Spanish elections and politics

[Mike88]

as "semi-local" mike said, could be an outlier but at some point, i guess, the PP is going to become strong enough cause all other options are more difficult.

Indeed. There are two important political question at the moment. The first is the budget. Spanish media have been saying that negotiations for this year budget are shaky and that Mr Rajoy doesn't know how it's going to end. The other one is the longshoreman crisis. Spain may have to pay a big fine to the EU if it doesn't solve the situation. C's abstained in parliament vote about this and the PP law failed. Don't know if this will have an impact in C's voting numbers. Let's see what happens.

[Velasco]

PSOE leadership:



Congress vote with the different PSOE candidates:

If Lopéz was leader:

29.8% PP
25.2% PSOE
19.8% UP
13.6% C's

If Sanchéz was leader:

29.9% PP
24.5% PSOE
17.8% UP
16.0% C's

If Díaz was leader:

29.7% PP
24.2% UP
18.9% PSOE
15.4% C's

Poll conducted between 7 and 15 March. Polled 1,010 voters. MoE of ±3.1%

Link.

Let me clarify things: only PSOE members or activists who are up-to-date with the payment of quotas are eligible to vote in the leadership contest or primary election. This poll measures the popularity of pre-candidates among voters ("votantes") and supporters ("simpatizantes"). Susana Díaz seems to be quite unpopular among them, probably because of her role in the coup d'ètat which dethroned Mr Sánchez. Sadly the contest is not open to such groups. Only the approx 180,000 PSOE members can vote and the chances of Mrs Díaz are higher among them. Anyway thanks for the updates, MIke88

Meanwhile, Rajoy government suffers a setback in parliament and threats with new elections:

http://elpais.com/elpais/2017/03/20/inenglish/1489999534_081492.html

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The government decree failed because C's wanted to take revenge of PP's disdain and little humiliations to them... and well, because the blue party doesn't want to enforce the agreements on corruption and transparency with the orange party.

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This was a little victory for Podemos in parliament, too.

[Zinneke]

Pregunta tíos, why have Ada Colau and Podem fallen out, only for her new party to join the Podemos national structure again?

http://politica.elpais.com/politica/2017/03/20/actualidad/1490015134_454408.html

[Former President tack50]

Pregunta tíos, why have Ada Colau and Podem fallen out, only for her new party to join the Podemos national structure again?

No idea, Podemos's coalitions are very heterogeneous. From what I've heard it might have to do with Colau&co. being more pro independence than Podem. (which is part of Podemos, which can't really defend independence because it's a national party)

[Mike88]

Susana Díaz presented today her candidacy for the PSOE leadership. In a rally in Madrid attended by more than 7,000 people and by many high profile PSOE leaders like Felipe Gonzaléz, J R Zapatero and others, Díaz said she wants put the PSOE back in the Spanish government and also achieve reforms and pacts with the PP and refuses that the PSOE should "imitate" Podemos.

[Mike88]

The CUP, Candidatura de Unidad Popular, a far-left anti capitalist party, tried to occupy the headquarters of the PP Catalonia in Barcelona. The youth wing of the party, barricaded themselves in front of the PP headquarters and tried to get in. The goal of the protest was to demand a referendum of Catalonia Independence.

The spokesperson of the party and lead figure in the party, Anna Gabriel, went to the scene to support the protest.



Regardless of their positions, these kind of acts are shameful.

[warandwar]

The CUP, Candidatura de Unidad Popular, a far-left anti capitalist party, tried to occupy the headquarters of the PP Catalonia in Barcelona. The youth wing of the party, barricaded themselves in front of the PP headquarters and tried to get in. The goal of the protest was to demand a referendum of Catalonia Independence.

The spokesperson of the party and lead figure in the party, Anna Gabriel, went to the scene to support the protest.



Regardless of their positions, these kind of acts are shameful.

Why are you expecting anti- capitalists to play by the ridiculous notions of what constitutes political activity in a capitalist society?

[MAINEiac4434]

The CUP, Candidatura de Unidad Popular, a far-left anti capitalist party, tried to occupy the headquarters of the PP Catalonia in Barcelona. The youth wing of the party, barricaded themselves in front of the PP headquarters and tried to get in. The goal of the protest was to demand a referendum of Catalonia Independence.

