhere. Some on this forum think Palin is widely unpopular and that she has no chance of winning the nomination but I do believe they are wrong. Though she will be a worse candidate in the general than either Romney or Huckabee.

[Sbane]

Actually the republican base is concentrated in smaller cities and towns (in addition to suburbs of larger metro areas), not rural areas since they don't have that many people to begin with. They may give the largest margins but that is not where the "base" is. Fresno and Louisville are the smaller cities where you would expect Palin to do well in. She won't be doing as well in traditionally republican areas like Orange county, NJ suburbs, Dupage county, Oakland county etc. I would think her approval rating is lower in those areas than you would expect for a republican. Plus the most damning statistic in both polls is the high numbers of people who don't want her to run in 2012. They may "approve" of her but it doesn't necessarily mean they want her to be president. Still as I said before, she is pretty underrated. She will do better than most expect.