The Race to Florida

[NHI]

The flop Governor Rick Perry gave rise to "Mr. 999" Herman Cain who lasted atop the leader board until a scandal brought him back down to Earth and out of the race. With the fads of Bachmann, Trump and Palin now a thing of the past, and Romney appearing more and more as a fragile frontrunner and general candidate, the time had finally come for a new entrance into the jumble that was the 2012 Presidential election.

After months of potential candidates declaring they would not run for office, the man many wanted and urged to run finally emerged from the backdrop to announce his candidacy in Des Moines, Iowa, less then one month before the Caucuses.

"Today I am announcing my candidacy to seek the Republican Nomination for President of the United States of America and I am doing so as a call to service, because I love this country and know that at this time our party must be victorious if we can put America back on a path of fiscal responsibility, accountability and greatness."

Iowa Caucuses Poll:
Bush: 33%
Romney: 24%
Gingrich: 15%
Santorum: 14%
Paul: 6%
Perry: 3%
Bachmann: 2%
Huntsman: 1%

The entrance of Jeb Bush into the race turned everything upside down. Despite the late entry, Bush rocketed to the top of the polls in Iowa, South Carolina and Florida, and left Romney holding down New Hampshire, albeit narrowly. The former Massachusetts Governor commended Bush on his service as a leader and a great statesman. In regards to Bush being his' latest challenge, the Governor only responded with, "We'll let the people decide who is best to lead our party."

Iowa:

Projected Winner

Results:

Bush: 37%
Romney: 20%
Gingrich: 16%
Santorum: 10%
Paul: 9%
Perry: 4%
Bachmann: 2%
Huntsman: 1%

Following the Caucuses Santorum, Perry and Bachmamn ended their campaigns. Santorum endorsed Bush, while Bachmann and Perry remained neutral, both wanting to see where the race went to after New Hampshire. In New Hampshire fragile frontrunner Mitt Romney held a narrow lead over Bush, but the day after Iowa, the Former Governor of Massachusetts found himself either on par or trailing Bush in the polls.

New Hampshire:

I think Romney's in trouble in New Hampshire. He's got Huntsman biting at his heels and Bush is ready to go in for the swing. Surely if he loses New Hampshire, even by a point he's done...

[NHI]

Projected Winner

Results:

Romney: 25.9%

Bush: 24.7%

Huntsman: 20.2%

Gingrich: 18.0%

Paul: 10.8%

Romney's pathetic win in New Hampshire did help him make the case of electability going into South Carolina. With Gingrich coming at him constantly and Bush trying to remain above the fray, the Former Governor of Massachusetts knew that unless he won South Carolina his campaign would be finished...

Results:

Bush: 33%
Gingrich: 25%
Romney: 20%
Huntsman: 11%
Paul: 9%

Huntsman bowed out of the race and endorsed Bush after conceding to a small crowd in Charleston. The following day at a rally in Miami Romney suspended his campaign and endorsed Jeb Bush for President, calling him a proven leader and the only one left in the race capable of beating Barack Obama.

Romney and Bush speak privately.

With Bush all but the official nominee everything seemed to be going according to plan, but Newt Gingrich, after reviving him campaign with a strong second place finish in South Carolina declared that the campaign would go on, citing, "We can't have another establishment pick lead our party into failure against Barack Obama in November!"

Florida Primary: Poll

Bush: 58%

Gingrich: 28%

Paul: 10%

"Do we want a real Conservative, a Reagan Conservative, or one who only panders to the base during the election, and then the second after the inaugural address they show their true colors as Democrats and work hand in hand to push the big government, big government, liberal agenda." We cannot let our party take this stand, because not only will we ensure four more years of Barack Obama, but should Governor Bush win he will be no different then Obama, in terms of policies and politics."

Bush wins home state easily; Gingrich presses on.

