Italy 2013: The official thread

[Antonio the Sixth]

As for the Senate battle, even with LN not running with PdL, could PD really get Lombardy or Veneto?

I remember seeing a poll for the Lombardia regional election (naturally, it might not be representative of the Senate election) showing a very close fight if Lega and PdL allied and an easy win for the left if they ran separately.

[Leftbehind]

Latest poll by German firm Wahlfieber...

PD - 32.4%
M5S - 15%
VTR (Monti) - 14.2%
PdL - 13.3%
SeL - 6.9%
LN - 4.5%
Others - 15%

It would have been nice if "Others" was broken down to see where UdC, IdV, etc. stand.

Wahlfieber isn't a poll though. It's the German version of Intrade.

Oops! It was listed in the polling section of the Wiki page. Someone might want to remove that...

Yeah, they should remove it. It's kinda strange that they think a German company would poll an Italian election ... Unless this Wahlfieber company actually did (?) Maybe they commissioned a poll ? I have to check this ... Do you have the link, Phil ?

I did find it odd that a German company would poll the election. Then again, considering the impact that this could have on Europe, it isn't that crazy.

http://wahlfieber.de/de_du/markt/ITA-2013--parlamentswahlen-in-italien-2013/

YouGov have polled the French election.

[Keystone Phil]

As for the Senate battle, even with LN not running with PdL, could PD really get Lombardy or Veneto?

I remember seeing a poll for the Lombardia regional election (naturally, it might not be representative of the Senate election) showing a very close fight if Lega and PdL allied and an easy win for the left if they ran separately.

Yeah but that could be in response to the Formigoni scandal. I don't know how much that will affect the parliamentary elections though it obviously doesn't help things.

[minionofmidas]

Oh, the irony of Tender not knowing that it's an Austrian firm...

How would I know it if it was a ".de" domain in your link ?

It just goes to show how obscure this thing is.

It's 'ironic' (not really) because of your encyclopedic knowledge of American pollsters.

[Keystone Phil]

It's ironic because Tender knows every single thing that's Austrian. Hiding behind the .de isn't an excuse to not know.

Ok, that's as far as I'll allow this glorious thread to be Austrianized.

[Andrea]

Rosy Bindi is second in Reggio Calabria's  PD MP selection. Way above the third (she basically run in a male-female ticket with the regional councillor who topped the poll with a couple of hundreds more votes than her).

Still no figures from Naples but Bassolino's wife is out. Cazzolino (Bassolino's pupil) pushed for another woman who came out on top.

As for the Senate battle, even with LN not running with PdL, could PD really get Lombardy or Veneto?

I remember seeing a poll for the Lombardia regional election (naturally, it might not be representative of the Senate election) showing a very close fight if Lega and PdL allied and an easy win for the left if they ran separately.

Yeah but that could be in response to the Formigoni scandal. I don't know how much that will affect the parliamentary elections though it obviously doesn't help things.

In 2008 in Lombardy, at the Senate, PdL polled 34.4% and Lega 20.7%
PD got 28.2% and Di Pietro 3.8%. I suppose PD+SEL should be in low 30s. And I think it could be enough to carry the region if PdL and Lega run separately

[Keystone Phil]

Yikes. I didn't realize the Traitors got 21% in the region. That's alarming.

[minionofmidas]

Yikes. I didn't realize the Traitors got 21% in the region. That's alarming.

34%.

[Keystone Phil]

Yikes. I didn't realize the Traitors got 21% in the region. That's alarming.

34%.

Funny, funny.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Funny how PdL got a lower score in Lombardia than nationwide in 2008. Lega really siphoned a lot of votes...

[Keystone Phil]

Have any recent polls shown a regional break down?

[Antonio the Sixth]

I've seen no poll that does that, so far.

At least a North/Centre/South+Islands breakdown could be interesting.

[Franknburger]

Is anybody out there who could lift my understanding of Italian politics above the stereotypical "a few larger parties, usually corruption prone and with mafia links, plus dozens of small parties, mostly with a half-life period of less than ten years" image?

For a start, it would be nice to get a delineation of major political groups, their key issues and geograhic / demographic base. [You can skip the Neofascist / Berlusconi / Lega Nord part, I am comparatevely well aware of that, even though learning more about their geographic base might still be interesting].

