MT-AL: Rob Quist (D) vs. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Mark Wicks (L), May 25

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So in reddit, 1 of the Bernie folks conducted another google survey.

Raw results -

Quist - 48.5
Gianforte - 41.9
Wicks - 9.6

Age -

18-24
Quist - 45.9, Gianforte - 32.8, Wicks - 26.2

25-34
Quist - 56.3, Gianforte - 24.6, Wicks - 10.6

35-44
Quist - 44.3, Gianforte - 28.7, Wicks - 7.9

45-54
Quist - 50.9, Gianforte - 56.8, Wicks - 6.1

55-64
Quist - 55.8, Gianforte - 39.2, Wicks - 6.2

65+
Quist - 43.0, Gianforte - 70.3, Wicks - 7.9

Male -
Quist - 41.5, Gianforte - 51.1, Wicks - 11.5

Female -
Quist - 56.8, Gianforte - 31.8, Wicks - 9.6
Obviously not a great poll, but if Wicks is doing this good among young voters, I think Quist can make up this ground.

Also interesting that Quist is winning in most Google Surveys (which tend to be not so good) ! If Quist has this a lead with women or young voters, then he can definitely win !

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Quist while running an amateurish campaign has talked about local issues especially has made public lands his central theme. You can see someone like Ossoff who is running a totally different campaign (running against Trump with doubtful results) nationalizing which is clearly not the case with Quist !

Atleast he is working hard, doing rallies & knocking doors while Gianforte stays home, raises funds & doesn't meet the people much !

Trump Jr. - "We need more people in D.C. to help my father. The deck is really stacked. It's stacked against us — by the way, even from people in our own party — we've all seen that,"

“I know historically Butte’s sort of a very, let’s call it, a Reagan Democrat (town),” ”(But) based on the numbers, I’m going to call it a Trump Democrat town. ” The only jobs Quist has created are those for lobbyists, not real jobs for hardworking Americans"

Gianforte - “Rob Quist is Nancy Pelosi in a cowboy hat,”

http://www.sfgate.com/news/article/Trump-Jr-urges-support-for-Greg-Gianforte-in-US-11138962.php

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For 65+, the numbers add up to about 120%.

Yea that was probably 23 % or Gianforte at 50.3, probably a typo, will check !

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Montana is going to feel the Bern !

U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders will hold a free public rally in Missoula on Saturday, May 20 to support the campaign of Democrat Rob Quist for Montana's lone seat in the U.S. House of Representatives.

Sanders will be appearing at the Wilma Theater at 131 S. Higgins Avenue on his four-city swing through the state. Doors open at 10 a.m. and the rally will be from 11 a.m. to noon. Visitors need to RSVP by going to http://go.robquist.org/page/s/bernie-gotv-tour and clicking the RSVP link.

Sanders will also headline Saturday rallies at the Butte Civic Center from 3 to 4 p.m., and at the Billings Depot from 8:30 to 9:30 p.m. On Sunday, he will appear at the Union Building Ballroom in Bozeman from 11 a.m. to noon.

http://missoulian.com/news/local/bernie-sanders-to-campaign-for-rob-quist-at-the-wilma/article_0f0b39b0-9769-5b48-a71e-11cd431e807b.html

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How a Prairie Populist Could Redraw Montana’s Electoral Map

Former Governor Schweitzer sketched out the definition of prairie populism arguing that it meant “that we are a community as a whole and that there was a time for government to help … ” He called on Democrats to emphasize a shared need for effective transportation, public schools and public lands. Despite its wide libertarian streak, Montana is a state whose voters know it was the New Deal that saved farms during the Depression, that taxes built the interstate system in the 1960s, and that government-funded schools hold our small towns together.

