EP elections 2014

[Zinneke]

Two new UK polls. This is gonna be a horrible result.

ComRes/ITV
UKIP 38 (+8)
Labour 27 (-3)
Tory 18 (-4)
LibDem 8 (nc)

TNS-BMRB
UKIP 36 (+7)
Labour 27 (-3)
Tory 18 (-3)
LibDem 10 (+1)

Pretty funny.

However, I will not shake the feeling that this also means a certain deliberate overestimation of UKIP. Only to then provide them at 25% a failure. Do you have evidence for this thesis?

Actually if anything most of the people who say they will vote Labour/Tory will probably stay at home.

UKIP will win this election because the entire election is their issue and their favorite hunting ground. The other parties couldn't give a toss.

We should only be worried about UKIP's poll ratings for national elections.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Broadly speaking, yes. UKIP came second at the last EuroParl elections and polled derisively at the General Election less than a year later. They'll do better this time, but how much better? Besides if your vote is fairly evenly distributed you can easily take 10% of the vote in a General Election and win no seats. And UKIP's vote tends to be unusually evenly distributed for a British party.

But it seems - assuming that the polling firms are in general broadly correct - that UKIP and Labour will both roughly - and that word is important - double their shares from last time at the expense of just about everyone else.

[Enno von Loewenstern]

Broadly speaking, yes. UKIP came second at the last EuroParl elections and polled derisively at the General Election less than a year later. They'll do better this time, but how much better? Besides if your vote is fairly evenly distributed you can easily take 10% of the vote in a General Election and win no seats. And UKIP's vote tends to be unusually evenly distributed for a British party.

But it seems - assuming that the polling firms are in general broadly correct - that UKIP and Labour will both roughly - and that word is important - double their shares from last time at the expense of just about everyone else.

Well, http://www.eastleighnews.co.uk/2014/04/ukip-top-general-election-poll-in-eastleigh/ indicates, that UKIP could win Eastleigh. As far as i know, that is the first poll giving UKIP a seat.

Possible candidates Diane James and Nigel Farage:

 

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Constituency polling is terrible.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

I was polled for the first time ever two days ago.

How accurate were my answers? Well, they were accurate at the time*

(* to the closest degree of dissimulation)

[afleitch]

If UKIP poll strongly, while it'll only be milkable for a short while, it'll be interesting to see what effect it has on the voting intentions in the Scottish Referendum.

[YL]

Constituency polling is terrible.

I know this is widely believed, but is it actually true?  It doesn't seem easy to find evidence of what the track record really is.

In 2010, I'm only aware of one example, which was a totally inaccurate poll in Norwich South.

In 2005, I'm aware of five polls, four of which were OK (Finchley & Golders Green, Shipley, Haltemprice & Howden, Cardiff North) and one (Ynys Môn, which I suspect isn't the easiest place to poll) was not so good.

That isn't a great track record, but it's only six polls.  We'll have rather more this time, but the results may say more about Survation than about constituency polling...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I know this is widely believed, but is it actually true?

Yes. They used to be much more common in the UK than they are now (local media was very keen on them) and have fallen out of favour for a reason. But they are still common in Canada and Australia, and...

[Cassius]

Two new UK polls. This is gonna be a horrible result.

ComRes/ITV
UKIP 38 (+8)
Labour 27 (-3)
Tory 18 (-4)
LibDem 8 (nc)

TNS-BMRB
UKIP 36 (+7)
Labour 27 (-3)
Tory 18 (-3)
LibDem 10 (+1)

Despite the admittedly dubious record of these polling companies, this is still hilarious. Its particularly amusing that despite the recent mini-avalanche of scandals and gaffes that have hit UKIP, they're still rising in the polls.

[afleitch]

Doing the vote match thingy;

For Scotland I got the SNP unsurprisingly. Lib Dems second.

[justfollowingtheelections]

Interesting story:
http://www.nltimes.nl/2014/04/30/rutte-threatened-euro-exit-2012-van-rompuy/

[Zinneke]

Interesting story:
http://www.nltimes.nl/2014/04/30/rutte-threatened-euro-exit-2012-van-rompuy/

He thinks he is more powerful than he really is. Like a child seeking attention during an important meeting IMO.

I cannot stress how disastrous it would be for the Netherlands to be cut off from the rest of Europe. Such a large country will not put up with simply being a tax haven for multinational companies with its trade potential.

[Enno von Loewenstern]

Interesting story:
http://www.nltimes.nl/2014/04/30/rutte-threatened-euro-exit-2012-van-rompuy/

He thinks he is more powerful than he really is. Like a child seeking attention during an important meeting IMO.