[Leftbehind]

I'd recommend going back to the first page; Antonio furnished us with a fair bit of info then.

[RodPresident]

Any conversations about Levi-Montalcini replacement in Senate?

[Franknburger]

I'd recommend going back to the first page; Antonio furnished us with a fair bit of info then.

I apologise for my lazyness in reading the thread from the beginning, and thumbs-up to Antonio for his excellent work!

My takeaways from the initial pages (sorry for mumbling to myself):
1. Italian politics still continues to be driven by personalities, rather than issues (in which it is more comparable to France than, say, countries like the UK, Germany or Spain).
2. Trying to get some structure into the Italian party landscape, it may be grouped like this (I take German parties as reference framework, since this is what I am best acquainted with):
 PD- Social democrats (at their worst German meaning, i.e. somewhere left of center, but without clear direction, and lacking charismatic leadership)
 PdL, VTR, LN, UDC - conservative (christian democratic) in various shades, in most cases more divided by personal rivalry than on issues
 SEL - some kind of amalgam of Greens and The Left (in a way I don't understand, but - on the other hand - is there anybody outside Germany understanding why Greens and Die Linke in Germany will never come together..)
 Grillo/MSS - Italian version of the Pirates (young, urban, anti-establishment, 'let us unite on direct democracy/Internet freedom, everything else we discuss later')
 Orange Movement, IDV - specific Italian, located somewhere close to the left wing of the German FDP and the right wing of the German Greens.

Still, I would love to learn more on the geographical base of all these parties. E.g., on a holiday trip a few years ago I discovered that Apulia is quite different from the stereotypical Mezzogiorno, and I am curious how that plays out politically.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The PD is basically the old Communist Party minus it's left wing, but plus the left wing of the old Christian Democrats.

Anyways, quite a few maps here: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=79927.0

[Keystone Phil]

Still, I would love to learn more on the geographical base of all these parties. E.g., on a holiday trip a few years ago I discovered that Apulia is quite different from the stereotypical Mezzogiorno, and I am curious how that plays out politically.

For a very basic rundown:

The north is PdL's stronghold (especially Lombardy, Veneto and Piedmont). PdL also did well in the southern regions of Campania, Apulia (making Vendola's terms in office even astounding but that's a whole different topic. He got awfully lucky especially the second time around) and Sicily. Lazio (which I wouldn't count as southern. It really depends on who you ask) is also good for PdL. We'll see how much regional scandals in Lombardy and Lazio hurt the party though. That's not to mention taking into account the crash they've experienced on the national level.

PD obviously does best in the "Red Quadrilateral"(Emilia-Romagna, Tuscany, Marche and Umbria) and the southern region of Basilicata.

Lega Nord's base is...well...you know. Their best regions are Veneto and Lombardy. Piedmont and  Friuli-Venezia Giulia also show LN decent support.

UdC does best in southern regions. Shouldn't surprise anyone.

[Iannis]

I'd recommend going back to the first page; Antonio furnished us with a fair bit of info then.

I apologise for my lazyness in reading the thread from the beginning, and thumbs-up to Antonio for his excellent work!

My takeaways from the initial pages (sorry for mumbling to myself):
1. Italian politics still continues to be driven by personalities, rather than issues (in which it is more comparable to France than, say, countries like the UK, Germany or Spain).
2. Trying to get some structure into the Italian party landscape, it may be grouped like this (I take German parties as reference framework, since this is what I am best acquainted with):
 PD- Social democrats (at their worst German meaning, i.e. somewhere left of center, but without clear direction, and lacking charismatic leadership)
 PdL, VTR, LN, UDC - conservative (christian democratic) in various shades, in most cases more divided by personal rivalry than on issues
 SEL - some kind of amalgam of Greens and The Left (in a way I don't understand, but - on the other hand - is there anybody outside Germany understanding why Greens and Die Linke in Germany will never come together..)
 Grillo/MSS - Italian version of the Pirates (young, urban, anti-establishment, 'let us unite on direct democracy/Internet freedom, everything else we discuss later')
 Orange Movement, IDV - specific Italian, located somewhere close to the left wing of the German FDP and the right wing of the German Greens.

Still, I would love to learn more on the geographical base of all these parties. E.g., on a holiday trip a few years ago I discovered that Apulia is quite different from the stereotypical Mezzogiorno, and I am curious how that plays out politically.