The spokesperson of the party and lead figure in the party, Anna Gabriel, went to the scene to support the protest.



Regardless of their positions, these kind of acts are shameful.

Why are you expecting anti- capitalists to play by the ridiculous notions of what constitutes political activity in a capitalist society?

Not to mention, if Spain would just allow a referendum, none of this would be happening.

[Mike88]

The CUP, Candidatura de Unidad Popular, a far-left anti capitalist party, tried to occupy the headquarters of the PP Catalonia in Barcelona. The youth wing of the party, barricaded themselves in front of the PP headquarters and tried to get in. The goal of the protest was to demand a referendum of Catalonia Independence.

The spokesperson of the party and lead figure in the party, Anna Gabriel, went to the scene to support the protest.



Regardless of their positions, these kind of acts are shameful.

Why are you expecting anti- capitalists to play by the ridiculous notions of what constitutes political activity in a capitalist society?

Not to mention, if Spain would just allow a referendum, none of this would be happening.

The problem is that the constitution bars any attempt that threatens the territorial union of Spain. To change that, i believe all autonomous regions must say yes to the constitutional change and that's not going to happen. It's a difficult situation to be resolved.

[Former President tack50]

The CUP, Candidatura de Unidad Popular, a far-left anti capitalist party, tried to occupy the headquarters of the PP Catalonia in Barcelona. The youth wing of the party, barricaded themselves in front of the PP headquarters and tried to get in. The goal of the protest was to demand a referendum of Catalonia Independence.

The spokesperson of the party and lead figure in the party, Anna Gabriel, went to the scene to support the protest.


Regardless of their positions, these kind of acts are shameful.

Why are you expecting anti- capitalists to play by the ridiculous notions of what constitutes political activity in a capitalist society?

Not to mention, if Spain would just allow a referendum, none of this would be happening.

The problem is that the constitution bars any attempt that threatens the territorial union of Spain. To change that, i believe all autonomous regions must say yes to the constitutional change and that's not going to happen. It's a difficult situation to be resolved.

No; autonomous regions don't have to ratify the change (in fact they play no role at all). The process to reform the constitution would require the "aggravated" reform process (equivalent to rewriting the constitution, though partial ammendments can also be proposed through this method) as it'd require repealing or ammending article 2:

The Constitution is based on the indissoluble unity of the Spanish Nation, the
common and indivisible homeland of all Spaniards, and it recognizes and guarantees the
right to self-government of the nationalities and regions of which it is composed and the
solidarity among them all.


To reform or repeal article 2 the following process must be followed:

• First the Congress of Deputies and the Senate must approve the ammendment by a 2/3 majority each
• Then both houses are dissolved and a new general election is called
• After the general election both newly elected houses must ratify the ammendment
• Finally a referendum in all of Spain is called (no special requirements, just more "yes" than "no" votes)

After that Catalonia could hold their referendum. Not like it matters as that process would basically require PP's approval, which they'd never give. Spain's unity and all.

In theory a non-binding referendum could be passed against the government's will with a PSOE+Podemos+ERC+PDECat+PNV abstaining, but again, PSOE would never opt for that, and I'd be surprised if Catalan nationalists were happy with a non binding referendum (I guess Congress could pass a binding one, then have it inmediately shot down by the constitutional court)

[Mike88]

Thanks for the correction, tack50

I wrote that about the autonomies because i recall reading an article that said Andalucia or Extremadura would never accept Catalonia independence because of their economic disadvantage from the rest of Spain. But i clearly misinterpreted.

Basically, there's no simple solution to this. Although i'm quite convinced that if such referendum was held, the no to independence would win. But that's just my hunch.

[Zinneke]

There is a fundamental contradiction in the Constitution though, in that it has allowed both Article 2 and the possibility of seperatists to win a majority in the Generalitat to co-exist. The separatist majority is as legal as Article 2.

[Former President tack50]

There is a fundamental contradiction in the Constitution though, in that it has allowed both Article 2 and the possibility of seperatists to win a majority in the Generalitat to co-exist. The separatist majority is as legal as Article 2.

