Labour Party (UK) Leadership Election, 2016

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Well there aren't many policy differences because there aren't many policy differences within Labour at the moment. None of this is about policy. This isn't the 1980s when there was a genuine division between those who supported a command economy and those who did not. This isn't even the Blair era when there were those who supported socialism via the free market and those who were sceptical.

But of course it's true that this has mostly turned into a referendum on the incumbent which, given Labour Party culture, makes a challenge a very tall order.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

What exactly does the Labour membership want right now?

The membership is not a hivemind. It also isn't a constant: people come and come and this changes its political complexion. By this time next year I anticipate absurd nationwide branch stacking by all factions. Joy.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

What? She was always an obvious also ran.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Are we going to talk about the UB40... thing... all aspects of it... or are we all going to look down at our shoes in a sheepish and embarrassed manner? I think the latter makes the most sense.

Anyway the vote in the PLP on ShadCab elections was passed 169 to 34. It will now go to the NEC. If approved there it will then go to Conference.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Ah but the Shadow Cabinet does not function as the Cabinet does. All they have to do is oppose the Cabinet. Awkward but theoretically workable and similar situations (if not as extreme and with rather more capable Leaders) have occurred in the past.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Then show us the evidence that the non-Corbynites are ready to flee for the Lib Dems, much less the Cons.

Most would rather stick their hands in a rusty meat grinder than do either. The real concern is that activists may be less active and longterm members may be less likely to temporarily be activists at election time. The masses of post-2015 members having not exactly shown much enthusiasm for such things...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I think much of the discussion on the supposed downfall of labour is greatly exaggerated, they're only polling a couple points below their 2010 and 2015 levels, and even with a loss of seats in 2020 a government in 2025 is certainly attainable with May likely to lose some popularity and labour being led by someone halfway competent

But 2015 was a bad defeat. And the purpose of the Labour Party is to form Labour governments. Yeah there's no existential threat to the Labour Party but that doesn't mean the present situation isn't absolutely appalling.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

That's just Pauline Kael syndrome, but sure that 'politics isn't about winning elections' thing is the preserve of the man who runs Momentum rather than its members.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

So it seems that Channel 4's Dispatches programme has done a piece on Momentum to be broadcast on Monday. For those who are not aware Dispatches does investigative journalism and is particularly well know for its use of undercover reporters.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Quality trolling by parts of the PLP here...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

In all fairness this has proved that Labour are absolutely awful at getting rid of awful leaders. Even faced with someone who is the most incompetent labour leader our party failed to get rid of him

The PLP have learned that usual practice is not the same thing as a rule unless written down, a lot on the Left are starting to learn (or re-learn) that the Labour Party is not a mass membership organisation but a series of recognised interest groups linked together by committees.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

For the talk of electability, labour probably lost more votes because of the leadership election, with the Owen Smith coup (or campaign) against Corbyn, then when Corbyn was actually leader before the EU referendum, to which Corbyn, leading the party was par with the 2015 eleciton results, sometimes beating the 2015 election results in polls.

This isn't actually true. Since the referendum Labour have been polling at around 30% (with a few down towards 26% and a few up towards 34%). Before the referendum Labour were polling at... around 31% (with a few down to 27% and a few up to 35%). There has been basically no change to Labour's polling position all year.

Of course 'beating the 2015 result' is not impressive because that result was sh!t.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

There's been some vague speculation about Angela Rayner who on the face of it would make rather more sense than those two mentioned just now.

Not that there's much point in predicting much. There's a twisted argument that we should hope that the sheer misery of the impending continued impasse might ultimately be productive, but given the lack of thought shown by both the Leadership and large sections of the PLP over the summer let us not be too hopeful.

The fundamental difficulties are these: 1. the Leader cannot actually impose his will on the wider Party because the Leader is not actually a powerful post under The Rules, 2. those same Rules (combined with Party culture) make it very difficult for the PLP to remove the Leader.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

We're basically in the same position we were 360 odd days ago right?

Almost but not quite: both the Leadership and the PLP are weaker and less credible. Hooray.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Very little change on last year, which given the alternations to the membership likely means some deterioration amongst longterm members (who o/c are the overwhelming majority of activists) - not healthy.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

A lot of important Conference votes upcoming yeah. If an elected ShadCab does happen that also means less NEC votes for the Leadership, incidentally.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Some important news, perhaps more important than the results: Unison (core group swing vote) have come out very strongly against factional deselections.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

What I don't think the Corbynistas fully realise is even if the Tories do screw up Brexit Labour has an Achilles heel that it is almost impossible to overcome, that is Corbyn's past. Corbyn, McDonnell and the people around them have some very unpleasant skeletons in their closet which the media has not even begun to trawl through. If you think the press has been hard on Corbyn up to this point let me tell you this now: you ain't seen nothing yet.

I mean having a quick scan through Hansard gives you idea enough.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Conference has been an hilarous sh**t show today

TAKE THAT WALL