Bush won easily over Newt Gingrich, but the Former House Speaker pressed on vowing to take the fight to the Convention if need be. The two carried on the campaign Colorado, Minnesota and Missouri the week after. With Gingrich off the ballot in Missouri, Bush collected the majority of the delegates, while they split the results in Minnesota and Colorado. Bush taking Colorado and Gingrich Minnesota.

Minnesota:

Gingrich: 42%
Bush: 35%
Paul: 20%

Colorado:

Bush: 44%

Gingrich: 28%

Paul: 24%

Missouri:

Bush: 77%
Paul: 10%

Other: 13%

Despite only one win, and Bush dominating all the national polls, Gingrich remained in the campaign, hoping to pick up some of the southern states, as well as Arizona, and possibly Michigan.

Who do you want to be The Republican Nominee:

Bush: 60%

Gingrich: 35%

Gingrich v. Obama

Obama: 52%

Gingrich: 40%

Bush v. Obama

Obama: 47%

Bush: 45%

[Vote UKIP!]

Did I inspire this timeliness, by any chance?

[NHI]

Update coming soon.

[Jerseyrules]

Your timelines are always awesome!

[Vote UKIP!]

Your timelines are always awesome!

[Pingvin]

Your timelines are always awesome!

[RedPrometheus]

Your timelines are always awesome!

[NHI]

Maine:

Bush: 45%

Paul: 39%

Gingrich: 16%

In the battle for Michigan and Arizona, Maine held it's caucuses which Bush won easily against Gingrich, despite a strong second showing by Paul. In their final debate before the two crucial contests Paul, when asked, stated that he reserved the right to run as an third party candidate, but the all likelihood was rather slim.

"I never deal in absolutes, unless it's the Constitution, but I don't see that door being opened down the line."

With Gingrich trying to regain some momentum, Bush easily swatted his attacks and concentrated on his own message of. "Creating jobs and restoring the American economy." Gingrich trailed Bush by double digits in both Arizona and Michigan and all pundits declared that if Gingrich did not win one of the two states his campaign would effectively be finished.

"These are revolutionary like times and unless we want to see the decay of Washington and decline of America be presided over by someone who is about small dreams and low expectations, then I suggest we nominate a true, big idea conservative, who champions the vision of Ronald Reagan, and my friends I offer myself as that candidate."

In Michigan it was a landslide for Bush. Right after the polls closed he was declared the winner, defeating the hopes of a Gingrich comeback in the state. However, the results in Arizona were not as decisive...

Michigan:

Bush: 52%

Gingrich: 28%

Paul: 19%

Arizona:

Bush: 44%

Gingrich: 42%

Paul: 13%

Bush wins Michigan, Arizona too close to call. - AP. Ron Paul concedes Arizona and Michigan losses, but says he will remain in the race, because "it's about delegates". Party leaders are calling on Gingrich to bow out of the race, even with a win in Arizona. - AP. Pres. Obama campaigns in Michigan and Ohio tomorrow, to launch his proposals for job creation.

Finally at 12:32 AM, EST, a projection was made in the Arizona primary and in a shocking upset Newt Gingrich came out on top.

"Arizona proved to be the decider tonight. Our party does not want another Ivy-born, spoon-fed, moderate pick. In the land of Barry Goldwater, that voice of our party has come through and this campaign will and must go on."

Arizona:

Gingrich: 43.9%

Bush: 43.2%

Paul: 10.9%

Some Super Tuesday Polls:

Ohio:

Bush: 43%

Gingrich: 41%

Paul: 12%

Georgia:

Gingrich: 49%

Bush: 39%

Paul: 11%

Virginia:

Bush: 80%

Paul: 17%

Alaska:

Paul: 34%

Gingrich: 33%

Bush: 32%

Obama v. Bush

Obama: 43%

Bush: 47%

Obama v. Gingrich

Obama: 55%

Gingrich: 40%

Obama v. Bush v. Paul

Obama: 45%

Bush: 37%

Paul: 16%

Obama v. Gingrich v. Paul

Obama: 51%

Gingrich: 30%

Paul: 19%

Top Vice Presidential Picks:

Christie: 32%

McDonnell: 31%

Ayotte: 19%

Romney: 9%

DeMint: 3%

Thune: 3%

Gingrich: 2%

[Pingvin]

Wait, Bush can't pick Rubio! Please, fix it.

