Chances that Thad Cochran wins the GOP runoff

[GaussLaw]

I'm bearish on Cochran's chances and give him a 30% runoff chance.

What  do you think?

[moderatevoter]

I think 30%, but that number would go up if this whole ballot snafu puts Gene Taylor into a run-off, right?

[Mr. Illini]

40%

[Never]

Thad Cochran probably has a 25% chance of winning the runoff. Basically all of McDaniels supporters are going to go back out and vote for him again, and it seems like he could pick up the people who voted for Carey. Cochran's supporters are probably not motivated enough to go and vote in the runoff.

[TDAS04]

Option 2 seems like the best guess.

[7,052,770]

Around 25%, but that could change if Taylor gets into a runoff,  if photogate worsens, or yet another McDaniel gaffe or scandal emerges.

[Del Tachi]

Somewhere around 20-25%.  But any of things that Harry mentioned could push it in an upward direction.

I'd call the race Lean McDaniel at this point. 

[Pessimistic Antineutrino]

McDaniels' base is clearly more motivated than Cochran's as shown by the turnout map (he got more votes form Jones County than Cochran got from Hinds, which has Jackson in it). If Cochran couldn't win this time, his chances in the runoff are negligible at best. I give him about a 25% chance of pulling it off.

[Del Tachi]

I'm revising my earlier estimate, I'd say its somewhere around 50/50. 

[badgate]

Mississippians, can you answer something for me?


Here in Texas, if you voted in the Democratic primary on March 4, you were only allowed to vote in the Democratic primary runoff on May 27. Is the law the same in Mississippi?

Basically what I'm getting at is can people who voted in the Dem primary go and vote in this GOP runoff? I think some of them definitely will try.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Not that it is at all likely, but is it too late for Cochran to file as an independent?

(Not that he has any chance in hell of winning).

[Miles]

Badgate, from what I gather, voters who cast ballots in the Democratic primary are the only ones who can't vote in this runoff.

Yep.

'Not a Mississippian, but I'm close

[nolesfan2011]

Not that it is at all likely, but is it too late for Cochran to file as an independent?

(Not that he has any chance in hell of winning).

I believe so, the filing deadline was like March 31st. That being said MS has easy ballot access laws, one merely has to form a "party" with an official address and elected party "officers" in order to get on the ballot, Thus if it's not to late a "Connecticut for Lieberman" knockoff party type effort is entirely possible.

[Del Tachi]

Not that it is at all likely, but is it too late for Cochran to file as an independent?

(Not that he has any chance in hell of winning).

I believe so, the filing deadline was like March 31st. That being said MS has easy ballot access laws, one merely has to form a "party" with an official address and elected party "officers" in order to get on the ballot, Thus if it's not to late a "Connecticut for Lieberman" knockoff party type effort is entirely possible.

If McDaniel ends up winning the run-off, I'd call this the best possible outcome. 

At the best, a three-way race with a lot of crossover Democrats throws the election to Cochran.  At its worst, Thad doesn't even campaign but is able to garner enough vote to elect Childers as Senator. 

[IceSpear]

Not that it is at all likely, but is it too late for Cochran to file as an independent?

(Not that he has any chance in hell of winning).

I believe so, the filing deadline was like March 31st. That being said MS has easy ballot access laws, one merely has to form a "party" with an official address and elected party "officers" in order to get on the ballot, Thus if it's not to late a "Connecticut for Lieberman" knockoff party type effort is entirely possible.

If McDaniel ends up winning the run-off, I'd call this the best possible outcome. 

At the best, a three-way race with a lot of crossover Democrats throws the election to Cochran.  At its worst, Thad doesn't even campaign but is able to garner enough vote to elect Childers as Senator. 

Wouldn't this actually help McDaniel by splitting the sane vote? (see FL-Sen 2010).

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

Low 20s.

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

Not that it is at all likely, but is it too late for Cochran to file as an independent?

(Not that he has any chance in hell of winning).

I believe so, the filing deadline was like March 31st. That being said MS has easy ballot access laws, one merely has to form a "party" with an official address and elected party "officers" in order to get on the ballot, Thus if it's not to late a "Connecticut for Lieberman" knockoff party type effort is entirely possible.

If McDaniel ends up winning the run-off, I'd call this the best possible outcome.  

At the best, a three-way race with a lot of crossover Democrats throws the election to Cochran.  At its worst, Thad doesn't even campaign but is able to garner enough vote to elect Childers as Senator.  

Wouldn't this actually help McDaniel by splitting the sane vote? (see FL-Sen 2010).

mcdaniel isn't exactly a rubio. more like a joe miller if anything.

[Maxwell]

Not that it is at all likely, but is it too late for Cochran to file as an independent?

(Not that he has any chance in hell of winning).

I believe so, the filing deadline was like March 31st. That being said MS has easy ballot access laws, one merely has to form a "party" with an official address and elected party "officers" in order to get on the ballot, Thus if it's not to late a "Connecticut for Lieberman" knockoff party type effort is entirely possible.

If McDaniel ends up winning the run-off, I'd call this the best possible outcome.  

At the best, a three-way race with a lot of crossover Democrats throws the election to Cochran.  At its worst, Thad doesn't even campaign but is able to garner enough vote to elect Childers as Senator.  

Wouldn't this actually help McDaniel by splitting the sane vote? (see FL-Sen 2010).

mcdaniel isn't exactly a rubio. more like a joe miller if anything.

Travis Childers does kinda look like the Democrat who ran in that race. Maybe Cochran is the next Murkowski.

[TX Conservative Dem]

Cochran has won 6 consecutive statewide elections since 1978 and the national news media are mistaking that he's been in the Senate since 1973 when he was elected to the Senate back in '78.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thad_Cochran

I also give Cochran a 74% chance of winning the runoff based on his deep experience and I've gotta feel that assuming he wins the runoff and general, 2014 is likely his LAST political campaign.

[Del Tachi]

Cochran has won 6 consecutive statewide elections since 1978 and the national news media are mistaking that he's been in the Senate since 1973 when he was elected to the Senate back in '78.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thad_Cochran

I also give Cochran a 74% chance of winning the runoff based on his deep experience and I've gotta feel that assuming he wins the runoff and general, 2014 is likely his LAST political campaign.

Nah, I've already heard talk of Thad 2020 and Thad 2026. 

[NewYorkExpress]

5%

McDaniel is no Christine O'Donnell (as in he holds elected office), and he has every conservative group at his side (especially after Eric Cantor's defeat). It'll take a miracle for Cochran to win this runoff.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Cochran has won 6 consecutive statewide elections since 1978 and the national news media are mistaking that he's been in the Senate since 1973 when he was elected to the Senate back in '78.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thad_Cochran

I also give Cochran a 74% chance of winning the runoff based on his deep experience and I've gotta feel that assuming he wins the runoff and general, 2014 is likely his LAST political campaign.

I view Cochran as the favorite.  McDaniel has campaigned in a way that makes him vulnerable to a Democrat like Childers, even in MS.  Cochran has the advantage of being perceived as more electable in the general election, and the GOP can't punt away sure seats if they're going to take back the Senate.  If control of the Senate weren't so up for grabs, McDaniel would have already won, but no one in the GOP wants to be responsible for this year's Sharron Angle.