If this sounds like the message that carried Sanders deep into the presidential primaries, that’s not an accident. That kind of message has deep roots in Montana. It goes back to former Senate Majority Leader Mansfield, who fought for the passage of the Civil Rights Act and opposed the Vietnam War, and Senator Wheeler, who ran for VP on the Progressive ticket in 1924. It goes back to the reformers in both parties who cast off the yoke of the Anaconda Copper Mining Co. in 1972 when they wrote one of the most progressive state constitutions in the nation.

http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2017/05/13/montana-special-election-rob-quist-democrat-215128

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A Populist Test in Trump Country

If Quist is able to come close—or even win—in a race Democrats haven’t topped since 1994, it would be evidence that supporting populist candidates might be Democrats’ best chance at regaining congressional seats in middle America. The race will function as a test of which party will benefit from the wave of populism that placed Trump in the White House and elevated Sanders.

Polling in Montana is scant, but one survey showed Trump’s approval rating in Montana fell from 53%  in late April to 48% a week later. Gianforte’s support has been similarly affected, with his margin shrinking from 13 points to eight. Since announcing his candidacy in January, he’s adopted some of Trump’s campaign slogans, saying that he’ll “make America great again” and “drain the swamp.” The state has Democrats in the governor’s mansion and one Senate seat, but statewide Democrat wins are often razor-thin and assisted by a third-party candidate collecting a few percent of votes. But if Quist’s populist strategy narrows the gap, the Montana race could highlight a path forward for Democrats in 2018.

Full Article - https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2017/05/in-montana-a-test-of-trump-country-populism/525834/

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Our-Revolution small donors funding bomb !

New reports were due at the FEC over the weekend detailing both candidates' fundraising between April 1 and May 5, during which time Quist raised $2.3 million, spent $2.4 million, and had $669,000 left ahead of the May 25 special election for Montana's lone congressional seat. Gianforte, meanwhile, brought in just $624,000, shelled out $1.5 million, and had $826,000 in his bank account.​

Since the start of the campaign in early March, Quist has raised $3.3 million—a stunning sum for such a short time and in such a cheap state—while Gianforte has taken in $2.3 million. The only reason he's been able to keep pace was by lending his campaign an additional $1 million during the most recent reporting period. However, Gianforte's also benefitted from far more outside spending: A recent tally by reporter Mike Dennison of local news station KTVH found that Republican groups, led by the Congressional Leadership Fund, have pumped $3.9 million to aid Gianforte while Democrats have spent just $632,000.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2017/5/16/1662607/-Morning-Digest-Rob-Quist-leads-Greg-Gianforte-in-fundraising-for-Montana-s-House-special-election



BTW Rob Quist has 2 new ads on Montana's public lands, one where he walks to Greg Gianforte's lands - Both blast Gianforte ! They are named  - Place & Against


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C5BaRkt30e8&index=6&list=PLESaX5w4uV1XkMohdjLnbIXxNc4MRnAXo

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dRMO-xjcmFw&index=7&list=PLESaX5w4uV1XkMohdjLnbIXxNc4MRnAXo

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In a new ad released Monday, Montana Democrats attacked Republican House candidate Greg Gianforte for trying to hide his support for the deeply unpopular health care bill passed this month by the U.S. House of Representatives. The ad cuts together clips of local TV news reports about Gianforte’s changing stance on the bill, along with ominous piano music. Less than one-third of the American public favors the health care bill, according to a HuffPost/YouGov survey published last week. A Fox News poll found similar results.

http://www.huffingtonpost.in/entry/montana-rob-quist-greg-gianforte-health-care_us_5919c48ce4b0031e737f5a64

Fantastic ad Titled "Two" highlighting Gianforte's stances on AHCA & that he is thankful that he got a tax cut on the backs of pre-existing conditions people !


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RbvSz1hJsQA

Btw Quist has managed to counter the gun thing well, his Defend ad has 59K views while Gianforte's ad has 14K views - Big difference !

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Campaigning 15-hour days, Quist got a push into politics from governor Schweitzer,  "Rob, you can do this. Who better than you to represent the state of Montana? You've been doing this all your life." Tester gave a shout-out at the annual Mansfield Metcalf Democratic Party dinner. "Stand up, Quist – would ya stand up? I want you to look at this guy," "He's a real Montanan, with real Montana values."  Quist says, "I've got guns that are much older than the number of years Gianforte has been in the state."

