This will be updated semi-regularly until the actual election (I hope). No details; just a map.
Republicans gain 5 seats, Democrats gain 1. Should be obvious. I'm going with a mathematical model -- averaging the last 3 polls from different companies. If PPP's conducted 4 polls, I just take the most recent one, no averaging. If there's a single different one from a few months ago, it gets included. I get my polling from RCP; if a poll isn't included, ask them.
The two independents are counted as Democrats for the purpose of this exercise. Republicans take the Senate, 51-49.
Obviously this map will change dramatically by Election Day.
Dems flipping NV but not MA seems unlikely. Everything else looks very reasonable. It's fascinating that the Senate is polling at essentially an exact tie right now.
The three most recent firms to poll Massachusetts are Western NE College, UMass, and PPP. Western NE College found Brown ahead by a 47-42 spread; UMass found Brown ahead by a 41-38 spread; and PPP found Warren ahead by a 46-44 spread. This averages out to Brown leading by a 44-42 spread.
Only two firms have polled Nevada so far - PPP and Magellan Strategies. PPP found an exact tie, 45-45, and Magellan Strategies found Berkley ahead by a 46-44 margin. This averages to a Berkley lead 45.5-44.5; after rounding, 46-45.
I'm using RealClearPolitics as the source of all my polling; if I leave anything out, it's their fault, not mine.
The latest UMass poll found Warren ahead of Brown in MA by 4, 43-39. Here's the link:
http://www.umass.edu/newsoffice/images/upload/UMass%20Poll%20detailed%20results_0.pdf