It's not like there was an alternative. I think some countries do ban parties whose objective is independence, but Spain doesn't.

Also, Catalonia's flirt with independence is very recient. The Basque Country was the most pro independnece of the 2 traditionally.

Finally, there are regionalist parties that do not want independence. The best examples of this being the centre-right CC (Canary Islands) with 1/15 Canarian seats and the centre-left wing PRC from Cantabria (no seats, but they do hold the governor there)

[Zinneke]

There is a fundamental contradiction in the Constitution though, in that it has allowed both Article 2 and the possibility of seperatists to win a majority in the Generalitat to co-exist. The separatist majority is as legal as Article 2.

It's not like there was an alternative. I think some countries do ban parties whose objective is independence, but Spain doesn't.

Also, Catalonia's flirt with independence is very recient. The Basque Country was the most pro independnece of the 2 traditionally.

Finally, there are regionalist parties that do not want independence. The best examples of this being the centre-right CC (Canary Islands) with 1/15 Canarian seats and the centre-left wing PRC from Cantabria (no seats, but they do hold the governor there)

Agreed on all three points. I was trying to present the legal view of the Catalan separatists though, who believe that their victory in 2015 served the purpose of contradicting the legality of Article 2, and that any ruling by the Constitutional Court is skewered by the fact that the Senate, which is elected in a manner that favours the unionists, nominates the judges. Their last point is hardly illegitimate.

Convergencia voted with the Constitutionalists in the referendum IIRC, a look back on that

[Former President tack50]

Apparently things are slowly but surely progressing in Murcia. Maybe they'll get rid of the allegedly corrupt PP governor there after all?

Then again if they go to new elections either it's a hung parliament and there's another PP+Cs government, even if the governor might be judged for corruption, or it's a PP absolute majority (Murcia is very conservative, PP came within 1 seat of an overall majority)

A PSOE+Cs+Podemos government wouldn't last more than 10 minutes considering how much Cs and Podemos hate each other, and there's no way PSOE+Podemos gets a majority in Murcia

[Mike88]

Apparently things are slowly but surely progressing in Murcia. Maybe they'll get rid of the allegedly corrupt PP governor there after all?

Then again if they go to new elections either it's a hung parliament and there's another PP+Cs government, even if the governor might be judged for corruption, or it's a PP absolute majority (Murcia is very conservative, PP came within 1 seat of an overall majority)

A PSOE+Cs+Podemos government wouldn't last more than 10 minutes considering how much Cs and Podemos hate each other, and there's no way PSOE+Podemos gets a majority in Murcia

Indeed, the last poll for Murcia, from earlier this month, shows the PP gaining more than C's and PSOE and Podemos getting a lower result than in 2011:

39.1% PP
22.9% PSOE
12.9% C's
12.0% Podemos
 3.6% IU

The poll was made in the beginning of this scandal. Giving a big margin of error, due to Spain's not so accurate polls, could we be seeing parts of the electorate swinging to the PP because they want a more stable government, even thought the electorate knows they are sleaze?

[Former President tack50]

Apparently things are slowly but surely progressing in Murcia. Maybe they'll get rid of the allegedly corrupt PP governor there after all?

Then again if they go to new elections either it's a hung parliament and there's another PP+Cs government, even if the governor might be judged for corruption, or it's a PP absolute majority (Murcia is very conservative, PP came within 1 seat of an overall majority)

A PSOE+Cs+Podemos government wouldn't last more than 10 minutes considering how much Cs and Podemos hate each other, and there's no way PSOE+Podemos gets a majority in Murcia

Indeed, the last poll for Murcia, from earlier this month, shows the PP gaining more than C's and PSOE and Podemos getting a lower result than in 2011:

39.1% PP
22.9% PSOE
12.9% C's
12.0% Podemos
 3.6% IU

The poll was made in the beginning of this scandal. Giving a big margin of error, due to Spain's not so accurate polls, could we be seeing parts of the electorate swinging to the PP because they want a more stable government, even thought the electorate knows they are sleaze?

Probably, and I'd argue there was something similar to some extent between December 2015 and June 2016 at the national level(though lower turnout and Podemos losing a big chunk of voters were more important factors)

Interestingly though, Murcia actually reformed their electoral law in 2015, right after the regional election. Now they only have a single at-large constituency with a 3% hurdle, as opposed to the previous 5 constituencies with a 5% hurdle.