I cannot stress how disastrous it would be for the Netherlands to be cut off from the rest of Europe. Such a large country will not put up with simply being a tax haven for multinational companies with its trade potential.

If things should have been so, then Rutte would have been right to do so.
And as for van Rumpuy, you can see here http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bypLwI5AQvY

[Tender Branson]

New EP poll by Gallup (center of the page):



On the lower left side, there's the hypothetical direct vote of the frontrunners.

Also, Europa Anders has 3% for the first time and NEOS is ahead of the Greens.

[Enno von Loewenstern]

How much are you interested in the European elections? very much, much, less, not at all


Schulz, Juncker, neither of the two, do not know them



EU enlargement in the last 10 years. The accession of 13 mainly Eastern European countries: was a good thing, was not a good thing


Should there be more new memberstates?

[Enno von Loewenstern]

And let's just check how much one can rely on the polls from infratest dimap concerning the European elections:

2009

CDSU +1,1
SPD +5,2
Gre -0,1
FDP -2
Left -0,5
Oth -3,8

2004

CDSU +2,5
SPD +8,5
Gre +0,1
FDP -1,1
Left -2,1
Oth -6,8

Average over/underestimation

CDSU +1,8
SPD + 6,9
Gre right
FDP -1,6
Left -1,8
Oth -5,3

[Senator Cris]

TECNE' Poll for Italy

PD 28,9%
M5S 27,4%
FI 21,3%
Lega 5,3%
NCD-UDC 4,8%
===========
FDI-AN 3,8%
Tsipras 3,8%
European Choice-ALDE 2,3%
Others 2,4%

DEMOPOLIS Poll

PD 33,2%
M5S 25%
FI 17%
NCD-UDC 5,6%
Lega 5,4%
Tsipras 4%
===========
FDI-AN 3,8%
European Choice-ALDE 2,3%
Others 3,7%

IPSOS Poll

PD 34,4%
M5S 23,7%
FI 19,3%
NCD-UDC 5,9%
Lega 5,1%
==========
FDI-AN 3,9%
Tsipras 3,3%
European Choice-ALDE 3,2%
Others 1,2%

EMG Poll

PD 33,1%
M5S 24,4%
FI 19,6%
NCD-UDC 5,1%
Lega 4,5%
FDI-AN 4%
==========
Tsipras 3,8%
European Choice-ALDE 2,5%
Others 3%

SWG Poll

PD 35,4%
M5S 21,9%
FI 18%
Lega 5,6%
NCD-UDC 4,9%
===========
Tsipras 3,8%
FDI-AN 3,5%
European Choice-ALDE 2,2%
Others 4,7%

[Antonio the Sixth]

Tecnè seems like a huge outlier, any reason for this?

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Sorry to post a BNP video, but this has to be seen to be believed:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=am2-fVIkf8I

The BNP are going for the lucrative anti-hijab-penguins vote I see. Also Nick Griffin is ten feet tall, everybody else in the party is literally a cardboard cut out and the Fascists have well and truly run out of money/taste.

[Tender Branson]

Sorry to post a BNP video, but this has to be seen to be believed:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=am2-fVIkf8I

The BNP are going for the lucrative anti-hijab-penguins vote I see. Also Nick Griffin is ten feet tall, everybody else in the party is literally a cardboard cut out and the Fascists have well and truly run out of money/taste.

Too long.

They should cut it into various 20 or 30 second ads and remove that silly child song.

Needs more "metal trash music", like:

"MUSLIMMS ! MUSLIMMSSS ! NII***ERRS coming to OUR SHORES - in boats ! OUR SHOOOREES !"

[Filuwaúrdjan]

YouGov/The Scum: Labour 29, UKIP 28, Con 22, LDem 9, Green 8, Nat 3, Others 2

---

Basically polling for Euro elections is a total crapshoot. The poor polling firms don't even really know what they're measuring or how to do so. *shrugs*

[Gustaf]

Juncker and SChultz? Are the European parties deliberately trolling us with those choices?

[You kip if you want to...]

Schulz, Juncker, neither of the two, do not know them

That many Germans know who either of them are!?

[Enno von Loewenstern]

Schulz, Juncker, neither of the two, do not know them

That many Germans know who either of them are!?

No. Perhaps the real question was: Who do you want to vote for, the candidate of the EPP/CDU Juncker, or the candidate of the S&D/SPD Schulz?

[Enno von Loewenstern]

Juncker and SChultz? Are the European parties deliberately trolling us with those choices?

One really asks oneself, if the EU apologets are just do not have any better, or are just trying to help the eurosceptics.