Austrian Elections & Politics 2.0 (Presidential runoff re-vote: 4 Dec. 2016)

[Sozialliberal]

How the voters of the 2013 legislative election voted in this presidential election
Voter-transition analysis by SORA

SPÖ voters in 2013
32 % Hundstorfer
24 % non-voters
16 % Van der Bellen
13 % Hofer
10 % Griss
3 % Lugner
2 % Khol

ÖVP voters in 2013
34 % Khol
24 % Hofer
18 % Griss
14 % non-voters
7 % Van der Bellen
2 % Hundstorfer
2 % Lugner

FPÖ voters in 2013
86 % Hofer
5 % non-voters
3 % Khol
3 % Griss
2 % Van der Bellen
1 % Lugner
1 % Hundstorfer

Green voters in 2013
69 % Van der Bellen
21 % Griss
8 % non-voters
1 % Khol
1 % Hofer
1 % Lugner
0 % Hundstorfer

Team Stronach voters in 2013
46 % Hofer
35 % Griss
12 % non-voters
2 % Hundstorfer
2 % Lugner
2 % Van der Bellen
1 % Khol

NEOS voters in 2013
48 % Griss
35 % Van der Bellen
10 % non-voters
3 % Hofer
2 % Lugner
1 % Khol
0 % Hundstorfer

Voters of other parties in 2013
31 % Griss
23 % Hofer
17 % Van der Bellen
16 % non-voters
5 % Khol
4 % Hundstorfer
3 % Lugner

Non-voters in 2013
87 % non-voters
5 % Van der Bellen
3 % Hofer
3 % Griss
1 % Lugner
1 % Hundstorfer
1 % Khol

[Sozialliberal]

   One would think that Griss would have made a strong runoff candidate, as she had a centrist profile and thus could win support from the center and left against Hofer.

Griss would probably had a chance to defeat Hofer as she appears to be an acceptable person to all camps of Austrian voters. Van der Bellen on the other hand is tied to impopular pro-immigration policies that are very off with the current mood in all European electorates which makes it very hard for me to even see him coming close to defeating Hofer.

That's why I'm an advocate of instant-runoff voting for presidential elections. Griss would have most certainly won this election if Austria had this voting system.

I've made a list of prominent members of parties other than the Greens who have publicly said that they're going to vote for Van der Bellen in the second round:

SPÖ

• Franz Vranitzky, former Chancellor of Austria (1986–1997), former Federal Chairman of the SPÖ (1988–1997)
• Erich Foglar, President of the Austrian Trade Union Federation
• Michael Häupl, Mayor of Vienna, Chairman of the SPÖ of Vienna
• Peter Kaiser, Governor of Carinthia, Chairman of the SPÖ of Carinthia
• Werner Faymann, Chancellor of Austria, Federal Chairman of the SPÖ
• Christian Kern, CEO of the Austrian Federal Railways, potential future SPÖ chairman
• Andreas Schieder, Chairman of the SPÖ Parliamentary Group in the National Council
• Rudolf Hundstorfer, SPÖ candidate in the 2016 presidential election, former Minister for Labour, Social Services and Consumer Protection (2008–2016), former President of the Austrian Trade Union Federation (2007–2008)
• Eugen Freund, journalist, SPÖ top candidate in the 2014 European Parliament election
• Matthias Stadler, Chairman of the SPÖ of Lower Austria, Mayor of St. Pölten
• Johann Kalliauer, Chairman of the SPÖ of Upper Austria
• Ingo Mayr, Chairman of the SPÖ of Tyrol
• Michael Ritsch, Chairman of the SPÖ of Vorarlberg

ÖVP

• Othmar Karas; ÖVP top candidate in the 2014 European Parliament election; former Vice President of the European Parliament (2012–2014)
• Franz Fischler; former European Commissioner for Agriculture, Rural Development and Fishing (1995–2004); former Austrian Minister for Agriculture and Forestry (1989–1994)

NEOS and predecessor parties

• Matthias Strolz, Federal Chairman of NEOS
• Friedhelm Frischenschlager, founding member of the Liberal Forum, former Minister for Defence (1983–1986), former Chairman of the FPÖ Parliamentary Group in the National Council (1986–1990)
• Hans Peter Haselsteiner, construction tycoon, former Deputy Chairman of the Liberal Forum Parliamentary Group in the National Council (1996–1998)
• Angelika Mlinar, NEOS top candidate in the 2014 European Parliament election, Federal Deputy Chairwoman of NEOS
• Heide Schmidt (had only said she'd vote for VdB in the 1st round, but she'll vote for him again for sure), founding member of the Liberal Forum, former Third President of the National Council (1990–1994), former Deputy Chairwoman of the FPÖ (1990–1993), FPÖ candidate in the 1992 presidential election

Robert Lugar (Chairman of the Team Stronach Parliamentary Group in the National Council) is the only prominent member of a party other than the FPÖ who supports Hofer.

[Sozialliberal]

In yesterday's TV debate, Hofer accused Van der Bellen of being supported by Freemasons from Berlin and Brussels. LOL, what a conspiracy nut! However, it's sad to think that this guy could actually become president.