[Reaganfan]

I'd probably cry tears of joy if another Bush were elected President, especially if he served two terms. I just really came to like the Bush family throughout George W Bush's presidency.

I agree. I like continuity in politics.

Bush 1980
Bush 1988
Bush 1992
Bush 2000
Bush 2004
Bush 2016
Bush 2020

[Jerseyrules]

I'm frankly disgusted that Gingrich would invoke the name of one of my all time heroes like that.  Honestly, though, he would pull something like that.  Liking the TL!

[NHI]

Washington Caucuses:

Bush: 50%

Paul: 32%

Gingrich: 17%

Super Tuesday:

The first set of states of the primary night were an easy win for Bush. He scored large victories in Massachusetts, Vermont, and Virginia, where only he and Paul made the ballot. Though Gingrich set his sites on winning big in the south, as well as taking the Ohio primary, a state Bush seemed to have locked up.

Massachusetts:

Bush: 60%

Paul: 25%

Gingrich: 13%

Vermont:

Bush: 50%

Paul: 39%

Gingrich: 10%

Virginia:

Bush: 89%

Paul: 10%

Oklahoma:

Bush: 60%

Gingrich: 25%

Paul: 14%

North Dakota:

Bush: 77%

Paul: 13%

Gingrich: 9%

Idaho:

Bush: 80%

Paul: 10%

Gingrich: 9%

Tennessee:

Bush: 69%

Gingrich: 22%

Paul: 8%

Too Close to Call:

Georgia:

Gingrich: 44%

Bush: 43%

Paul: 11%

Ohio:

Bush: 45%

Gingrich: 41%

Paul: 12%

[Jerseyrules]

Liking this!

[NHI]

Gingrich will win Georgia!

[Though moments of hesitation did occur throughout the night, Gingrich pulled up a win in his old home state, giving him his first win of the night and the first since Minnesota. /i]

Georgia:

Gingrich: 45%

Bush: 42%

Paul: 11%

"I congratulate Speaker Gingrich on his win in Georgia tonight. Ohio remains undecided, but I'm confident we'll do well there tonight. I thank you all for your support and we'll carry on to the next batch of states."

Ohio:

Gingrich: 44.9%

Bush: 44.7%

Paul: 9.4%

Gingrich was finally declared the winner in Ohio, albeit narrowly over Jeb Bush. Gingrich declared his campaign was going on and that "We'll be the nominee in Tampa come August."

Kansas, Wyoming, US Virgin Islands, Guam, Alabama, Hawaii, Mississippi,

Gingrich was able to capitalize on his wins in Georgia and Ohio and went onto win victories in Kansas and Wyoming. Bush carried the US Virgin Islands and Guam. Three days later the candidates competed in two southern states and Hawaii.

Kansas:

Gingrich: 47%

Bush: 45%

Paul: 7%

Wyoming:

Gingrich: 38%

Bush: 37%

Paul: 22%

US Virgin Island:

Bush: 88%

Paul: 7%

Gingrich: 4%

Guam:

Bush: 90%

Paul: 6%

Gingrich: 3%

Alabama:

Gingrich: 48%

Bush: 44%

Paul: 7%

Mississippi:

Gingrich: 45%

Bush: 44%

Paul: 10%

Hawaii:

Bush: 49%

Paul: 30%

Gingrich: 20%

The results of March 10th and 13th did not shake Bush's frontrunner status, but certainly Gingrich was risen from the dead again, proving himself to be a strong contender to Bush. The focus shifted to the all important Missouri caucus, where delegates would finally be awarded. Bush originally led by a large margin, but with Gingrich's resurrection the polls began to tighten.

