Labour Party (UK) Leadership Election, 2016

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Leadership is supposedly bricking it about Foster's legal challenge. Surprising, but this might just be because he's hired a v. scary looking legal team plus their usual paranoia.

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I've read that courts are unwilling to get involved- most think it's badly worded but because it's a 'private club' and the NEC is the established body to deal with these matters they'll ignore it.

This has been my assumption, which is why I'm surprised at reports of jitters. Foster would presumably have to prove that procedure was not followed in a manner that caused an inequitable outcome (or whatever the technical jargon is) which doesn't strike me as easy. But I'm not a lawyer.

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Have the individual names been released yet? That's always oddly fun.

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Eagle's dropped out.

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Yes

Is there a list of Eagle's noms anywhere?

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Well there's a map of Smith's nominations anyway. I suppose you could add Current Frontbenchers to this and the remainder would mostly be Eagle noms?

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God that map just reminds me that Labour really only has MP's in the metro areas

Old industrial areas and big cities, yeah. But then that's what you'd expect from a party with as strong a class profile to its electorate as Labour after a less than great election.

Oh and a lot of university seats thanks to Clegg. Not that there are many of these.

Oh and Anglesey as well. Because Albert Owen is a wizard.

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Welsh parochialism FTW!

Indeed. We (by which I mean 'the Welsh') want our Party back, lol.

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It's the Taffia!

No, no, no, no, no. The Taffia are people like Ffion Hague. Dai Smith's son would never be allowed to become a member; entire bloodline blacklisted...

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Times piece tomorrow has Corbyn's team attack Smith as 'Blair-lite' who supports selling off the NHS... interesting how they're trying to define him early

He's such a terrible untrustworthy Blairite who can't be trusted with any aspect of our beloved Welfare State that Corbyn appointed him to shadow the Tories on Welfare. Wait...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The thing about the three quid system was that it didn't even pay for itself. Personally I would abolish the Registered Supporters scheme entirely but if you're going to have it then it has to be economic. Labour's finances are better than they were but are still not exactly in rude health.

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I signed up my sister, and mum but they're probably the only two registered supporters who aren't voting for JC

Eh... a lot of the RS's from last time joined the party after Corbyn was elected and this time round there has been a push for people to become RS from other elements so it probably won't be quite so lopsided. Going to be tricky to measure accurately actually.

I wonder how many people will end up getting disqualified though?

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If he does win again you're more likely to see him get his old demand for annual leadership elections.

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The general attitude at present is one of extreme bloody mindedness on most sides. Just the way things are.

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Black runs on the Grassroots Alliance slate (i.e. the Organised Left) in NEC elections but is not part of the CPLD.

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A poll of that sort is basically name recognition and no one knows who Owen Smith is. Most Labour voters are also pretty instinctively loyal to the Leader particularly when in opposition; which, also, is why surveys showing him at negative approval with Labour voters are significant. Of course... against all of that... subsample issues lol.

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The only way to absolutely guarantee defeat is to assume that it's going to happen.

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"The membership has forfeited the confidence of the Party's elite and can win it back only by redoubled efforts. Would it not be easier in that case for the Party's elite to dissolve the membership and elect another?"

One issue is that this continually happens anyway: membership of political parties is not stable and a smaller proportion of members (of any party) than you'd think are longterm. Of course the various factions only ever complain about this when it hurts them.

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Anyway, the arguments in Foster's case were heard today. Judge seems to have lost the will to live, which is understandable.

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Isn't that more a facet of Australian political culture rather than the electoral system itself (ie Margaret Thatcher would likely have been out by 1981 in Australia).

You make a compelling case for Australian political culture.

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Foster loses his Jerry Springer-esque court case.

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In some respects Corbyn only has one real advantage but it's a big one in most parts of the Labour movement; incumbency.

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Important thing, though, is that not everyone who voted for Corbyn last time/currently intends to this time is part of one of the various hard cores of support. The selectorate is very diverse.

But notably the Corbyn strategy is clearly to give the impression of inevitability; not illogical given that the risks increase the more people think it's a contest. Smith approach must be the inverse.

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Angry people on the internet aren't actually typical of Labour members, even the ones who plan to vote Corbyn.

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Lazy slippage between 'voters' and 'members' is to be avoided at all costs.

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In further 'Labour Party to change name to 'Jerry Springer Party' news...

Ignoring any appeal issues, then direct implications for this election are probably surprisingly slight (most of the new members are now RSs) but significant indirect implications; definite administrative headache (will it even be possible to carry out the election to the set timetable?), possible financial one as well. There is also now an urgent need to revise the rulebook as it apparently has no real legal standing, but who would be trusted to do that?