No, I think you didn't get very well the situation, but it's not your fault, Italy's politics is a messy, especially recently, after 15 years of stability (in italian terms...) there is a major "shaking".
So now, for next elections we have:

PD: socialdemocratic, with a pragmatic and not utopistic agenda, in primaries Bersani prevailed with his more Hollande-like position over Renzi's liberal-blairian ones.
SEL: PD ally, former communist, socialist ecologist agenda, in favour of more social spending, state intervention, gay rights, etc, European left in general

 Together with PSI (socialist) and API (centrists) they are the leftist coalition for BErsani's premiership

Then we have
UDC: christian democratic party, with roots in former ruling DC, close to german CDU, with more clientelism, especially in the South but in the last year supported more than others Monti's austerity
ItaliaFutura/Lista Monti: it will be the liberal/centrist list of Mario Monti, inspired to Economist's True Progressivims, so liberal policies with strong reforms of welfare state, to make country more productive, even with unpopular policies, europeist attitude
FLI: Fini's party, it split from Berlusconi's PDL, rightist-liberal party, now very small

With maybe other parties and/or personalities from PD and PDL they are the coalition that will support Monti's premiership

Then
PDL: Berlusconi's party you already know, now stressing on anti-austerity, anti-taxation, also euroskeptic, I think it's now closer to austrian FPO or UK UKIP and euroskepitc Tories
Destra (Right): natianalist, very conservative party, with roots in post-fascist MSI and AN

Together with Grande Sud (southern local party) they will probably support Berlusconi's premiership

Lega Nord: you already know, populist party in favour of retaining taxation in his own region, anti-immigration, it seems difficult they will form again an alliance with Berlusconi

M5S: Grillo's movement, a bit like german Pirate party, with populist elements

Arancioni: Greens, communists, Di Pietro, it's radical left alliance, for an alternative economy, and anti-corruption issues, to the left of SEL, they will support Ingroia for premiership

[Antonio the Sixth]

Yeah, Iannis is right in terms of political groupings. To simplify, the Italian landscape is split into 4 main poles:
- The "institutional" center-left, led by PD and supported by SEL and a few minor parties. They have been holding easy leads in polls for years now.
- The old Berlusconian right - basically PdL, accompanied by Storace's La Destra and by La Russa's new party "Fratelli d'Italia". It is yet unclear whether the Lega will join them, but Maroni seems to be leaning toward running alone.
- The centrist constellation, which is an utter mess. Here we have UDC, FLI, API (the now defunct "third pole"), plus Montezemolo's new fad, a few other parties with stupid name. All these guys have gotten behind Monti, which will run his own list for the House (on the Senate, there will be a common "Monti list" gathering all these guys).
- M5S, which is basically telling every other party to f**k off.

Ingroia and the "Oranges" stand somewhere between PD and M5S, but probably won't manage to ally with any of them. Anyways, they are mostly irrelevant electorally speaking.

[Iannis]

I had forgot Fratelli d'Italia, Berlusconi's split-off and ally.
I signal that API will be Bersani's ally with the list "Centro Democratico".
Monti's list will be present also in Chamber of deputies, it will be the Italia futura list, that will adopt a name with "Monti" inside.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I had forgot Fratelli d'Italia, Berlusconi's split-off and ally.
I signal that API will be Bersani's ally with the list "Centro Democratico".
Monti's list will be present also in Chamber of deputies, it will be the Italia futura list, that will adopt a name with "Monti" inside.

Sorry, thanks for the correction.

[Andrea]

It looks like we got rid of D'Antoni and Garavaglia through the PD primaries.
Other incumbents on their way out or struggling in many areas. None of them were national names though.
Finocchiaro won Taranto.

[Keystone Phil]

Just so I understand, candidates file for the Primary in constituencies that aren't necessarily where they live by orders of the party leadership (or, if they're renegades or party leaders themselves, wherever they want)? Can they vote in that constituency in the Primary and General or do they have to vote where they actually live if they live in another constituency?

[Iannis]

Just so I understand, candidates file for the Primary in constituencies that aren't necessarily where they live by orders of the party leadership (or, if they're renegades or party leaders themselves, wherever they want)? Can they vote in that constituency in the Primary and General or do they have to vote where they actually live if they live in another constituency?

I think that the place where they live is not important at all for the candidacy. But everyone has to vote where they live.