Faymann just resigned. Both as Chancellor and SPÖ head.

Finally!

[Sozialliberal]

  I'm wondering what smaller cities or towns have a big working class and have historically been SPO strongholds but might very well give Hofer a big majority?

That would be the Mur-Mürz-Furche, an industrial region in northern Styria. It became a hub of the the Austrian iron and steel industry in the 19th century. Even today, most jobs in the region are in this sector. The Mur-Mürz-Furche was hit hard by the steel crisis in the late 20th century that resulted in job losses and migration of younger people. Like the Rust Belt in the US, it's a region that has to reinvent itself.

How major towns in the Mur-Mürz-Furche voted
2013 legislative election versus 2016 presidential election, round 1
Mürzzuschlag (2013 results, 2016 results)
Kapfenberg (2013 results, 2016 results)
Bruck an der Mur (2013 results, 2016 results)
Leoben (2013 results, 2016 results)
Judenburg (2013 results, 2016 results)

Also, on the other side, wealthier smaller cities and towns which have historically gone to the OVP perhaps, but now might swing to VDB.  

Some affluent suburbs of Vienna:
Klosterneuburg (2013 results, 2016 results)
Perchtoldsdorf (2013 results, 2016 results)
Maria Enzersdorf (2013 results, 2016 results)

[Sozialliberal]

Your argumentation is very one-sided. Rudolfheim-Fünfhaus is a district of Vienna with a relatively high percentage of immigrants (especially from majority Muslim countries), but the FPÖ share of the vote is usually below the average in this district. Although there are relatively few foreign nationals in the Mur-Mürz-Furche, Hofer's results are above the average in this region. So it's not that simple.

[Sozialliberal]

to clarify: absolutely no postal ballots have been counted yet, correct?

asking because of this:

https://twitter.com/c3o/status/734444612090253312

edit: http://wahl16.bmi.gv.at/1605-bw_ov_0.html

I'm not sure what that is. All postal ballots will be counted tomorrow. It reads "vorläufiges Endergebnis inklusive Briefwahlstimmen" (preliminary final result including postal ballots). Maybe it's a projection?

[Sozialliberal]

That sounds likely.

[Sozialliberal]

I'm glad that Van der Bellen has won. I would have been a Griss voter in the first round, and wasn't really enthusiastic about Van der Bellen. However, I quite liked his first speech as president. So I translated it.


A shortened/tightened translation of Van der Bellen's first speech as president

Austria has experienced restless hours. The election result probably hasn't left anyone in Austria cold. It's a great responsibility for me as the future president but also for Mr Hofer. I think that both of us (Hofer and I) respect the voters' decision. I congratulate Mr Hofer for his very dedicated election campaign, and express my gratitude to all people who have voted in the election, especially those who have voted for me. I thank you for your trust.

Much has been talked about opened-up rifts. I don't want to dramatize it. These rifts have already existed for a longer time. Maybe we didn't pay close enough attention. However, in the last months many people have discussed or even quarrelled with one another, cut across all occupations, classes and families. I don't think that's a bad sign either. It's a good sign – the citizens are not indifferent to politics, quite the contrary. They want to actively help shape. Therefore we should also direct our attention to the politicization, the high turnout. That's a great sign.

What matters now is that we learn from the experiences of the last months. Many in this country apparently feel like they're not really seen and heard. We'll need a different policy – one that isn't occupied with politics itself but with the the real fears, also with the anger. Listening – that is also a double-edged matter: When I listen to someone, I can expect that they listen to me, too.

My campaign was about putting the things that unite us before the things that separate us – despite the variety of people and interests. I learnt that people can be very different and still treat one another respectfully already during my childhood in Kaunertal.

I want to be a constructive partner of the federal government, so that we'll be able to say in six years; as many people as possible should say: "Yes, things are going well for me, maybe better. My children have a good future." As many people in Austria as possible should be able to say: "My view of the future is full of confidence, full of hope."

I'll respresent Austria in the world and seek the things that unite us at home. I'll be a non-partisan president for all people in this country. That requires suspending my membership of the Greens from today on.

I'll try everything to earn the trust of Norbert Hofer's voters, too. I'll work exclusively to the best of my knowledge and in all conscience, and regard the well-being of Austria as the supreme principle of action. Austria is a wonderful country that has and will achieve great things.

A comment on the close result: You can see it this way: That's a symbol that couldn't speak any more clearly to us. There has been much talk about dividing lines; left and right, town and country, above and below, old and young – but you can look at the tie in this way: There are two halves that make up Austria. Both are equally important. I could say: You are just as important as me. I am just as important as you. Together we amount to this beautiful Austria.

[Sozialliberal]

You know what really bugs me, Omega21? You're ranting about crimes committed by immigrants all the time, and yet you didn't say a word when an immigrant robbed a supermarket and killed a police officer in Vienna two weeks ago (RIP). I wonder if it's because the culprit was Bosnian and you're from Bosnia and Herzegovina yourself.