Gianforte's religious views are extreme. He's a creationist, and his foundation paid to install the tyrannosaurus exhibit at a local biblical "museum" that purports the Earth is only 6,000 years old and that dinosaurs not only lived among humans but were also passengers on Noah's ark. In a 2015 speech, he declared that "the concept of retirement is not biblical," pointing to the example of Noah. "How old was Noah when he built the ark? Six hundred. He wasn't, like, cashing Social Security checks. He wasn't hanging out. He was working."


http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/features/the-democrats-battle-for-montana-w482375

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Are you done repeating these talking points again? Or is the Quist campaign paying you for this?

Receiving millions, but on a more serious note, would like to see Quist win !

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Can Gianforte just behave himself for the next week? Doesn't he realize that if he loses, a BERNIECRAT gets elected? This is honestly getting a little scary.

Stop.

I'll stop when I feel like stopping.

I guess that means never. Neat.

It is kind of amusing that any politician with ties or support to Bernie Sanders can't be supported but you can support a radical extreme religious person that says dinosaurs were passengers of Noah's ark, the earth is 6000 years old, Social Security, Medicare & the concept of retirement is against the bible, who supports Trumpcare because it gives him & his billionaire friends 100's of Billions of $ in tax breaks.

Any1 but a Berniecrat !

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Ryan Zinke is a powerful lad - Look at the way he picked Karen Pence like a doll. Mike Pence continued watching as his wife danced with Zinke !

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SOWeufF9pMs

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More pics coming in - Quite a few people !

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Democrats win in Montana by narrow margins, Tester/Bullock by 4% odd & with seasoned well-liked politicians running a good campaign. If Quist sneaks out a victory it will by 1-3% points odd. This race was a Gianforte +5/6% & remains so unless there are some decent polls showing otherwise.

Special elections are all about turnout (& even normal elections to a lesser extent). The Kansas 04 seat from from being 25-30% R to 7% odd R thanks to high Dem turnout, so a seat like Montana could flip with very high Dem turnout (& solid independent support) !

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“These are difficult moments,” “Now is not the time to give up. Now is the time to fight back.” “Billionaires like Koch brothers have spent hundreds of millions of dollars to elect candidates who will support the wealthy and the powerful,” Sanders said. “Rob is turning his back on raising money that way. His average contribution is 25 bucks.” “That bill is one of the ugliest, most dangerous, most anti-American bills ever passed in the Congress,” Sanders said. “Can you imagine anyone supporting a bill that would throw 24 million Americans, including 70,000 people in (Montana), off the health care they currently have?”

http://missoulian.com/news/local/update-bernie-sanders-campaigns-for-quist-in-missoula-now-is/article_0477a339-e909-5c74-a453-493a192e08a9.html

“This election is a fight for the soul of Montana,” Quist began to boisterous cheers. “People like Greg Gianforte, when they see our mountains, our rivers and our streams, they probably think, ‘well that would be good to own.’ (hearty boos from the audience) ‘And fence in, and develop, but real Montanans would say ‘this is our way of life’.

http://newstalkkgvo.com/missoula-felt-the-bern-as-senator-bernie-sanders-stumped-for-fellow-democrat-rob-quist-at-um/

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Pictures from Butte, Billings rallies -

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Tester won by 0.9% in 2006, 3.7% in 2012, Walsh (Dem-Gov) won by 1.6% in 2012, Bullock won by 3.8% in 2016. At a time when Trump won the state by 20% odd, I highly doubt that Quist would have won by 6-7% , more like 1-4% odd at best. People exaggerate individual candidates issues & think ohh "X issue" will lead to the downfall & they have also exaggerated the faults of Quest's candidacy. This was always a Tilt R/lean R race & IMO Gianforte +3/4, unless there is some record high turnout, especially among college going young folks !

