Only Minnesota is a plausible and conceivable flip. New Jersey and Virginia is just too suburban and too affluent for Trump to win.
Virginia and Colorado are the 2 ex-battleground states that won’t vote GOP again in the foreseeable future in today’s political alignments.
I think Trump gains in the suburbs, but yeah there are no major inner cities in either NJ or VA for Trump to make major gains in.
NOVA does have a statistically meaningful Muslim and South Asian vote, though. And there's more pro-life presence in the suburbs than NJ or MN. FWIW he districts in the state legislature where they are clustered are usually like 75D/25R, but they only voted like 65D/35R last year.
I still think the answer's MN because of how close it was in 2016, but the apparentNorth/South polarization does give me pause.