Croatia parliamentary election - November 8, 2015

[politicus]

People's Party - Reformists (NS-R) and Josipovic Forward Croatia! have made an electoral alliance called "Successful Croatia" and are running together, so the two centrist parties are now the third alliance. Might be enough to give them a few seats.

[Ex-Assemblyman Steelers]

Probably,  Cacic (People's party - Reformist)  is strong in North Croatia and they probably will make coalition with Istrian Democratic Assembly which means a couple of seats from Istria and Kvarner.

[politicus]

Will be held on November 8.

[Tender Branson]

This will be tomorrow.

My prediction: HDZ will win.

[PetrSokol]

Croatian Medias speak about the shortest elections ever....

[Famous Mortimer]

People's Party - Reformists (NS-R) and Josipovic Forward Croatia! have made an electoral alliance called "Successful Croatia" and are running together, so the two centrist parties are now the third alliance. Might be enough to give them a few seats.

Why did Josipovic split with the Social Democrats? He always seemed like the epitome of a generic Social Democrat.

[PetrSokol]

..rivalry with PM Milanovič who should support Josipović not enough in the presidential elections

[PetrSokol]

Polling stations in Croatia will be open 7:00 - 19:00. First results expected cca 22:00. For the first time will the voter have right to use one preferential vote. 

[Tender Branson]

Until 11:30am, turnout is up significantly from 2011:

22% vs. 16% in 2011

The asylum crisis is really mobilizing voters everywhere.

[Tender Branson]

Looking at the turnout map from the Croatian election page, turnout is up most in the migrant-corridor in the eastern part of Croatia (where 100.000s of migrants move from Serbia through Croatia to Slovenia).

[Hash]

Of course, there can only ever be one reason for higher turnout.

[Tender Branson]

Of course, there can only ever be one reason for higher turnout.

Of what other reasons can you think of in the case of Croatia, if not for the migrants passing through the country ?

[BundouYMB]

Of course, there can only ever be one reason for higher turnout.

Of what other reasons can you think of in the case of Croatia, if not for the migrants passing through the country ?

I don't know, maybe the neck-and-neck 50/50 election and tons of new parties, as opposed to the forgone conclusion of last time. But nah, I'm sure its totally impossible anyone was less interested in Zoran Milanović's coronation ceremony than in the closest election in Croatian history.

I'm sure that its also totally impossible that Croatia has historically (=every election but 2011) had high turnout, and spending 2 seconds on wikipedia would make it obvious that 2011 was always a complete outlier. Oh, wait.

[rob in cal]

   Is there a certain number of seats that the two main coalitions are hoping to win to be able to form a government?  If they get about the same number, who would be in best position to have a working majority?

[PetrSokol]

Its really complicated because the third parties are not sure to reach any seat. Only one of them - regional party from Slavonia - will for sure get some and it will be the posiblle partner for HDZ. On the other hand there will be  3 Serbian MP´s (reserved seats for minorities) who are closer to left.....

[PetrSokol]

Exit poll by Ipsos:

HDZ - Patriotic coalition 56 seats
SDP - Croatia is growing coalition 56
Bridge (Most) 18
Living wall 3
Istrian regionalist IDS 3
HDSSB 2
Bandič 2
Orah 0
Succesfull Croatia (Josipovic) 0

minorities 8
diaspora 3 (propably HDZ)

[PetrSokol]

new edition of exit poll:

HDZ+ 57
SDP+ 56
Most 17
Živi zid 3
IDS 3
HDSSB 2
Bandič 2

[Halgrímur]

Revised exit poll:

HDZ 57
SDP 56
Most 17
HDSSB 2
IDS 3
Živi Zid 3
MB365 2

Most will be kingmakers. With the 3 expat seats HDZ + Most is 77, SDP + Most 73 (76 with IDS). All the small SDP coalition partners are out.

[Halgrímur]

Constituency breakdown (based on the first exit poll, which had Most 1 higher and HDZ one lower):

1. SDP 7, HDZ 4, Most 3

2.HDZ 6, SDP 5. Most 2, Milan Bandić 365 1

3. SDP 8, HDZ 4, Most 1, Živi zid 1

4.HDZ 6, SDP 5, HDSSB 2, Most 1

5. HDZ 8, SDP 4, Most 2

6. SDP 6, HDZ 6, Most 1. Miland Bandić 365 1

7. SDP 6, HDZ 5, Most 2, Živi Zid 1

8. SDP 7, IDS 3, HDZ 2, Most 1. Živi Zid 1

9. HDZ 8, SDP 4, Most 2

10. HDZ 7, SDP 4, Most 3

So Most gets seats everywhere. Really a breakthrough.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Croatian_Parliament_electoral_districts

I Zagreb
II Bjelovar
III Varaždin
IV Osijek
V Slavonski Brod
VI Sisak
VII Karlovac
VIII Pazin
IX Zadar
X Split

[Halgrímur]

The refugee crisis has been a double-edged sword for HDZ. It help rally their base, but likely also meant some right wing voters were reluctant to vote for a party that more or less guaranteed a confrontational relationship with Serbia and Bosnia - necessary partners in solving the crisis. The rise of Most is influenced by this (but also of course secular middle class Conservatives protesting the "culture war" against unpatriotic artists and the Serb minority etc.).

There has been several attempts to launch a Western style, secular and non-nationalist Conservative party in Croatia, and they have all flopped, but now it has finally happened. Even if it is a fairly loose alliance.

[Halgrímur]

I'm sure that its also totally impossible that Croatia has historically (=every election but 2011) had high turnout, and spending 2 seconds on wikipedia would make it obvious that 2011 was always a complete outlier. Oh, wait.

Certainly higher than 2011, but never really high.

The increasing duopoly with a choice between SoCon Nationalists and Titoists turned many voters off, but it seems Most have at least mobilized the secular, moderate right, whereas many left wing voters are still homeless despite various attempts. ORaH has had its shot and failed.

[Halgrímur]

The 8 reserved minority seats are:

Serbs 3 (currently all held by the Independent Democratic Serb Party)
Italians 1
Hungarians 1
Czechs & Slovaks 1
Bosniaks, Slovenians, Montenegrins, Macedonians and Albanians (this seat will invariably go to the Bosniak Democratic Party) 1
Other minorities (Germans, Ukrainians, Ruthenians, Romanians, Russians, Turks, Jews, Roma, Poles) 1

Recent migrant groups do not vote for the minority seats, just historical minorities.

Only Serbs and Bosniaks have their own minority parties and the other four seats will go to minority candidates from Croatian parties, but the anti-minority positions of the Patriotic Alliance means they are unlikely to get seats.

[PetrSokol]

First real results - 14 % of polling locals counted:

HDZ+ 63
SDP+ 52
Most 17
IDS 5
Bandić 2
HDSSB 2
Živi zid 2

[Donnie]

First real results - 14 % of polling locals counted:

HDZ+ 63
SDP+ 52
Most 17
IDS 5
Bandić 2
HDSSB 2
Živi zid 2

any website to live results?

[PetrSokol]

I have no enough posts, but find izbori.hr

there are the results under the electoral units (click on the map...)