Predctions on Election 2004

[Jacob]

Here are my guesses:


Alabama: Bush  
Alaska: Bush  
Arizona: Bush  
Arkansas: Bush  
California: Kerry  
Colorado: Bush  
Connecticut: Kerry
Delaware: Kerry  
District of Columbia: Kerry  
Florida: Kerry
Georgia: Bush  
Hawaii: Kerry  
Idaho: Bush  
Illinois: Kerry  
Indiana: Bush  
Iowa: Kerry
Kansas: Bush  
Kentucky: Bush  
Louisiana: Bush
Maine: Kerry  
Maryland: Kerry  
Massachusetts: Kerry  
Michigan: Kerry  
Minnesota: Kerry  
Mississippi: Bush  
Missouri: Kerry
Montana: Bush  
Nebraska: Bush  
Nevada: Kerry
New Hampshire: Kerry  
New Jersey: Kerry  
New Mexico: Kerry
New York: Kerry  
North Carolina: Bush  
North Dakota: Bush  
Ohio: Kerry  
Oklahoma: Bush  
Oregon: Kerry  
Pennsylvania: Kerry  
Rhode Island: Kerry  
South Carolina: Bush
South Dakota: Bush
Tennessee: Bush
Texas: Bush
Utah: Bush
Vermont: Kerry  
Virginia: Bush
Washington: Kerry
West Virginia: Kerry
Wisconsin: Kerry
Wyoming: Bush

Note: States that are tossups in my view are…

New Hampshire (leads to Kerry)
Ohio (true tossup)
Florida (leans to Bush, but Nelson or Graham could change that)
Iowa (leans to Bush)
New Mexico (leans to Bush)
Nevada (leans to Bush)
Wisconsin (leans to Kerry)
Missouri (leans to Bush)  


Electoral vote totals:

Kerry 312
Bush 226

A solid win for Kerry. Kerry wins all of the states that Gore won in 2000(because the Nader factor is not so influential), and adds Florida, New Hampshire, Missouri, Nevada and Ohio to his column. I consider these 4 tossup states but I would say that they are leaning Kerry at the moment.

If the election were held today, Kerry would almost certainly win. Unfortunately, the election was not held today, so we still have around 12 or 13 states nationwide that can honestly be considered tossups.

Anyway, there are my guesses. Make of them what you will.