Missouri: Prior to the Gingrich Surge

Bush: 60%

Gingrich: 33%

Paul: 6%

Missouri: Post Gingrich Surge

Bush: 50%

Gingrich: 45%

Paul: 4%

"We're going to see the establishment crumble on March 17th. No more force-fed  moderate picks. It's time for a true conservative, worthy of Ronald Reagan. It's up to you, enough of the moderates, enough of the establishment. I'm running on big, bold, conservative ideas, not focus group tested, bumper sticker answers."

Missouri: Too Close to Call

Missouri:

Gingrich: 47.6%

Bush: 46.1%

Paul: 5.3%

"Quite shocking that Gov. Bush is trailing Gingrich, given that up until yesterday he was leading, I think Gingrich may pull it off." -- Dick Morris.

11:49 PM

Gingrich projected winner in Missouri Caucus

Missouri:

Gingrich: 47.8%

Bush: 47.0%

Paul: 4.9%

[Jerseyrules]

Go Jebby boy!

[Pingvin]

GO RON!
 
 

[Jerseyrules]

GO RON!

Ronny knows I still love him

[Niemeyerite]

I'm with the Grinch

[NHI]

Bush rebounded with a win in Puerto Rico, but all eyes shifted to the Illinois primary which was seen as a make or break deal. If Bush were to lose, then he'd be damaged going into the Texas primary. For Gingrich he needed to capitalize on Missouri and deliver a win.

Illinois: Poll

Gingrich: 48%

Bush: 40%

Paul: 11%

"I respect Speaker Gingrich, but he is not the choice we need to lead our party and defeat President Obama. He has a tendency of well...opening his mouth, and well the rest you can draw the conclusions to."

"The Establishment is running scared. Jeb Bush was dragged into this race as the white knight like candidate, someone who would rally the party base and yet he has not closed the deal. How about looking to the candidates who are running? Frankly, Governor Romney, a Massachusetts moderate would have been a better choice. Jeb talks the talk, but in terms of delivering on the contrast we need to draw with Pres. Obama he'll just fall flat and deliver us a rousing four years of Barack Obama. I will not stand by and let that happen. I'm going to fight to Tampa, but I don't think we'll have to, because we're going win Illinois and we're going to have an edge going into the convention and from there we'll drive Gov. Bush out of the race...I can't look at this any other, I'm going to be the nominee!"

Bush v. Obama:

Obama: 48%

Bush: 43%

Gingrich v. Obama:

Obama: 54%

Gingrich: 37%

Who do you support for the Republican Nomination?

Bush: 45%

Gingrich: 44%

Paul: 10%

Rasmussen Poll: Illinois

Gingrich: 50%

Bush: 40%

Paul: 9%

CNN Poll: Illinois

Gingrich: 46%

Bush: 44%

Paul: 9%

Illinois:

Illinois: 1% Reporting

Bush: 46%

Gingrich: 45%

Paul: 8%

[Niemeyerite]

IL should go for Newt.

[Vote UKIP!]

Go Jebby boy!

[NHI]

Gingrich Projected Winner in Illinois:

Illinois:

Gingrich: 46%

Bush: 44%

Paul: 9%

The Gingrich win in Illinois hurt Bush going into the Louisiana primary, which he lost to Gingrich by a substantial margin. With three crushing back-to-back-to back defeats, many wondered if Bush would be able to win the nomination...

Louisiana:

Gingrich: 54%

Bush: 41%

Paul: 4%

The focus shifted to the Texas primary which was seen as the crown jewel on April third. Bush led in both Maryland and Wisconsin, but the focus was on Texas, and with Gingrich showing no signs of slowing down he needed to act fast.