With the poll you posted, that would yield this parliament:

PP 20 (-2)
PSOE 12 (-1)
Cs 6 (+2).
Podemos 6 (=)
IU 1 (+1)

So, almost certainly a hung parliament. Back on the day PP could get the 48% or so required for an overall majority, but probably not now, especially not with such a candidate.

[Nanwe]

Apparently things are slowly but surely progressing in Murcia. Maybe they'll get rid of the allegedly corrupt PP governor there after all?

Then again if they go to new elections either it's a hung parliament and there's another PP+Cs government, even if the governor might be judged for corruption, or it's a PP absolute majority (Murcia is very conservative, PP came within 1 seat of an overall majority)

A PSOE+Cs+Podemos government wouldn't last more than 10 minutes considering how much Cs and Podemos hate each other, and there's no way PSOE+Podemos gets a majority in Murcia

Indeed, the last poll for Murcia, from earlier this month, shows the PP gaining more than C's and PSOE and Podemos getting a lower result than in 2011:

39.1% PP
22.9% PSOE
12.9% C's
12.0% Podemos
 3.6% IU

The poll was made in the beginning of this scandal. Giving a big margin of error, due to Spain's not so accurate polls, could we be seeing parts of the electorate swinging to the PP because they want a more stable government, even thought the electorate knows they are sleaze?

Probably, and I'd argue there was something similar to some extent between December 2015 and June 2016 at the national level(though lower turnout and Podemos losing a big chunk of voters were more important factors)

Interestingly though, Murcia actually reformed their electoral law in 2015, right after the regional election. Now they only have a single at-large constituency with a 3% hurdle, as opposed to the previous 5 constituencies with a 5% hurdle.

With the poll you posted, that would yield this parliament:

PP 20 (-2)
PSOE 12 (-1)
Cs 6 (+2).
Podemos 6 (=)
IU 1 (+1)

So, almost certainly a hung parliament. Back on the day PP could get the 48% or so required for an overall majority, but probably not now, especially not with such a candidate.

Depends on who the PP candidate would be after the election, no? C's won't want to govern with PSOE and Podemos (or IU), but it would be a huge problem for them if they support Pedro Antonio Sánchez. A friend from Murcia says the main reason why Sánchez doesn't go is because Válcarcel (former Murcia President) has too many things to cover that could go public if Sánchez speaks or something along those lines.

[Former President tack50]

Apparently things are slowly but surely progressing in Murcia. Maybe they'll get rid of the allegedly corrupt PP governor there after all?

Then again if they go to new elections either it's a hung parliament and there's another PP+Cs government, even if the governor might be judged for corruption, or it's a PP absolute majority (Murcia is very conservative, PP came within 1 seat of an overall majority)

A PSOE+Cs+Podemos government wouldn't last more than 10 minutes considering how much Cs and Podemos hate each other, and there's no way PSOE+Podemos gets a majority in Murcia

Indeed, the last poll for Murcia, from earlier this month, shows the PP gaining more than C's and PSOE and Podemos getting a lower result than in 2011:

39.1% PP
22.9% PSOE
12.9% C's
12.0% Podemos
 3.6% IU

The poll was made in the beginning of this scandal. Giving a big margin of error, due to Spain's not so accurate polls, could we be seeing parts of the electorate swinging to the PP because they want a more stable government, even thought the electorate knows they are sleaze?

Probably, and I'd argue there was something similar to some extent between December 2015 and June 2016 at the national level(though lower turnout and Podemos losing a big chunk of voters were more important factors)

Interestingly though, Murcia actually reformed their electoral law in 2015, right after the regional election. Now they only have a single at-large constituency with a 3% hurdle, as opposed to the previous 5 constituencies with a 5% hurdle.

With the poll you posted, that would yield this parliament:

PP 20 (-2)
PSOE 12 (-1)
Cs 6 (+2).
Podemos 6 (=)
IU 1 (+1)

So, almost certainly a hung parliament. Back on the day PP could get the 48% or so required for an overall majority, but probably not now, especially not with such a candidate.

