National Tracking Poll Thread

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Romney is getting rocked pretty much everywhere over his bizarre comments.

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Is it really that hard to believe that Democratic enthusiasm is much higher than Republican enthusiasm at this point? Romney was never exciting but now he's just getting embarrassing.

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Now we just have to wait for the 47% deluge!

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Looks like Romney supporters on cable news will have to remove "it's tied on Gallup" from their talking points. This morning on MTP Bay Buchannana screamed "its a dead heat" half a dozen time.

They'll just jump from Gallup to Rasmussen.

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Meanwhile, the erstwhile-gold-standard Gallup tracker has the race steady, at Obama 50-Romney 44.

Disapproval is up one on Gallup.

Irrelevant to what he was saying.

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What Scott Rasmussen's trying to say I guess is that he will use a D+3 sample in the final week, instead of his current R+2 sample, to save face.

Kind of makes you wonder, right, why he weights for partisan ID, something almost no other pollster does, when he himself thinks that actual turnout in November will be quite different from his weightings.

Because he has to get on Fox News somehow.

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Not sure what today's movement in Gallup means.. great Obama sample just came on? Good Romney sample dropped off? Who knows.

I'd say that there isn't a drop off.  It looks like 4-6 point lead on Gallup, that is natural.  It is out of the six day cycle.

Right now, I'd predict an Obama victory, of under 310 EV's.

There's really no reason to think that Romney would carry Florida if the election were today (which is basically the only way to keep Obama under 310 EVs).

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Rasmussen:

Obama:  49%

Romney: 47%

Unchanged.

You'll have to wait a couple of days for the deluge.

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Obama needs to drink a Red Bull and get a little more serious about preparation before the next debate and he should be alright.

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It's going to be a very short lived bounce if Obama's approval is still hanging at 50%, I suspect...

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Obama won the debate for me too but I accept that I clearly am in the minority with that opinion.

The biggest issue with his performance was how lethargic he became in the second half of the debate. Red Bull, brother! They need to expand the world of his talking points a little too.

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Yes, that "shine" better start packing his bags right now.

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I really wouldn't expect much of a bounce for Obama based on the jobs report but I seriously doubt Romney's debate bounce will last very long.

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Gallup

Obama-49 (NC)
Romney-46(NC)

The bounce may already be receding, that was quick...

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DEFENSE! DEFENSE!

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Is there a reason RCP has the race tied at 47 percent in their table?

They are going with Gallup three day sample that showed a tied race.

A pretty pathetic move on their part. RCP is run by a bunch of Republican hacks and if they can cut corners to paint a prettier picture for Romney, they will. I'm not just throwing out accusations either, I've actually talked to the only liberalish guy who works there before.

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It's about time. They should have switched over almost a month ago.

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Pew Poll

Romney 49
Obama  45

Pew is usually messed up, but rarely in favor of Rs.  

Why are you posting this in the tracking poll thread?

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Rasmussen

Obama 48 (unc)
Romney 48 (unc)

At this rate we may actually get a few days where Democratic spin doctors start talking highly of the Rasmuusen poll and Republicans disregard it in favor of polls like Pew and PPP/Dailykos!

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It's kind of hilarious if October saw the American electorate adjusting to match Rasmussen rather than the other way around.

If it actually lasts.

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OBAMA'S BACK

RV: Obama 50% (+1), Romney 45% (-1)
LV: Romney 48% (-1), Obama 48% (+1)

Groovy.

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If this is a tracker, shouldn't this thread just be merged with the main tracking poll thread?

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IBD/TIPP (Day 3):

47% Romney (-2)
46% Obama (+2)

lol...

They obviously must have had a bad pro-Romney sample in there.

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Out of 3500 people nationwide in their tracking poll, how many are going to be in Ohio? About 130. Now what has everybody been ever telling you about tiny subsamples?

Yep. Obama probably isn't leading in Florida at the moment either...

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Gallup (likely):

Romney:  49, u

Obama:  47, u

Gallup (registered):

Obama: 49, +1

Romney: 46, u