"It's quite clear who the nominee is going to be. I mean you just can't dismiss wins and say it was a fluke. The electorate is rejecting handpicked moderates." -- Newt Gingrich in Dallas, TX.

Texas: Primary Poll

Gingrich: 44%

Bush: 41%

Paul: 14%

Both Bushes campaign in Austin, TX the day before the primary.

Wisconsin:

Bush: 50%

Gingrich: 40%

Paul: 9%

District of Columbia:

Bush: 66%

Gingrich: 18%

Paul: 15%

Maryland:

Bush: 57%

Gingrich: 31%

Paul: 11%

While the results were unsure for the first few others, Jeb Bush managed to pull the upset he needed and defeated Gingrich in the crucial primary.

Texas:

Bush: 44.0%

Gingrich: 42.9%

Paul: 12.1%

Upcoming Primaries:

Connecticut:

Bush: 59%

Gingrich: 29%

Paul: 11%

Delaware:

Bush: 66%

Gingrich: 29%

Paul: 4%

Rhode Island:

Bush: 61%

Gingrich: 30%

Paul: 8%

New York:

Bush: 51%

Gingrich: 41%

Paul: 7%

Pennsylvania:

Gingrich: 46%

Bush: 46%

Paul: 6%

Even with Bush's win in Texas, concerns began to grow as the primaries dragged closer towards the end of April.

"If this continues much longer, we are handing Obama the keys to the White House again." -- Karl Rove.


"Bush is clearly the most electable of the two, but he is getting damaged by this fight." -- Michael Steele

"Bush needs to sweep the rest of the contests, otherwise we'll be looking for a new candidate by Tampa." -- Gov. Paul LePage, ME.

Obama v. Bush

Obama: 51%

Bush: 45%

Obama v. Gingrich

Obama: 59%

Bush: 37%

Obama v. Paul

Obama: 49%

Paul: 44%

Battleground States: Obama v. Bush

New Hampshire:

Obama: 50%

Bush: 45%

Ohio:

Obama: 47%

Bush: 45%

Colorado:

Obama: 50%

Bush: 46%

Virginia:

Bush: 52%

Obama: 45%

Iowa:

Obama: 48%

Bush: 46%

Pennsylvania:

Obama: 52%

Bush: 44%

Florida:

Bush: 53%

Obama: 44%

North Carolina:

Bush: 47%

Obama: 46%

Nevada:

Obama: 47%

Bush: 45%

New Mexico:

Obama: 46%

Bush: 46%

Arizona:

Bush: 49%

Obama: 45%

Michigan:

Obama: 50%

Bush: 45%

Wisconsin:

Obama: 50%

Bush: 45%

Battleground States: Obama v. Gingrich

New Hampshire:

Obama: 54%

Gingrich: 44%

Ohio:

Obama: 53%

Gingrich: 44%

Colorado:

Obama: 53%

Gingrich: 45%

Virginia:

Obama: 52%

Gingrich: 45%

Iowa:

Obama: 52%

Gingrich: 46%

Pennsylvania:

Obama: 52%

Gingrich: 44%

Florida:

Obama: 51%

Gingrich: 46%

North Carolina:

Obama: 52%

Gingrich: 45%

Nevada:

Obama: 55%

Gingrich: 42%

New Mexico:

Obama: 55%

Bush: 42%

Arizona:

Obama: 50%

Gingrich: 45%

Michigan:

Obama: 52%

Gingrich: 45%

Wisconsin:

Obama: 53%

Gingrich: 45%

Who Do you Support for the Republican Nomination?

Bush: 47%

Gingrich: 44%

Paul: 8%

Obama v. Bush v. Paul

Obama: 47%

Bush: 35%

Paul: 17%

Obama v. Gingrich v. Paul

Obama: 51%

Gingrich: 28%

Paul: 20%

[I'm JewCon in name only.]

Go Jeb!

Great timeline!

[Jerseyrules]

Go Jeb!

Great timeline!