Democratic Ides of March Tuesday results thread (first polls close at 7pm ET)

[gf20202]

https://twitter.com/DavidShuster/status/709844940713553920

This is honestly a bit shocking, dunno if authentic, but Hispanic vote is actually higher in overall % state wise compared to Black vote in Illinois.

If this is authentic - this guy is credible, it is good news for Sanders & definitely means Sanders has a good chance to win!

I agree that would obviously be great for Sanders if true. I can't believe that Shuster is the only one who has those numbers. Feel like they would be all over my twitter timeline if true.

[gf20202]

The more I look at the timing of it, the more I doubt those Hispanic exit polls in Illinois. Networks are having to do on the fly analysis because they receive everything literally at 5 PM EST. Yet Shuster gets a topline in a major demographic before 2 PM? And a result that seems highly unlikely. I think they are bogus.

[gf20202]

If whites and blacks vote in OH the same way they voted in MI, Bernie will win OH.

Um, yeah, isn't that beyond obvious?

[gf20202]

Hispanics allegedly went huge for Sanders in IL. Take that with a mountain of salt though.

Is that from the Shuster tweet or someone repeating it? Where did you see that?

[gf20202]

Next 9 states are good for Bernie, he isn't going anywhere.

I don't see how Bernie wins Arizona. It's a closed dem primary.

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I definitely do not want Bernie to drop out. He has no reason to. He has run a good campaign, and as  Hillary supporter, I appreciate the focus on very important issues he has highlighted. Also, on a personal, selfish reason, I am glad that Bernie will be driving up the vote in WI on April 5... very important Supreme Court race and we definitively need the energy on the D side that Tuesday.

Agreed.

As a Bernie supporter (who will vote for Hillary in the GE without whining about it), I also think it benefits Hillary for Bernie to stay in. She's able to continue addressing issues in a sane manner. If Bernie dropped, she would have to start going head to head with Trump, and while she can still do that and stay civilized, it'll be better for her to put off that fight and slowly work up to it.

If Bernie dropped out wouldn't she have to use GE funds from that point forward? I remember reading something to that effect...anyone know?

That is incorrect. She can use primary funds until the convention, regardless of whether she has an opponent or not

[gf20202]

To go way way back to the beginning of the thread, David Shuster was likely full of crap on those Illinois exits of Hispanic voters. It was 49-49. I don't see how things could have shifted that dramatically from the early exits.

http://www.cnn.com/election/primaries/polls/il/Dem

Arizona up next as well as two small caucuses. Last poll there by an albeit unknown pollster:
http://www.bizjournals.com/phoenix/news/2016/02/29/arizona-poll-hillary-clinton-has-big-lead-on.html