How many State Senate seats will the GOP have in Arkansas after the election?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

They currently have 8. There are only 14 seats up for election, of which 11 are Democratic-held, meaning they'd need to take all but one to take it (probably close to mathematically impossible, I'm sure at least two seats have too many blacks to be winnable.)

Based on a rough scan of what is up, I bet they'll take 5/11 of those, resulting in 13/35.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Wikipedia is wrong then.

So it is mathematically impossible for them to take it.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Who cares? Arkansas law makes gerrymandering near-impossible anyhow.

I would say the more interesting question is whether the federal-level Democrats' troubles are going to translate to pain for the local Democrats. It's obviously not hurting Beebe, but Republicans could make significant gains at the state legislative level.

Basically. Though I may have to revise my prediction depending on where the uncontested seats are. I mostly based my prediction on seats the Democrats have in areas they have no business winning. There's two from the Little Rock suburbs and three in NW Arkansas, of which at least one appears to be a seat even Clinton couldn't win in either of his elections. The Arkansas GOP is really THAT pathetic. And honestly I doubt that'll improve much even after this year.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Just remembered this. They now have 15...meaning they must've won every contested seat. Wow.