Rasmussen Tracking Poll [Obama vs McCain]

[ChrisFromNJ]

Nice to see a bounce starting to appear. Hopefully it settles.

[ChrisFromNJ]

Maybe the beginnings of a slight bounce from the Middle East/Europe trip?

Well, according to Rasmussen:

In last night’s polling, 50% had already seen coverage of Obama’s Berlin speech. Initial reactions to the speech will be reported at 10:30 a.m. Eastern today.

Dave

Well, it look like people liked it by the polls, but Rasy is funny and may show people hated it so they can get on Fox News again.

Don't worry, he'll be on Sean Hannity's show tonight flaunting his latest polls about offshore drilling.

He's such a Republican hack.

[ChrisFromNJ]

What´s even more interesting: I don´t get how Obama is ahead by only 1% overall, if he´s getting 44% of the white vote, to McCain's 50%. Kerry got 41%, Bush 59%. Obama's getting higher shares among African-Americans and Hispanics. Is Rasmussen's sample 90% White ? Because on Election Day it will be 73-75% ...

Scott Rasmussen is cooking up the numbers so he can make his weekly appearance on the Sean Hannity show to flaunt off his numbers to Hannity's base.

[ChrisFromNJ]

All the negative media attention that Barack Obama has received... and he is still tied with McCain?

[ChrisFromNJ]

Just more proof that Scott Rasmussen is a Republican hack.

[ChrisFromNJ]

Where is the Palin bump that we were told we would see?

[ChrisFromNJ]

A Palin bump is there in the sense that it is a stall in the poll - mainly with Obama's numbers. If you expected a 5-8% Obama post-convention bounce well, you got that but take about a 3-4% bump for Palin so we are pretty much back to where this all started.

Or Obama got a standard 3-5% convention bounce and there was no Sarah Palin bounce.

[ChrisFromNJ]

While there isn't a weekend Obama bounce in Rasmussen, there might have been something related to Gustav.  You had 4 Republican states (probably close to 10% of the US population) where there was a lot evacuations due to to Gustav; that alone could account for it.

You're reaching


--------------------------------------------------------------> This far.

[ChrisFromNJ]

Samspade, good guess.  538 did an algorithm to figure out the exact (roughly) day-to-day numbers:

Why is Obama still leading in day by day tracking polls during the GOP convention when the inverse wasn't the same for McCain during the DNC convention?

[ChrisFromNJ]

McCain: 48 (NC)
Obama: 47 (-1)

[ChrisFromNJ]

I knew the poll wasn't favoring McCain when I didn't see it on the front page and Scott Ramussen wasn't saying on his website "OMG BREAKING POLL".

[ChrisFromNJ]

I see this race staying tied or close to tied until the first debate.

We keep waiting for that event that will decide this race. My guess is that his never happens. The race will be up in the air until election day.

[ChrisFromNJ]

McCain 49% (-1)
Obama 47% (nc)

Rasmussen agrees with Gallup again, and all is right with the world. (Except for the McCain lead.)

Now, it this with the new weighting.

Yesterday was with the new weighting too.

[ChrisFromNJ]

Keep in mind that Rasmussen doesn't show polling shifts to candidates as quickly as Gallup does. McCain's convention bounce is a good example of this.

[ChrisFromNJ]

Friday - September 19, 2008:

General: Head-to-Head

McCain: 48% (nc)
Obama: 48% (nc)

[ChrisFromNJ]

Interesting to see that the public thinks Obama is the better debater. I'd say they are about even, although I'd probably give Obama a slight edge if I had too.

Also I'm certainly looking foward to that VA update.

Maybe its not that they see him as a better debater, but that they see him as a better speaker overall, which they think will translate to the debate.

He is a better debater, but if I was in talking point campaign mode, I would say he wasn't, as to lower expectations.

Hillary is better than them both, and she made Obama look bad at times, but McCain would get owned in a debate by Hillary too.

[ChrisFromNJ]

So a huge Obama day rolled over the tracker and he still gained 3 points??

[ChrisFromNJ]

So a huge Obama day rolled over the tracker and he still gained 3 points??

He didn't gain anything. McCain lost one point.

You're right. For some reason, I was under the impression that the tracker said Obama +3 yesterday.

[ChrisFromNJ]

Rasmussen now says 46% of people think Obama is too inexperienced, up from 41% two weeks ago.

Rasmussen needs to throw some red meat to his far right base as Obama's poll numbers continue to rise.

Obama: 51 (+1)
McCain: 45 (NC)

[ChrisFromNJ]

Rasmussen changed his party ID weighting today to more favor the Republicans.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/mood_of_america/party_affiliation/partisan_trends

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[ChrisFromNJ]

Friday, October 3rd, 2008

Obama: 51 (NC)
McCain: 44 (NC)

[ChrisFromNJ]

One day's worth of one poll isn't enough to make a decision.

*faints*

J.J., what has gotten into you, my dear fellow?

[ChrisFromNJ]

.02% is the difference between 50 and 51 in this poll?

Let's not overreact, folks.

[ChrisFromNJ]

Well this makes ChrisNJ look foolish, which is a surprise to no one.

Rasmussen's state polls were terrible and had a McCain lean. I was right.