Amanda Curtis ran for the Senate in 2014 & lost by 17.7%. The campaign a novice 1st timer politician like Quist has run isn't necessarily a bad one. Also the Russian thing will barely have an impact. Look at Trump's approvals, barely has it changed, more than 90% of his voters are still comfortable with the choice, etc - The AHCA maybe will have some impact, no1 really knows how much !

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Either ways Trump's 80% approval among Hispanics is just hilarious. There are so many other aspects but this takes the cake, trying to validate what Trump says - He loves Hispanics & Hispanics love him !

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It's technically not bad, the likely voters gave a 43/40 odd to Gianforte, +3 is within the margin of error. If Quist pulls up an upset, they can claim it was always within the MOE. But it's fair to say that GOP is favored, Trump won by 20%, Dems barely squeeze in by 1-3% odd even with so-called great candidates & campaign.

What this will show is the AHCA impact - If Gianforte wins by 7-8%, then Dems have to have a multi-pronged strategy rather than relying only on AHCA - Sometimes you can't put all your eggs in 1 basket. Apart from Public lands, Quist went all in of Trumpcare with many ads, sharing stories of citizens, Trumpcare was a big part in the Bernie-Quist rallies.

I still think it is too early to say that one Trumpcare will cause a wave election in 2018 but if Quist wins or is within 1-2% odd, the GOP should be very worried for 2018 !

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@RobQuistforMT
Thank you @MichaelKeaton for the support in this election! Montana, side with Batman—vote this Thursday, May 25!

CBO Score coming - Can that really do much for Quist? He can't really run ads at this point !

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I was going to post a Gianforte +1/+2 prediction before all this & I am sticking to this unless there is massive Dem turnout in which case Quist would win.

If this would have happened 3-4 days earlier with constant publicity regarding this - How is the reporter? Is he filling charges? Gianforte's denial! This reporter's interview & all - Ultimately ending with focus on the CBO score, it would have been better for Quist.

This is the Republican party where a man can make racist comments all the time, brag about sexually assaulting women, say sorry & get away with it. Doubt a huge chunk of GOP voters will give a shi* about this !

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Why would Paul Ryan turn his back on Gianforte? He refused to do that publicly after Trump's tape bragging about sexual assaults. Both Handel & Gianforte are firm yes votes for Ryan & Trumpcare, that is why CFL is running so many ads & are spending so much money there !

Paul Ryan is getting a strong ally, he knows this will die down after a while !

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Why would Paul Ryan turn his back on Gianforte? He refused to do that publicly after Trump's tape bragging about sexual assaults. Both Handel & Gianforte are firm yes votes for Ryan & Trumpcare, that is why CFL is running so many ads & are spending so much money there !

Paul Ryan is getting a strong ally, he knows this will die down after a while !

I agree with Shadows here. If he wouldn't call out Trump's tape, why would he call out Gianforte's?

ryan DID call out trump's tape.

at that point he proclaimed, he wouldn't defend him anymore and every republican was on his own re: this question.

Ryan called Trump a racist after the Mexican judge comment on Trump University but after the sexual assault bragging tape, only said I won't defend him. That is it.

He is doing the same with Greg, 1 line of mild criticism & then is moving on. Kasich votes for McCain, Ayotte (who is Trump's stooge now) voted for Pence, McCain de-endorsed him, Collins never endorsed him. So these people were so-called independent voices, not Ryan !

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It sucks to have been prepared for a Gianforte win only to see it all come crumbling down the day before the election.

He has a good chance to win & then body-slamming celebrations will be a new thing !

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NYT

Greg Gianforte 36,113   51.4%   
Rob Quist        29,548   42.1%
Wicks                                6.5%

Lewis & Clark County -

Quist - 9975 - 52.8%
Gianforte - 7956 - 42.1%
Wicks - 5.1%

Deer Lodge County -

Quist - 1892 - 62.4%
Gianforte - 885 - 29.2%
Wicks - 8.4%

Billings (Yellowstone county) -

Quist - 27252 - 56.5%
Gianforte - 17681 - 36.6%
Wicks - 6.9%