Predict the rest of the primaries
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
May 18, 2024, 04:16:49 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2016 U.S. Presidential Election
  Predict the rest of the primaries
« previous next »
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: Predict the rest of the primaries  (Read 689 times)
Senator Spark
Spark498
Atlas Politician
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,728
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.58, S: 0.00

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: March 04, 2016, 08:02:14 PM »

Please use maps
Logged
ElectionsGuy
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,102
United States


Political Matrix
E: 7.10, S: -7.65

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: March 04, 2016, 08:17:32 PM »



Logged
Figueira
84285
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,173


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: March 04, 2016, 08:54:54 PM »


Seems reasonable enough, but why would Clinton win South Dakota while Sanders wins North Dakota and Nebraska?
Logged
ElectionsGuy
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,102
United States


Political Matrix
E: 7.10, S: -7.65

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: March 04, 2016, 09:03:51 PM »


Seems reasonable enough, but why would Clinton win South Dakota while Sanders wins North Dakota and Nebraska?

South Dakota is a primary while North Dakota and Nebraska are caucuses.
Logged
Frodo
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 24,619
United States


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: March 04, 2016, 09:06:58 PM »

Just because political theory dictates that Bernie Sanders should be favored in caucuses doesn't mean he will win them.  Of the four caucuses we have had so far, Hillary has won two of them.  
Logged
ElectionsGuy
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,102
United States


Political Matrix
E: 7.10, S: -7.65

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: March 04, 2016, 09:08:14 PM »

Just because political theory dictates that Bernie Sanders should be favored in caucuses doesn't mean he will win them.  Of the two caucuses we have had so far, Hillary has won both of them.  

Colorado and Minnesota? And no, I'm not saying he 'will' win them, this is a prediction. The Dakotas and Montana were the hardest for me to grasp.
Logged
Frodo
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 24,619
United States


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: March 04, 2016, 09:10:33 PM »

Just because political theory dictates that Bernie Sanders should be favored in caucuses doesn't mean he will win them.  Of the two caucuses we have had so far, Hillary has won both of them.   

Colorado and Minnesota?

Yes, that is why I edited my original post.  Point still stands -caucuses don't necessarily favor Sanders. 
Logged
Figueira
84285
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,173


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: March 04, 2016, 09:18:05 PM »

Just because political theory dictates that Bernie Sanders should be favored in caucuses doesn't mean he will win them.  Of the four caucuses we have had so far, Hillary has won two of them.  

Nor do primaries necessarily favor Clinton, for that matter.
Logged
Mehmentum
Icefire9
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,600
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: March 04, 2016, 09:28:07 PM »

This is my dream scenario:

Rubio drops out after losing Florida.  Kasich wins Ohio.

Wisconsin is very similar to Iowa and Minnesota, Trump could be beaten here.  The D.C. suburbs in Virginia were strong Rubio counties, that could transfer over to Kasich in Maryland and Deleware.  Cruz does unexpectedly well out west.

Probably not gonna happen, but it'd be fun if it did.
Logged
The Other Castro
Castro2020
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,230
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: March 04, 2016, 09:51:39 PM »



Logged
Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin
Runeghost
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,582


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: March 04, 2016, 10:03:58 PM »

This is my dream scenario:

Rubio drops out after losing Florida.  Kasich wins Ohio.

Wisconsin is very similar to Iowa and Minnesota, Trump could be beaten here.  The D.C. suburbs in Virginia were strong Rubio counties, that could transfer over to Kasich in Maryland and Deleware.  Cruz does unexpectedly well out west.
Probably not gonna happen, but it'd be fun if it did.

Unless Trump runs away with the nomination, I think this, or something like it is where things are going to go. Trump doesn't actually seem to go over that well in the West and Midwest. Now, Trump running away with things is at least equally likely, but IF we're going to a brokered convention, this seems like a plausible direction.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.237 seconds with 11 queries.