County Flips 2024 Predictions

[Lykaon]

Which counties do you think will flip in November?

States that I’m more familiar with:

Florida: Pinellas

South Carolina: Jasper

Pennsylvania: Cumberland, Erie

[wnwnwn]

Rockland, NY

[ProgressiveModerate]

Maybe something like this?

[Smash255]

I could see Suffolk County, NY potentially flipping to Biden.   It could certainly keep the 2022 and recent local GOP trend, but the simple fact Trump only won it by 0.03% puts it into the mix.

[Ragnaroni]

Maybe something like this?

Ok why carver before anoka???

[iceman]

Maybe something like this?

highly unlikely that Biden could flip that many counties. Winnebago? Catawba? Hamilton?

[ProgressiveModerate]

Maybe something like this?

Ok why carver before anoka???

Carver has higher college attainment and more favorable growth - Anoka has been stuck as a marginal R County for years now whereas Carver has zoomed left.

[Vice President Christian Man]

Maybe something like this?

I have to disagree with many of the Dem flips. Perhaps they'll flip in 2028 if Trump wins and is unpopular when he leaves office, but I have a feeling that some of the biggest shifts towards the GOP will come from the suburbs. While some of the more college town counties you put down (Oklahoma, Monogolia etc.) are more likely to flip Dem, that will depend purely on if the college students turn out for Biden and if the pro-Dem shift since 2012 continues. But I have my doubts about that as well as Biden is historically unpopular for a Dem with young people.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Lee County AR is highly likely to flip to Trump.

[Schiff for Senate]

Maybe something like this?

If Winnebago County is flipping in IL then I'd say Jackson is too.

[walleye26]

Maybe something like this?

I would say that Door or Sauk would flip R likelier than Portage would, but overall I generally agree with most of these. Not sure the CT one (Litchfield?) flips though.