Depends on who the PP candidate would be after the election, no? C's won't want to govern with PSOE and Podemos (or IU), but it would be a huge problem for them if they support Pedro Antonio Sánchez. A friend from Murcia says the main reason why Sánchez doesn't go is because Válcarcel (former Murcia President) has too many things to cover that could go public if Sánchez speaks or something along those lines.

No idea about that, but if PP are willing do drop Sánchez (the national branch have actually told them to do so, but the regional branch refuses) the Cs+PP pact will start again. If not, hung parliament and repated elections until either PP drops their candidate, PSOE+IU+Podemos get a majority, or PP gets a majority.

[Former President tack50]

Also, there is finally a date for the PSOE primaries. Here's the calendar:

20th April-4th of May: Candidates collect signatures to become formal candidates
28th of April: Census closes
21st of May: the day people vote

Also, the governor of Castille La Mancha has said he and many others will link their future to the result of the primaries.

After that I am hoping Sanchez wins in a landslide, if only to see their reaction XD

[DavidB.]

Could anybody tell me something about the relationship between C's and the far right? I read something about it and found it incredibly weird that any far right person would be attracted to them.

[ApatheticAustrian]

Could anybody tell me something about the relationship between C's and the far right? I read something about it and found it incredibly weird that any far right person would be attracted to them.

there isn't a strong far-right party in spain and if you are "against the system" and not an enemy of "socialism" (whatever), i guess a case for - like we say over here - a crossover-alliance could be made.

[Zinneke]

Could anybody tell me something about the relationship between C's and the far right? I read something about it and found it incredibly weird that any far right person would be attracted to them.

If you understand why the Flemish consider Défi/FDF far right, then you maybe there have the closest analogy I can find.

[Nanwe]

Could anybody tell me something about the relationship between C's and the far right? I read something about it and found it incredibly weird that any far right person would be attracted to them.

It's not. But like UPyD, the party is not terribly favourable to decentralisation (although C's not as much as UPyD) and in Spain centralisation is very strongly associated to the right-wing, so a party that does not support the status quo but even talks of revoking certain regional powers (like the concierto in Navarra and the Basque Country) is perceived as to the right of the PP in those parts. The exception being Catalonia for obvious reasons.

Also, in the case of Galicia, it did not help that they picked as candidate a women tied to the very right-wing Interconomía/Libertad Digital media group.

In any case, people who you would usually consider far-right are usually loyal voters of the PP, even if they are not too happy to vote for 'Maricomplejines' Rajoy. The PP makes sure not to allow the growth of any party to its right.

[Former President tack50]

Could anybody tell me something about the relationship between C's and the far right? I read something about it and found it incredibly weird that any far right person would be attracted to them.

It's not. But like UPyD, the party is not terribly favourable to decentralisation (although C's not as much as UPyD) and in Spain centralisation is very strongly associated to the right-wing, so a party that does not support the status quo but even talks of revoking certain regional powers (like the concierto in Navarra and the Basque Country) is perceived as to the right of the PP in those parts. The exception being Catalonia for obvious reasons.

Also, in the case of Galicia, it did not help that they picked as candidate a women tied to the very right-wing Interconomía/Libertad Digital media group.

In any case, people who you would usually consider far-right are usually loyal voters of the PP, even if they are not too happy to vote for 'Maricomplejines' Rajoy. The PP makes sure not to allow the growth of any party to its right.

Yeah. The closest thing to a far-right party is VOX, which came within 1500 votes of getting a seat in the 2014 European Parliament elections (got 1.57% of the vote), but since then they've gone downhill fast. Currently they have 0.2% of the vote and only 22 councillors in town halls (out of more than 67 000).

There might be demand for a party further right than PP, and a poll found out that if former Prime Minister Aznar (a Rajoy critic from the right) founded his own party and ran again he would get up to 15% of the vote and 51 seats. (coming in 4th; behind PP, PSOE and Podemos, but above Cs).

However Rajoy and the PP seem to be very good at avoiding the formation of far right parties, probably appealing to "if you don't vote for us Podemos wins so vote tactically for us". Had VOX kept their results from 2014, they'd have 1 seat for Madrid (they got 3.7% of the vote there)